| |
1998 |
Pts |
1999 |
Pts |
2000 |
Pts |
2001 |
Pts |
2002 |
Pts |
| 1 |
S Young |
364 |
K Warner |
349 |
D Culpepper |
335 |
K Warner |
297 |
D Culpepper |
314 |
| 2 |
B Favre |
282 |
S Beuerlein |
342 |
J Garcia |
318 |
J Garcia |
283 |
R Gannon |
291 |
| 3 |
Cunningham |
273 |
P Manning |
298 |
P Manning |
286 |
P Manning |
272 |
M Vick |
283 |
| 4 |
S McNair |
256 |
R Gannon |
296 |
R Gannon |
285 |
S McNair |
260 |
P Manning |
268 |
| 5 |
J Plummer |
243 |
B Johnson |
279 |
D McNabb |
284 |
A Brooks |
259 |
D Bledsoe |
257 |
| 6 |
P Manning |
237 |
B Favre |
275 |
E Grbac |
258 |
B Favre |
257 |
A Brooks |
254 |
| 7 |
V Testaverde |
233 |
D Flutie |
256 |
M Brunell |
231 |
R Gannon |
255 |
S McNair |
249 |
| 8 |
T Green |
229 |
D Bledsoe |
254 |
B Favre |
218 |
D McNabb |
250 |
T Brady |
244 |
| 9 |
C Chandler |
225 |
J Kitna |
231 |
S King |
216 |
K Stewart |
239 |
J Garcia |
244 |
| 10 |
D Bledsoe |
210 |
E Grbac |
228 |
S Beuerlein |
213 |
J Fiedler |
232 |
T Green |
239 |
| 11 |
D Marino |
208 |
S McNair |
219 |
K Collins |
212 |
D Culpepper |
216 |
D McNabb |
222 |
| 12 |
T Dilfer |
204 |
J Blake |
218 |
Testaverde |
209 |
T Green |
211 |
B Favre |
222 |
| 13 |
D Flutie |
199 |
M Brunell |
214 |
D Bledsoe |
199 |
M Brunell |
208 |
K Collins |
217 |
| 14 |
J Elway |
194 |
B Griese |
210 |
K Warner |
197 |
K Collins |
205 |
J Plummer |
202 |
| 15 |
K Stewart |
192 |
J George |
205 |
S McNair |
188 |
J Plummer |
205 |
Pennington |
200 |
| 16 |
M Brunell |
186 |
T Aikman |
199 |
K Stewart |
180 |
B Griese |
197 |
J Kitna |
195 |
| 17 |
S Beuerlein |
159 |
T Couch |
189 |
B Griese |
175 |
D Flutie |
196 |
D Brees |
190 |
| 18 |
T Banks |
157 |
J Garcia |
184 |
J Kitna |
167 |
B Johnson |
196 |
B Johnson |
188 |
| 19 |
R Gannon |
157 |
J Harbaugh |
171 |
J Plummer |
163 |
C Weinke |
188 |
Hasselbeck |
185 |
| 20 |
C Batch |
147 |
C Chandler |
169 |
J Fiedler |
160 |
T Couch |
174 |
B Griese |
178 |
| 21 |
K Collins |
145 |
T Banks |
157 |
C Batch |
158 |
J Kitna |
170 |
T Maddox |
175 |
| 22 |
T Aikman |
144 |
K Collins |
153 |
R Johnson |
146 |
E Grbac |
166 |
M Brunell |
172 |
| 23 |
N O'Donnell |
139 |
D Marino |
153 |
J Blake |
142 |
T Brady |
164 |
T Couch |
168 |
| 24 |
J Harbaugh |
130 |
C Batch |
151 |
T Green |
139 |
C Chandler |
162 |
D Carr |
165 |
There is a large disparity in how quarterbacks are scored
across different leagues but the main differences revolve
around the point value of a passing touchdown and yardage
points. Changing those will obviously change the numbers,
but does surprisingly little to change player rankings within
a year and nothing to their relative performance year to year
within their position.
| Rank |
1998 |
1999 |
2000 |
2001 |
2002 |
| 1 |
364 |
349 |
335 |
297 |
314 |
| 2 |
282 |
342 |
318 |
283 |
291 |
| 3 |
273 |
298 |
286 |
272 |
283 |
| 4 |
256 |
296 |
285 |
260 |
268 |
| 5 |
243 |
279 |
284 |
259 |
257 |
| 6 |
237 |
275 |
258 |
257 |
254 |
| Top 6 |
1655 |
1839 |
1766 |
1628 |
1667 |
| 7 |
233 |
256 |
231 |
255 |
249 |
| 8 |
229 |
254 |
218 |
250 |
244 |
| 9 |
225 |
231 |
216 |
239 |
244 |
| 10 |
210 |
228 |
213 |
232 |
239 |
| 11 |
208 |
219 |
212 |
216 |
222 |
| 12 |
204 |
218 |
209 |
211 |
222 |
| 7 - 12 |
1309 |
1406 |
1299 |
1403 |
1420 |
| 13 |
199 |
214 |
199 |
208 |
217 |
| 14 |
194 |
210 |
197 |
205 |
202 |
| 15 |
192 |
205 |
188 |
205 |
200 |
| 16 |
186 |
199 |
180 |
197 |
195 |
| 17 |
159 |
189 |
175 |
196 |
190 |
| 18 |
157 |
184 |
167 |
196 |
188 |
| 19 |
157 |
171 |
163 |
188 |
185 |
| 20 |
147 |
169 |
160 |
174 |
178 |
| 21 |
145 |
157 |
158 |
170 |
175 |
| 22 |
144 |
153 |
146 |
166 |
172 |
| 23 |
139 |
153 |
142 |
164 |
168 |
| 24 |
130 |
151 |
139 |
162 |
165 |
| 13-24 |
1949 |
2155 |
2014 |
2231 |
2235 |
| Total |
4913 |
5400 |
5079 |
5262 |
5322 |
What we have seen the past five years is the top spot
swapped back and forth between Daunte Culpepper and Kurt
Warner. In 1998, Steve Young held the spot which pretty
much was just an older version of Culpepper. The difference
last year was Warner falling off the map.
Each of the past five seasons have shown a relative consistency
in the number of fantasy points scored by the top six or
top twelve players with little variation. Unlike kickers
and defenses, there is a significant difference between
owning the best and 12th best quarterback. An extra five
to eight points per game can easily spell the difference
between losing and winning.
The past two seasons have been remarkably similar through
the top 24 players and one more season like that will cement
the NFL standard of diverse passing games and the value of
a running quarterback. In almost all years, there ended with
a top three quarterbacks which were a clear step up from the
fourth and those from the fourth to the twelfth spot were
less different top to bottom. So where did these guys come
from?
Ends up that they were not really hiding the prior season.
This is not a position with overnight wonders. At least
not outside Kurt Warner and even that no longer applies.
Each
season would normally witness half of the players returning
to a top twelve performance the following season
but that has been steadily increasing. This is a good
thing since it makes them more predictable and reliable.
In the
past if you drafted a quarterback that had a top six
finish in the prior season,
only about two of them would repeat.
That has not changed. But what has changed is that the
past two
| The Next Year a Top 6 QB became: |
| Rank |
98 |
99 |
00 |
01 |
Avg |
| Top 6 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
| 7 - 12 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
3 |
2.3 |
| 13 - 24 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
0.5 |
| Duds |
3 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
1.3 |
seasons, three of the four remaining quarterbacks
in question still at least remained in the top twelve.
Maybe they were not the huge difference makers you wanted,
but by the same token they did not outright kill the chances
of your fantasy team.
The two top six stars of the prior season that did not
make it back to the top 12 at least the next season were
Elvis Grbac (2000) and Warner (2001). Warner had the thumb
injury to point at as well.
What is a little surprising
is that those quarterbacks that fell into the 7th to
12th rankings the previous season
did not fare all that well the next year. Last season
saw a record four of the six at least remain in the top
12
and a high of two of them (Gannon and Culpepper) reclaim
a top six finish. Donovan McNabb was also a
| The Next Year a 7th to 12th QB became: |
| Rank |
98 |
99 |
00 |
01 |
Avg |
| Top 6 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
| 7 - 12 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
0.8 |
| 13 - 24 |
1 |
3 |
2 |
0 |
1.5 |
| Duds |
4 |
2 |
3 |
2 |
3.3 |
lock to
rise
to the top six until his injury. That is consistency almost
unheard of in this position.
Overall, there is a definite trend for the best fantasy
quarterbacks to remain either the best or at least a viable
starter for a fantasy team. The reasoning is explored further
in a companion article this season - The Running Quarterback.
The top pocket passers like Manning remain productive enough
to bang around the top echelon and the rushing quarterbacks
are scoring enough points either by pass or run to offer
almost unheard of consistency in fantasy points for the
quarterback position.
This is the reason why the quarterbacks appear so deep
this season. Every year witnesses at least a couple of
players having a big passing year, but they are now squeaking
into the top dozen fantasy quarterbacks that is becoming
resident with the very best pure passers and the top rushing
quarterbacks. Certainly having the very best quarterback
makes a difference, but only Manning and Culpepper present
the lowest risk to be a top player. There are a full dozen
quarterbacks that will either have a big passing year or
that will have a good rushing season and pass enough to
challenge the highest levels.
After Manning and Culpepper, the two top of their style
of play, the others all offer a similar risk and reward.
The fantasy points produced by quarterbacks do not change
much year to year and progressively each season the actual
names of the quarterbacks are changing less and less.
|