Like no other fantasy position, runningbacks have the sharpest decline and the greatest disparity between the best and worst of the top 12 in their position. While most positions see only a 20 to 50 point difference in those dozen players, runningbacks see 130 to 150 point differences. That is a definite advantage that is hard to overcome.

Last season was the highest scoring for the top six and top twelve in the past five years. In almost all years there are two 300 point runningbacks and after the steep decline of the top three or four, the drop becomes less from player to player. Still, it is the most significant of all positions and supports why owning more than one great back is such a major advantage.

There is a consistent trend of every other year being higher and then lower in scoring and partially this can be explained by injuries and returning players. If that remains true, 2003 would be another lower season and that is hard to see during the summer when there appears to be a strong set of candidates for the top dozen spots. Regardless, even if the spike up and down holds true, the position is no less valuable. Consider that their scoring overall declines rapidly and remember that most leagues use at least two in starting lineups. Only the top dozen quarterbacks matter for starting rosters, but 24 runningbacks are used each week.

Part of that is to be expected in a position that routinely sees a player nicked up for a few games a year. The worst part is that most seasons see three or four of those top six players fall out of the top 12. These are highly drafted players that are hurting their fantasy team. Your first picks alone cannot win you a championship, but they can lose it for you and these are likely the ones poking holes in the bottom of your boat. Since normally only two runningbacks repeat a Top 6 finish, that means only two from the group of Holmes, Williams, Tomlinson, Portis, Alexander and McAllister will likely repeat. Though Holmes is still a health question, it is hard at this time to imagine that most likely three of them will not even end up with a Top 12 showing. Throw in Faulk and you have the first seven picks in most drafts this summer. Several leaguemates of yours will not be happy this season.

Just as frustrating is hoping that a player that ended up in the 7th to 12th best fantasy season the year before will repeat or improve. It just does not happen nearly as often as desired. In the past two years, only two of them have done as well or improved while normally four of them perform to the level of a #2 fantasy runningback or worse. Guaranteed - these guys are getting drafted before the second round is complete. More often in the first round most likely.

LaDainian Tomlinson and Ricky Williams made the jump up while the other four from 2001 failed to breech the Top 12 in 2002. The previous year only Stephen Davis and Curtis Martin held true. Before that Charlie Garner, Ricky Watters and Martin did not improve but held the same level.

For this season, this grouping from 2002 has Barber, Henry, Garner, George, Taylor and Ahman Green. Which four will fall? Barber, Henry and Garner come off career years. George enjoyed more TD's thanks to McNair's back and Taylor was healthy all season for the first time. Ahman Green fell off from 2001 already and now may give short yardage scores to Davenport. If the season follows form, only one of them gets better.

Overall, less than half of the Top 12 will make it back the following season in any given year but a Top 6 has the best chance of staying as good the next season. Stands to reason why they are invariably among the very first drafts picks in the fantasy draft. Last season was following the odd every other year trend where only two of the top 12 became duds the next season. If the consistent trend holds, we are due for another six duds year which seems unlikely. Then again, I am sure we all thought that in 1998 and 2000.

Fantasy drafters, and more than a few self-professed experts, love to live in the past season when they make their own rankings and draft their teams. And yet the Top 12 from the prior season usually only has slightly less than half make it back to the Top 12 the next season. And yet, these 12 will all be drafted by the end of the second round and perhaps earlier. The good news is that last season picking a Top 12 from the previous season yielded ten players that at least stayed worthy of starting by ending in the Top 24 the next season. The bad news is that the odd every other year trend says that happens only in odd-numbered years and this is 2002. Only half of the Top 12 has been sticking around the Top 24 the next year.

So if players the following year have a hard time repeating, where do the top 12 players come from the prior year? The greatest number come from outside the Top 12 the year before, but it is fairly evenly distributed where they were the prior season. Of the dozen players ranked 13th to 24th in performances the prior season, only two of them rise up into the top dozen, almost the same number of rookies who splashdown well into the NFL each season.

This season appears to be a wasteland for rookie runners. There are no hot freshman runners for the first time in many years and the string may end up finally broken. If one does do well, it will have to be by replacing a top back who was injured early in the season, because otherwise they are not going to get the opportunity.

This is all good for fantasy players since merely picking a top back from the prior season is hardly a guarantee of success. By the same token, determining exactly whom will be one of the risers is not only an artform, it relies on unforeseen circumstances to pass in many cases.

This season will be different than the past in a couple of ways. There are no hot rookies to draft so previous season stats are going to be key, even if they are only mildly predictive of future production. This season has an unusual number of runningbacks playing that have had great seasons in the past, perhaps not recently, but they have shown the ability to reach the top level before and the schedule, blocking, team health and coaching will figure heavily into the fortunes of those who make it into the Top 12 for 2003.

If you select two rushers with your first two picks, the chances are favorable that you will get at least one of them right. If you make it right on both, you will be harder to beat this season and with fewer risk picks from rookies and the like, those early runningback picks make more sense than usual.