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5 Year Fantasy Analysis - Tight Ends
by David M. Dorey
July 10, 2003

Quarterback

Running Back

Wide Receiver

Tight End

Kickers

Defenses

	1998	Pts	1999	Pts	2000	Pts	2001	Pts	2002	Pts
1	S Sharpe	130	W Walls	146	T Gonzalez	167	T Gonzalez	124	T Heap	120
2	C Cleeland	98	T Gonzalez	145	S Sharpe	105	M Pollard	117	T Gonzalez	111
3	B Coates	95	R Dudley	105	F Jones	100	S Sharpe	86	J Shockey	94
4	F Wycheck	84	D Sloan	78	K Brady	87	D Clark	86	S Sharpe	82
5	R Dudley	77	F Wycheck	75	C Lewis	86	F Wycheck	83	B Franks	82
6	A Glover	76	F Jones	72	F Wycheck	85	B Chamberlain	79	M Pollard	77
7	W Walls	74	D Lafleur	69	K Dilger	64	B Franks	79	B Miller	73
8	F Jones	73	J Riemersma	67	J Riemersma	62	D Sloan	78	A Crumpler	68
9	M Chmura	73	P Mitchell	65	D Carswell	61	W Walls	70	R McMichael	67
10	T Gonzalez	66	B Chamberlain	57	M Pollard	58	E Conwell	70	K Brady	65
11	O Santiago	64	M Pollard	56	J Harris	56	C Lewis	70	C Fauria	62
12	T Davis	63	K Dilger	54	S Alexander	53	J Riemersma	69	E Conwell	59
13	J Riemersma	59	R Williams	53	R Dudley	52	F Jones	58	I Mili	58
14	S Alexander	58	D Moore	52	W Walls	50	A Becht	56	C Lewis	56
15	K Brady	56	L Broughton	46	A Glover	46	D Carswell	52	S Alexander	52
16	M Pollard	54	B Coates	44	D Clark	46	E Johnson	51	A Becht	50
17	I Smith	53	S Alexander	43	D Sloan	45	D Moore	47	D Jolley	48
18	T Drayton	46	D Jones	41	I Mili	44	A Crumpler	45	M Ricks	43
19	J Mcwilliams	45	K Brady	39	R Kelly	41	K Brady	42	W Walls	42
20	J Harris	44	T McGee	39	D Moore	41	K Dilger	41	J Kleinsasser	42
21	C Fauria	44	C Cleeland	36	G Clark	41	R Williams	41	F Wycheck	41
22	E Green	42	J Harris	35	B Franks	38	C Cleeland	35	K Dilger	39
23	D Moore	42	C Fauria	33	A Shea	36	E Williams	34	J Stevens	38
24	P Mitchell	39	A Glover	33	J Thomason	32	J Wiggins	33	F Jones	36

Rank	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002
1	130	146	167	124	120
2	98	145	105	117	111
3	95	105	100	86	94
4	84	78	87	86	82
5	77	75	86	83	82
6	76	72	85	79	77
Top 6	560	621	630	575	566
7	74	69	64	79	73
8	73	67	62	78	68
9	73	65	61	70	67
10	66	57	58	70	65
11	64	56	56	70	62
12	63	54	53	69	59
7 - 12	413	368	354	436	394
13	59	53	52	58	58
14	58	52	50	56	56
15	56	46	46	52	52
16	54	44	46	51	50
17	53	43	45	47	48
18	46	41	44	45	43
19	45	39	41	42	42
20	44	39	41	41	42
21	44	36	41	41	41
22	42	35	38	35	39
23	42	33	36	34	38
24	39	33	32	33	36
13-24	582	494	512	535	545
Total	1555	1483	1496	1546	1505

Tight Ends - don't you just hate them?

The position is often lumped in with receivers which effectively removes all but a half dozen from being used. Using the standard performance scoring, the very best tight end only scores at a level of about the 24th best receiver. Even more reason to disregard them if the position is not split out by itself.

But for those leagues that do use them, there is some advantage to having one that actually contributes more than the odd couple of points each week. As with most positions, there typically shakes out to be a top three each season with a noticeable drop for the rest. The advantage is not nearly as pronounced as would be thought by those people reaching early to snag a top one in the fourth or fifth rounds of the draft.

If you get a top three tight end, and let's be serious here and say Gonzalez and one of the two other guys, you will see about three points a game from your gamble. After the top six are gone, there is a very gently sloping line for scoring on the rest. Since their seasonal totals are largely the result of a handful of touchdowns, there is little consistency in them.

Taking a top six tight end from the previous season is as predictive of the next year as seen with any position. This is because by and large most offenses do not make significant use of the position and of those that do, only a handful of tight ends are capable of making a success of the opportunity. In the past five years, there had been Tony Gonzalez and Shannon Sharpe as residents of the top. Anyone else has never made it to the top three more than once. Certainly Heap and Shockey appear likely to repeat, and their success will spawn other teams to try it, but

Top 6 TE next year became:
	98	99	00	01	Avg
Top 6	2	3	2	3	2.5
7-12	0	0	1	0	0.3
13-24	3	3	2	1	2.3
Duds	1	0	1	2	1

beyond them there is little reason to grab an early tight end. Though the top six hold fairly well since it does not change with Gonzalez and Sharpe, the rest of the tight ends that were in the top six have a bad tendency to take a tumble the next year.

Marcus Pollard and Bubba Franks were the only tight ends that were in the 7th to 12th bracket one year and then rose to the Top 6 the following season since 1999. About half of those names you got to know one year as decent

7th - 12th TE next year became:

98 99 00 01 Avg

Top 6 3 0 1 1 1.3

7-12 0 3 1 1 1.3

13-24 0 0 1 2 0.8

Duds 3 3 3 2 2.8

tight ends become duds the following year. No wonder tight ends are afterthoughts - they should be.

This is different if tight ends are given higher scoring points than any other position though the relative value within the position of players do not change. One of the greatest oddities of tight ends is that other than Shannon Sharpe and Denver, no team that employs heavy use of a tight end has been particularly effective at even reaching the playoffs, let alone winning there. Before you write about Ben Coates, think about how long ago that was.

Top 6 TE the prior season was:
	99	00	01	02	Avg
Top 6	2	3	2	3	1.3
7-12	3	0	2	1	1.3
13-24	0	1	1	0	0.8
Deeper	1	2	0	2	2.8

Top scoring tight ends that are new to the upper fantasy tier have been almost always young players with the exception of Pollard and Lewis. Over the past five years, new guys like Cleeland, Dudley, Gonzalez, Heap, Shockey and Franks have been pleasant surprises from the start, even if they were unable to sustain their first big year. Last season Heap, Shockey, Miller, Crumpler and McMichael were new names to chase. It is a small position in terms of fantasy significant players and outside the tried and true Gonzalez and likely Shockey/Heap, new names do pop up each season and sometimes even rookies.

If your scoring favors tight ends, get a top three. Otherwise, join the rest of the league in the 12th round looking at depth charts.

Quarterback

Running Back

Wide Receiver

Tight End

Kickers

Defenses