Most season yields three 200+ point receivers, yielding the standard "Big 3" for any given position. The step down to the rest is not nearly as pronounced as is seen in other positions. There is an advantage to having a top receiver, about 50 points a season or three points a game overall between the best and the sixth best.

That difference is smoothed out dramatically in the next levels, with small incremental changes from player to player down through the top 24 receivers. The difference between the best and sixth may be 50 points, but the difference between that sixth and twelfth is only about one point a game. Whoopee.

After the top 24 receivers, the decline in scoring is smoother than any other position because there are far more worthwhile receivers in fantasy terms due to each team employing two or three of them in their offensive scheme. And given the fact that receivers are notoriously inconsistent anyway makes folly of scooping up guys too early once the top six are gone. Since they are among the hardest to predict, your chances are better served with getting value elsewhere where the decline is much more rapid like receivers or even backup quarterbacks.

Selecting a receiver that finished from 7th to 12th rarely ends up with a better than expected next season.

7th - 12th WR next year became:
	98	99	00	01	Avg
Top 6	2	0	1	0	0.8
7-12	0	1	2	2	1.3
13-24	1	1	1	2	1.3
Deeper	3	4	2	2	2.8

Normally four of the six will not perform as well and at least two of them will end up being replaced on your team during the season.

Price, Horn, Burress, Rice, Coles and Driver all seem to be in situations to do well, but it is a safe bet that only two of them will likely perform as well. Horn is getting older and Rice is already old. Price and Coles have changed teams. Only Driver and Burress seem to have all the variables going for them but that is no guarantee.

Those receivers that were #2 on fantasy teams last season, ending 13th to 24th in performance last season,

13th-24th WR next year became:
	98	99	00	01	Avg
Top 6	3	2	5	3	3.3
7-12	0	4	3	2	2.3
13-24	4	1	1	4	2.5
Deeper	5	5	3	3	4

are as likely to fall as they are to rise. The good news is that about three of them will fill in the top six but three others will get worse. Considering where they can be drafted, having a 75% chance of them at least playing as well is a good bet and it is from this level you should be taking your #2 and #3 receivers. That is actually one of the most predictable groupings for any position from year to year.

The group composed of Robinson, Booker, Holt, Bruce, Chad Johnson, Jimmy Smith, Gardner, Morgan, Keyshawn Johnson, Conway, Rod Smith and Galloway will be putting at least two players into the Top 6 for 2003. Bruce, Jimmy and Keyshawn Johnson, Rod Smith and Galloway are all older players seemingly on the decline. Conway changes teams and Holt and Bruce await proof that Warner A shows up instead of Warner B. Most well positioned by this would seem Robinson, Chad Johnson, Gardner or Morgan but with any receiver you can find downsides that will impact them if only from their quarterback.

Since those Top 12 receivers are the main difference makers in the position, where did they come from? Last season saw a low of only four of them coming from the Top 12 of the past season and each season normally sees around five of them that are breaking out or finally returning to high scoring ways after some time away.

Top 12 WR was what the prior season?
	99	00	01	02	Avg
Top 6	2	5	5	3	3.8
7-12	2	1	3	1	2.8
13-24	2	1	0	3	1.5
Deeper	6	5	4	5	5

What the position essentially shows is that players develop or become valuable in an offense over time, and that can be forecasted with some success with the third year receivers or "second year with the team" players. None of the top 12 were new to their team and none of them were rookies.

What the past five seasons has shown is that there are Owens, Moss and Harrison as resident great receivers and a smattering of good but not great others. The difference in scoring supports the idea that once the top half dozen or so runningbacks are gone, taking a top three receiver makes sense as long as you are able to still get two decent backs in your next two picks. With less sleeper backs expected this season, even taking a top three receiver may not be as great a net advantage as securing a back and holding off and raiding the 13th to 24th group from last year..

This position takes time to develop and is a bit more stable than others once success is reached. There are enough breakout performances that come from deeper in your draft for receivers to make taking other positions a bigger priority early on.