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Receivers are the deepest position, but they are also
the most inconsistent and difficult to predict. Let's see
see how an average draft went in 2002.
| Drafted |
Actual |
Wide Receiver |
NFL |
PPG |
| 1 |
5 |
Moss,Randy |
MIN |
11.1 |
| 2 |
1 |
Owens,Terrell |
SF |
15.5 |
| 3 |
2 |
Harrison,Marvin |
IND |
14.6 |
| 4 |
38 |
Boston,David |
ARI |
7.0 |
| 5 |
17 |
Holt,Torry |
STL |
9.3 |
| 6 |
26 |
Smith,Rod |
DEN |
7.9 |
| 7 |
10 |
Horn,Joe |
NO |
10.6 |
| 8 |
23 |
Johnson,Keyshawn |
TB |
8.5 |
| 9 |
19 |
Bruce,Isaac |
STL |
9.1 |
| 10 |
4 |
Moulds,Eric |
BUF |
11.4 |
| 11 |
48 |
Brown,Tim |
OAK |
6.3 |
| 12 |
20 |
Smith,Jimmy |
JAX |
8.8 |
| 13 |
22 |
Mason,Derrick |
TEN |
8.8 |
| 14 |
9 |
Burress,Plaxico |
PIT |
10.6 |
| 15 |
24 |
Jackson,Darrell |
SEA |
8.2 |
| 16 |
60 |
Glenn,Terry |
GB |
5.8 |
| 17 |
59 |
Johnson,Kevin |
CLE |
5.8 |
| 18 |
46 |
Chambers,Chris |
MIA |
6.5 |
| 19 |
34 |
Brown,Troy |
NE |
7.4 |
| 20 |
81 |
Morton,Johnnie |
KC |
4.0 |
| 21 |
52 |
McCaffrey,Ed |
DEN |
6.2 |
| 22 |
16 |
Booker,Marty |
CHI |
9.4 |
| 23 |
14 |
Rice,Jerry |
OAK |
9.9 |
| 24 |
21 |
Gardner,Rod |
WAS |
8.8 |
| 25 |
35 |
Thrash,James |
PHI |
7.3 |
| 26 |
11 |
Coles,Laveranues |
NYJ |
10.4 |
| 27 |
6 |
Toomer,Amani |
NYG |
11.0 |
| 28 |
41 |
McCardell,Keenan |
TB |
6.8 |
| 29 |
74 |
Ismail,Qadry |
IND |
4.3 |
| 30 |
32 |
Muhammad,Muhsin |
CAR |
7.5 |
| 31 |
8 |
Conway,Curtis |
SD |
10.7 |
| 32 |
7 |
Price,Peerless |
BUF |
10.8 |
| 33 |
27 |
Galloway,Joey |
DAL |
7.8 |
| 34 |
3 |
Ward,Hines |
PIT |
13.6 |
| 35 |
66 |
Freeman,Antonio |
PHI |
4.8 |
| 36 |
58 |
Dyson,Kevin |
TEN |
5.9 |
| 37 |
NA |
Robinson,Marcus |
CHI |
--- |
| 38 |
30 |
Taylor,Travis |
BAL |
7.8 |
| 39 |
NA |
Alexander,Derrick |
MIN |
--- |
| 40 |
37 |
Schroeder,Bill |
DET |
7.2 |
| 41 |
51 |
Warrick,Peter |
CIN |
6.2 |
| 42 |
15 |
Robinson,Koren |
SEA |
9.5 |
|
| Actual |
Drafted |
Wide Receiver |
NFL |
PPG |
| 1 |
2 |
Owens,Terrell |
SF |
15.5 |
| 2 |
3 |
Harrison,Marvin |
IND |
14.6 |
| 3 |
34 |
Ward,Hines |
PIT |
13.6 |
| 4 |
10 |
Moulds,Eric |
BUF |
11.4 |
| 5 |
1 |
Moss,Randy |
MIN |
11.1 |
| 6 |
27 |
Toomer,Amani |
NYG |
11.0 |
| 7 |
32 |
Price,Peerless |
BUF |
10.8 |
| 8 |
31 |
Conway,Curtis |
SD |
10.7 |
| 9 |
14 |
Burress,Plaxico |
PIT |
10.6 |
| 10 |
7 |
Horn,Joe |
NO |
10.6 |
| 11 |
26 |
Coles,Laveranues |
NYJ |
10.4 |
| 12 |
NA |
Johnson,Chad |
CIN |
10.1 |
| 13 |
57 |
Driver,Donald |
GB |
10.1 |
| 14 |
23 |
Rice,Jerry |
OAK |
9.9 |
| 15 |
42 |
Robinson,Koren |
SEA |
9.5 |
| 16 |
22 |
Booker,Marty |
CHI |
9.4 |
| 17 |
5 |
Holt,Torry |
STL |
9.3 |
| 18 |
71 |
Morgan,Quincy |
CLE |
9.1 |
| 19 |
9 |
Bruce,Isaac |
STL |
9.1 |
| 20 |
12 |
Smith,Jimmy |
JAX |
8.8 |
| 21 |
24 |
Gardner,Rod |
WAS |
8.8 |
| 22 |
13 |
Mason,Derrick |
TEN |
8.8 |
| 23 |
8 |
Johnson,Keyshawn |
TB |
8.5 |
| 24 |
15 |
Jackson,Darrell |
SEA |
8.2 |
| 25 |
NA |
Northcutt,Dennis |
CLE |
8.0 |
| 26 |
6 |
Smith,Rod |
DEN |
7.9 |
| 27 |
33 |
Galloway,Joey |
DAL |
7.8 |
| 28 |
52 |
Chrebet,Wayne |
NYJ |
7.8 |
| 29 |
45 |
Stallworth,Donte' |
NO |
7.8 |
| 30 |
38 |
Taylor,Travis |
BAL |
7.8 |
| 31 |
NA |
Pinkston,Todd |
PHI |
7.6 |
| 32 |
30 |
Muhammad,Muhsin |
CAR |
7.5 |
| 33 |
NA |
Porter,Jerry |
OAK |
7.5 |
| 34 |
19 |
Brown,Troy |
NE |
7.4 |
| 35 |
25 |
Thrash,James |
PHI |
7.3 |
| 36 |
56 |
Finneran,Brian |
ATL |
7.2 |
| 37 |
40 |
Schroeder,Bill |
DET |
7.2 |
| 38 |
4 |
Boston,David |
ARI |
7.0 |
| 39 |
46 |
Hilliard,Ike |
NYG |
6.9 |
| 40 |
51 |
Hakim,Az-Zahir |
DET |
6.8 |
| 41 |
28 |
McCardell,Keenan |
TB |
6.8 |
| 42 |
72 |
Patten,David |
NE |
6.6 |
|
Randy Moss had a slow start, but he still managed a respectable
fifth in points per game. David Boston was injured early
on, struggled with it before finally bowing out for the
season and eventually his career since he moves to San
Diego in the Great Arizona Receiver Escape.
Other than Joe Horn, all the receivers taken from fourth
to ninth in the draft were major disappointments. And to
think those teams passed on solid quarterbacks or upside
runningbacks when they made the pick.
Eric Moulds was the best surprise of the draft, along
with Hines Ward and Peerless Price. Moulds was a known
quality that finally received a bigtime passer in Drew
Bledsoe. Peerless Price decided to breakout during the
leather hailstorm in Boston last season. Hines Ward went
from a respectable, solid receiver to being a stud almost
overnight. With the lack of a formidable rushing game,
along with Tommy Maddox showing what a pocket passer could
do, the Steelers found themselves finally getting the payoff
from having drafted so many first round receivers in the
past few years.
Plaxico Burress also broke out in Pittsburgh though he
needed Maddox at the helm to do it.
Lavernues Coles also turned in his first great season
and was rewarded with Bruce Snyder's riches in the offseason.
Lastly Curtis Conway had a good season going but missed
three games and Koren Robinson ended the year at Mach speed
as he too broke out for the first time.
It was an unpredictable season for receivers, unlike quarterbacks
and runningbacks that showed surprising stability. Of the
first 21 receivers drafted, over half of them did not play
worthy of a #2 fantasy receiver. That's just brutal. But
that is about normal too.
The actual
numbers favored the top three as is almost always the case
each season. Considering the large number of disappointments
in the position, after the top three are taken tread
lightly unless you are certain your pick has more upside
than risk.
What is amazing is that a fantasy team could have built
a monster set of receivers and never had taken any before
about the sixth round. Hines Ward, Amani Toomer, Peerless
Price and Curtis Conway all could be had cheaply considering
they all ended with top eight numbers for the season. Throw
in Donald Driver and Lavernues Coles and the mid-round
selections of receivers provided a bonanza.
After the top three, the points per game dropped noticeably
and the decline in points was very gradual. Peerless Price
was a nice sleeper, but in reality his 7th place performance
was only two points per game better than the 22nd best
season. Each point matters to be sure, but in a position
that is so unpredictable, getting those picks right is
a challenge.
The season also witnessed very nice years turned in by
Chad Johnson, Todd Pinkston and and Jerry Porter who were
not often drafted in many leagues. Not surprisingly, they
were all around 25 years old and entering their second
or third seasons.
Receivers are showing that the old three year rule is
being changed to a two year transition period. In their
second season, we saw encouraging performances by Brian
Finneran, Rod Gardner, Chad Johnson, Pinkston, Porter and
Dez White.
It is notable that within the best 24 receivers, those
first two starting fantasy receivers on teams in your league,
that only Price, Burress and Bruce made it there and yet
were the #2 receiving option for their team. The #1 wideout
for a team is much more likely to perform better than the
#2 from another team as is shown each season. Let's look
at the last three and see who the busts and undervalued
players.
In a position as deep as receivers, there is no sense
in listing out all the busts and undervalued players and
this look should be considered more about the position
than any single player. I have highlight the undervalued
players in yellow and the busts in red though a bit subjective
on my part.
| Draft |
Actual |
2000 PPG |
Draft |
Actual |
2001 PPG |
Draft |
Actual |
2002 PPG |
| 1 |
4 |
Harrison,Marvin |
1 |
6 |
Moss,Randy |
1 |
5 |
Moss,Randy |
| 2 |
2 |
Moss,Randy |
2 |
1 |
Harrison,Marvin |
2 |
1 |
Owens,Terrell |
| 3 |
7 |
Bruce,Isaac |
3 |
2 |
Owens,Terrell |
3 |
2 |
Harrison,Marvin |
| 4 |
18 |
Robinson,Marcus |
4 |
9 |
Holt,Torry |
4 |
38 |
Boston,David |
| 5 |
16 |
Freeman,Antonio |
5 |
20 |
Bruce,Isaac |
5 |
17 |
Holt,Torry |
| 6 |
8 |
Smith,Jimmy |
6 |
3 |
Smith,Rod |
6 |
26 |
Smith,Rod |
| 7 |
13 |
Moulds,Eric |
7 |
33 |
Carter,Cris |
7 |
10 |
Horn,Joe |
| 8 |
Dud |
Westbrook,M |
8 |
35 |
Moulds,Eric |
8 |
23 |
Johnson,Key |
| 9 |
11 |
Carter,Cris |
9 |
46 |
Alexander,D |
9 |
19 |
Bruce,Isaac |
| 10 |
23 |
Johnson,Key |
10 |
8 |
Horn,Joe |
10 |
4 |
Moulds,Eric |
| 11 |
Dud |
Galloway,Joey |
11 |
Dud |
McCaffrey,Ed |
11 |
48 |
Brown,Tim |
| 12 |
17 |
Muhammad,M |
12 |
10 |
Brown,Tim |
12 |
20 |
Smith,Jimmy |
| 13 |
12 |
Brown,Tim |
13 |
24 |
Johnson,Key |
13 |
22 |
Mason,Derrick |
| 14 |
37 |
Crowell,G |
14 |
7 |
Smith,Jimmy |
14 |
9 |
Burress,Plaxico |
| 15 |
6 |
Holt,Torry |
15 |
4 |
Boston,David |
15 |
24 |
Jackson,Darrell |
| 16 |
14 |
Toomer,Amani |
16 |
37 |
Freeman,Antonio |
16 |
60 |
Glenn,Terry |
| 17 |
9 |
McCaffrey,Ed |
17 |
29 |
Toomer,Amani |
17 |
59 |
Johnson,Kevin |
| 18 |
Dud |
Mayes,Derrick |
18 |
52 |
Westbrook,M |
18 |
46 |
Chambers,Chris |
| 19 |
24 |
Glenn,Terry |
19 |
51 |
Muhammad,M |
19 |
34 |
Brown,Troy |
| 20 |
76 |
Johnson,Kevin |
20 |
Dud |
Crowell,Germane |
20 |
81 |
Morton,Johnnie |
| 21 |
32 |
Connell,Albert |
21 |
50 |
Chrebet,Wayne |
21 |
52 |
McCaffrey,Ed |
| 22 |
Dud |
Jeffers,Patrick |
22 |
17 |
Jackson,Darrell |
22 |
16 |
Booker,Marty |
| 23 |
Dud |
Pickens,Carl |
23 |
5 |
Mason,Derrick |
23 |
14 |
Rice,Jerry |
| 24 |
39 |
Warrick,Peter |
24 |
61 |
Warrick,Peter |
24 |
21 |
Gardner,Rod |
| 25 |
1 |
Owens,Terrell |
25 |
18 |
McCardell,K |
25 |
35 |
Thrash,James |
| 26 |
22 |
Chrebet,Wayne |
26 |
21 |
Thrash,James |
26 |
11 |
Coles,L |
| 27 |
3 |
Smith,Rod |
27 |
Dud |
Robinson,Marcus |
27 |
6 |
Toomer,Amani |
| 28 |
44 |
Mathis,Terance |
28 |
54 |
Taylor,Travis |
28 |
41 |
McCardell,K |
| 29 |
51 |
Ismail,Raghib |
29 |
47 |
Galloway,Joey |
29 |
74 |
Ismail,Qadry |
| 30 |
38 |
Ismail,Qadry |
30 |
12 |
Rice,Jerry |
30 |
32 |
Muhammad,M |
| 31 |
Dud |
Burress,Plaxico |
31 |
14 |
Johnson,Kevin |
31 |
8 |
Conway,Curtis |
| 32 |
Dud |
Scott,Darnay |
32 |
45 |
Gadsden,Oronde |
32 |
7 |
Price,Peerless |
| 33 |
19 |
McCardell,K |
33 |
13 |
Conway,Curtis |
33 |
27 |
Galloway,Joey |
| 34 |
25 |
Schroeder,Bill |
34 |
70 |
Terrell,David |
34 |
3 |
Ward,Hines |
| 35 |
Dud |
Moore,Rob |
35 |
11 |
Schroeder,Bill |
35 |
66 |
Freeman,Antonio |
| 36 |
Dud |
Dyson,Kevin |
36 |
Dud |
Glenn,Terry |
36 |
58 |
Dyson,Kevin |
| 37 |
60 |
Taylor,Travis |
37 |
40 |
Stokes,J.J. |
37 |
Dud |
Robinson,Marcus |
| 38 |
80 |
Engram,Bobby |
38 |
69 |
Robinson,Koren |
38 |
30 |
Taylor,Travis |
| 39 |
50 |
Price,Peerless |
39 |
19 |
Ismail,Qadry |
39 |
Dud |
Alexander,D |
| 40 |
45 |
Morton,Johnnie |
40 |
65 |
Mathis,Terance |
40 |
37 |
Schroeder,Bill |
| 41 |
5 |
Alexander,D |
41 |
15 |
Brown,Troy |
41 |
51 |
Warrick,Peter |
| 42 |
10 |
Horn,Joe |
42 |
22 |
Morton,Johnnie |
42 |
15 |
Robinson,Koren |
| 43 |
15 |
Boston,David |
43 |
68 |
Hakim,Az-Zahir |
43 |
Dud |
Green,Jacquez |
| 44 |
36 |
Dawkins,Sean |
44 |
27 |
Jackson,Willie |
44 |
100 |
Stokes,J.J. |
| 45 |
73 |
Martin,Tony |
45 |
43 |
Scott,Darnay |
45 |
29 |
Stallworth,D |
| 46 |
31 |
Hayes,Donald |
46 |
Dud |
Minnis,Marvin |
46 |
39 |
Hilliard,Ike |
| 47 |
27 |
Rice,Jerry |
47 |
49 |
McKnight,James |
47 |
77 |
Randle El,A |
| 48 |
77 |
Reed,Jake |
48 |
66 |
Connell,Albert |
48 |
76 |
Moss,Santana |
| 49 |
69 |
Moore,Herman |
49 |
28 |
Burress,Plaxico |
49 |
50 |
Bates,D'Wayne |
| 50 |
35 |
Sanders,Frank |
50 |
Dud |
Hatchette,M |
50 |
Dud |
Jackson,Willie |
| 51 |
20 |
Hilliard,Ike |
51 |
23 |
Coles,L |
51 |
40 |
Hakim,Az-Zahir |
| 52 |
72 |
Dwight,Tim |
52 |
36 |
Hilliard,Ike |
52 |
28 |
Chrebet,Wayne |
| 53 |
33 |
Johnson,Charles |
53 |
32 |
Dyson,Kevin |
53 |
65 |
Pathon,Jerome |
| 54 |
70 |
Thigpen,Yancey |
54 |
80 |
Stokley,Brandon |
54 |
61 |
Terrell,David |
| 55 |
47 |
Hakim,Az-Zahir |
55 |
44 |
Gardner,Rod |
55 |
95 |
Westbrook,M |
| 56 |
29 |
Conway,Curtis |
56 |
83 |
Wayne,Reggie |
56 |
36 |
Finneran,Brian |
| 57 |
56 |
Wilkins,Terrence |
57 |
26 |
Graham,Jeff |
57 |
13 |
Driver,Donald |
| 58 |
Dud |
Bradford,Corey |
58 |
74 |
Mitchell,Freddie |
58 |
63 |
White,Dez |
| 59 |
Dud |
Edwards,Troy |
59 |
Dud |
Moss,Santana |
59 |
97 |
Ferguson,Robert |
| 60 |
41 |
Jefferson,Shawn |
60 |
Dud |
Mayes,Derrick |
60 |
43 |
Bryant,Antonio |
What the past three drafts have shown
is a surprising number of flops or overvalued players
being taken in the 4th to 11th receiver taken in each
draft. Of the 24 players in that grouping over the
past three years, there has been only six of them perform
to expectations and sixteen of them were a waste of
an early pick.
Another bad area has been the 16th
to the 21st receiver taken which has been almost all
bad picks as the starting receivers were filled out
on teams. These players were either receivers coming
off good years that the average person was a little
leery about or they were players that were admittedly
risky but seemed worthy of the pick. They weren't as
it ended up.
It is also notable that difference
making receivers rarely ever came after the 44th one
was selected unless they were never drafted. This means
that the #2 receivers on teams that are not commonly
good passing teams are rarely worth the pick. Taking
a shot with second or third year player that could
emerge was the only way to make a difference to your
starting lineup.
And then there was Donald Driver,
who last season broke so many rules that considering
him only confuses what is true for all other receivers.
The position does not score well
beyond the top players and the sleepers more likely
come from nowhere than deeper in the draft. With receivers,
always look for upside players with good quarterbacks
to increase your odds.
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