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Now entering the seventh year for this type of analysis
for The Huddle, each NFL team was matched against what
their schedule will be this fall. Using the defensive statistics
from the last half of the 2002 season, with removal of
the highest and lowest outputs from the final ten weeks
of the season (excluding week 17), each scheduled was compared
to the defense it faced.
If it faced a defense that was in the top 12 for allowing
the most fantasy points, the matchup was considered as "good".
If it faced a defense that was in the bottom 12 for allowing
fantasy points (AKA the stingy defenses), then the matchup
was considered as "bad". The eight teams which
were "in the middle" of allowing fantasy points
were considered neither good nor bad.
The result of that analysis yielded this distribution
of defenses:
| Most
points allowed (good) |
Middle
tier |
Least
Points allowed (bad) |
| QB |
RB |
WR |
| ARZ |
24.0 |
CHI |
26.7 |
ARZ |
27.3 |
| MIN |
23.7 |
ARZ |
26.2 |
SD |
25.6 |
| SD |
23.3 |
SD |
24.9 |
MIN |
25.0 |
| NO |
20.2 |
SEA |
24.7 |
CIN |
24.2 |
| DET |
20.0 |
DEN |
24.6 |
DET |
24.0 |
| KC |
19.9 |
NO |
24.1 |
SF |
23.5 |
| CIN |
19.6 |
STL |
22.8 |
NYG |
22.0 |
| ATL |
19.5 |
DET |
22.1 |
ATL |
21.9 |
| NE |
19.0 |
BUF |
20.8 |
CAR |
21.2 |
| SF |
18.7 |
KC |
20.7 |
DAL |
21.2 |
| PIT |
18.0 |
WAS |
20.2 |
NE |
21.0 |
| CAR |
17.4 |
IND |
19.9 |
HOU |
20.7 |
|
| QB |
RB |
WR |
| HOU |
17.3 |
BAL |
19.2 |
PIT |
20.0 |
| NYG |
17.3 |
NE |
19.2 |
KC |
20.0 |
| CHI |
16.7 |
OAK |
18.7 |
NO |
19.9 |
| SEA |
16.7 |
SF |
17.8 |
CLE |
19.1 |
| OAK |
16.5 |
NYJ |
17.7 |
BAL |
18.7 |
| PHI |
16.4 |
CIN |
17.6 |
JAX |
18.7 |
| IND |
16.3 |
MIN |
17.3 |
OAK |
18.7 |
| JAX |
16.2 |
CLE |
17.1 |
PHI |
18.3 |
Actual statistics from weeks 7 through 16 of
the 2002 season.
|
| QB |
RB |
WR |
| TEN |
16.1 |
HOU |
16.9 |
SEA |
18.1 |
| DAL |
16.1 |
JAX |
16.9 |
TEN |
18.1 |
| WAS |
15.8 |
ATL |
16.8 |
CHI |
17.5 |
| NYJ |
15.7 |
MIA |
16.6 |
GB |
17.5 |
| CLE |
15.6 |
CAR |
16.2 |
IND |
17.5 |
| GB |
14.8 |
DAL |
16.1 |
NYJ |
16.0 |
| BAL |
14.4 |
PHI |
15.2 |
STL |
15.5 |
| STL |
14.2 |
TB |
14.4 |
DEN |
15.5 |
| BUF |
13.5 |
NYG |
14.3 |
BUF |
15.1 |
| MIA |
13.4 |
PIT |
12.8 |
MIA |
15.0 |
| DEN |
13.2 |
GB |
12.1 |
WAS |
14.1 |
| TB |
12.7 |
TEN |
12.0 |
TB |
12.9 |
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This season is even more refined since it compares how
defenses were against positions, not merely passing or
rushing. For instance, runningbacks gain both rushing and
receiving yards and scores and you are starting the position,
not the method of offense. Therefore defenses were ranked
on how many fantasy points they gave up to runningbacks
for yards and scores no matter if rushing or receiving.
Similarly, passing yards indicate quarterback effectiveness,
but do not correspond 1:1 to wide receiver receiving yards
since backs and tight ends also catch those passes and
some defenses are better against wideouts than others.
For this reason, defenses were ranked on how many points
they gave up to wide receivers only which led to subtle
differences between quarterback and wide receiver good
and bad matchups.
When reviewing the good and bad matchups for ease of schedule,
remember too that it is just as important to have a lack
of bad matchups as it is to have a lot of good matchups.
Individual player talent matters the most.
As with any sort of analysis, realize that this is one
tool and only a part of the entire puzzle. We will update
this during midseason.
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