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The list of scrambling NFL quarterbacks is long - Tarkenton,
Cunningham and Young to mention but a few. The NFL has
always had at least some quarterbacks that would not only
tuck it and run, but do so rather successfully to the dismay
of tired linebackers. But has the increase in running quarterbacks
in the college ranks really fed into changing the NFL,
or have they either been converted into receivers or learned
to throw it away when the line breaks? Peyton Manning has
been very successful in the NFL and he rarely runs. Kurt
Warner - the fantasy darling one not the one last season
- almost never ran either. Is it better to have a true
pocket passer or can Kordell Stewart ever tease us again?
First off, let's take a look at the past four seasons
for the top 18 quarterbacks each season in points per game
using the most popular scoring system for quarterbacks
- 1 point per 25 yards passed/10 yards rushed and three
points per passing touchdown and six points for a rushing
touchdown. There are many variations on quarterback scoring,
but increasing passing scores and introducing negative
points for interceptions merely moves the scoring curve
up or down. It does very little to changing the rankings
of the players relative to one another. The past four seasons
stats for the best 18 fantasy quarterbacks:
| 1999 |
Gm |
PPG |
PYd |
PTD |
R# |
RYd |
RTD |
| 1 |
Warner |
16 |
21.8 |
4359 |
41 |
22 |
94 |
1 |
| 2 |
Beuerlein |
16 |
21.4 |
4436 |
36 |
27 |
124 |
2 |
| 3 |
McNair |
11 |
19.9 |
2179 |
12 |
72 |
337 |
8 |
| 4 |
Manning |
16 |
18.6 |
4141 |
26 |
35 |
73 |
2 |
| 5 |
Gannon |
16 |
18.5 |
3840 |
24 |
46 |
298 |
2 |
| 6 |
Johnson |
16 |
17.4 |
4005 |
24 |
27 |
30 |
2 |
| 7 |
Favre |
16 |
17.2 |
4101 |
22 |
28 |
142 |
0 |
| 8 |
George |
12 |
17.1 |
2816 |
23 |
17 |
40 |
0 |
| 9 |
Flutie |
15 |
17.1 |
3171 |
19 |
86 |
473 |
1 |
| 10 |
Bledsoe |
16 |
15.9 |
3981 |
19 |
41 |
101 |
0 |
| 11 |
Blake |
14 |
15.6 |
2670 |
16 |
61 |
334 |
2 |
| 12 |
Lucas |
9 |
15.6 |
1678 |
14 |
40 |
149 |
1 |
| 13 |
Kitna |
15 |
15.4 |
3346 |
23 |
35 |
57 |
0 |
| 14 |
Collins |
10 |
15.3 |
2316 |
8 |
19 |
36 |
2 |
| 15 |
Griese |
14 |
15.0 |
3032 |
14 |
46 |
138 |
2 |
| 16 |
Frerotte |
9 |
14.7 |
2117 |
9 |
15 |
33 |
0 |
| 17 |
Tolliver |
10 |
14.6 |
1916 |
7 |
26 |
142 |
3 |
| 18 |
Brunell |
15 |
14.3 |
3060 |
14 |
47 |
208 |
1 |
|
| 2000 |
Gm |
PPG |
PYd |
PTD |
R# |
RYd |
RTD |
| 1 |
Culpepper |
16 |
20.9 |
3937 |
33 |
90 |
470 |
7 |
| 2 |
Garcia |
16 |
19.9 |
4278 |
31 |
71 |
415 |
4 |
| 3 |
Warner |
11 |
17.9 |
3429 |
21 |
18 |
17 |
0 |
| 4 |
Manning |
16 |
17.9 |
4413 |
33 |
37 |
116 |
1 |
| 5 |
Gannon |
16 |
17.8 |
3430 |
28 |
89 |
529 |
4 |
| 6 |
McNabb |
16 |
17.8 |
3365 |
21 |
87 |
629 |
6 |
| 7 |
Griese |
10 |
17.5 |
2688 |
19 |
28 |
104 |
1 |
| 8 |
Green |
8 |
17.4 |
2063 |
16 |
20 |
69 |
1 |
| 9 |
Grbac |
15 |
17.2 |
4164 |
28 |
30 |
111 |
1 |
| 10 |
Brunell |
16 |
14.4 |
3640 |
20 |
48 |
236 |
2 |
| 11 |
Brooks |
8 |
13.9 |
1514 |
9 |
41 |
170 |
2 |
| 12 |
Favre |
16 |
13.6 |
3812 |
20 |
26 |
113 |
0 |
| 13 |
King |
16 |
13.5 |
2769 |
18 |
73 |
353 |
5 |
| 14 |
Beuerlein |
16 |
13.3 |
3730 |
19 |
44 |
106 |
1 |
| 15 |
Collins |
16 |
13.3 |
3608 |
22 |
40 |
71 |
1 |
| 16 |
McNown |
10 |
13.1 |
1646 |
8 |
49 |
326 |
3 |
| 17 |
Testaverde |
16 |
13.1 |
3721 |
21 |
25 |
32 |
0 |
| 18 |
Blake |
11 |
12.9 |
2017 |
13 |
56 |
247 |
1 |
|
| 2001 |
Gm |
PPG |
PYd |
PTD |
R# |
RYd |
RTD |
| 1 |
Culpepper |
11 |
19.6 |
2612 |
14 |
72 |
409 |
5 |
| 2 |
Warner |
16 |
18.6 |
4830 |
36 |
28 |
60 |
0 |
| 3 |
Garcia |
16 |
17.7 |
3538 |
32 |
72 |
263 |
5 |
| 4 |
McNair |
15 |
17.3 |
3350 |
21 |
76 |
414 |
5 |
| 5 |
Manning |
16 |
17.0 |
4131 |
26 |
35 |
157 |
4 |
| 6 |
McNabb |
15 |
16.7 |
3233 |
25 |
79 |
487 |
2 |
| 7 |
Brooks |
16 |
16.2 |
3832 |
26 |
80 |
362 |
1 |
| 8 |
Favre |
16 |
16.1 |
3923 |
32 |
38 |
56 |
1 |
| 9 |
Gannon |
16 |
15.9 |
3828 |
27 |
62 |
231 |
2 |
| 10 |
Stewart |
16 |
14.9 |
3109 |
14 |
96 |
536 |
5 |
| 11 |
Fiedler |
16 |
14.5 |
3292 |
20 |
73 |
321 |
4 |
| 12 |
Brunell |
15 |
13.9 |
3309 |
19 |
39 |
224 |
1 |
| 13 |
Green |
16 |
13.2 |
3783 |
17 |
35 |
158 |
0 |
| 14 |
Griese |
15 |
13.1 |
2827 |
23 |
49 |
183 |
1 |
| 15 |
Batch |
10 |
13.0 |
2392 |
12 |
12 |
45 |
0 |
| 16 |
Collins |
16 |
12.8 |
3770 |
19 |
37 |
73 |
0 |
| 17 |
Plummer |
16 |
12.8 |
3653 |
18 |
35 |
164 |
0 |
| 18 |
Weinke |
15 |
12.5 |
2931 |
11 |
37 |
128 |
6 |
|
| 2002 |
Gm |
PPG |
PYd |
PTD |
R# |
RYd |
RTD |
| 1 |
McNabb |
10 |
22.2 |
2289 |
17 |
62 |
464 |
6 |
| 2 |
Culpepper |
16 |
19.6 |
3859 |
18 |
105 |
603 |
10 |
| 3 |
Vick |
15 |
18.9 |
2936 |
16 |
112 |
796 |
8 |
| 4 |
Gannon |
16 |
18.2 |
4689 |
26 |
50 |
156 |
3 |
| 5 |
Manning |
16 |
16.8 |
4199 |
27 |
38 |
148 |
2 |
| 6 |
Bledsoe |
16 |
16.1 |
4359 |
24 |
27 |
67 |
2 |
| 7 |
Brooks |
16 |
15.9 |
3574 |
27 |
61 |
256 |
2 |
| 8 |
McNair |
16 |
15.6 |
3387 |
22 |
82 |
440 |
3 |
| 9 |
Brady |
16 |
15.3 |
3764 |
28 |
42 |
110 |
1 |
| 10 |
Garcia |
16 |
15.3 |
3344 |
21 |
72 |
358 |
3 |
| 11 |
Kitna |
13 |
15.0 |
3178 |
16 |
25 |
52 |
4 |
| 12 |
Green |
16 |
14.9 |
3690 |
26 |
31 |
225 |
1 |
| 13 |
Johnson |
13 |
14.5 |
3049 |
22 |
13 |
30 |
0 |
| 14 |
Hasselbeck |
13 |
14.2 |
3075 |
15 |
40 |
202 |
1 |
| 15 |
Favre |
16 |
13.9 |
3658 |
27 |
25 |
73 |
0 |
| 16 |
Griese |
13 |
13.7 |
3214 |
15 |
38 |
107 |
1 |
| 17 |
Collins |
16 |
13.6 |
4076 |
19 |
43 |
-3 |
0 |
| 18 |
Maddox |
13 |
13.5 |
2836 |
20 |
18 |
49 |
0 |
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1999 was a pretty good year for quarterback scoring overall,
but last season was a little better than the three prior
years. Right now it mostly looks like a bunch of stats
with Warner and Culpepper the best bets these past four
seasons. Let's start to deconstruct these stats further
and see what they say. We'll look closer at the top 12
quarterbacks as that is the most common league size and
break them down into groups of four.
| Top QBs in tiers of four |
| Top 4 |
PPG |
% Run |
R# |
RY |
YPC |
RTD |
| 1999 |
20.4 |
15% |
39 |
157 |
4.0 |
3.3 |
| 2000 |
19.2 |
13% |
54 |
255 |
4.7 |
3.0 |
| 2001 |
18.3 |
19% |
62 |
287 |
4.6 |
3.8 |
| 2002 |
19.7 |
32% |
82 |
505 |
6.1 |
6.8 |
| Next 4 |
PPG |
% Run |
R# |
RY |
YPC |
RTD |
| 1999 |
17.6 |
7% |
30 |
128 |
4.3 |
1.0 |
| 2000 |
17.6 |
19% |
56 |
333 |
5.9 |
3.0 |
| 2001 |
16.5 |
14% |
58 |
266 |
4.6 |
2.0 |
| 2002 |
16.1 |
14% |
52 |
228 |
4.4 |
2.2 |
| Last 4 |
PPG |
% Run |
R# |
RY |
YPC |
RTD |
| 1999 |
16.0 |
16% |
57 |
264 |
4.3 |
1.0 |
| 2000 |
14.8 |
13% |
36 |
158 |
4.3 |
1.3 |
| 2001 |
14.8 |
21% |
68 |
328 |
4.9 |
3.0 |
| 2002 |
15.1 |
13% |
43 |
186 |
4.2 |
2.3 |
| Overall |
PPG |
% Run |
R# |
RY |
YPC |
RTD |
| 1999 |
18.0 |
13% |
42 |
183 |
4.2 |
1.8 |
| 2000 |
17.2 |
15% |
49 |
248 |
4.9 |
2.4 |
| 2001 |
16.5 |
18% |
63 |
293 |
4.7 |
2.9 |
| 2002 |
17.0 |
20% |
59 |
306 |
4.9 |
3.8 |
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What we see in the second and third tier of four players
is not significant nor really consistent. The "Next
4" and the "Final 4" carry similar numbers
from season to season and these round out the twelve best
quarterbacks in fantasy leagues the past four years.
Where the difference comes is at the top four quarterbacks.
And this is critical since they represent the difference
makers, the ones that score those extra points over the
average players that can spell victory for a fantasy team.
While points per game has not changed much, the manner
in how they were obtained is on a definite trend upwards
for rushing. The number of carries, yards and yards per
carry have all been increasing for quarterback rushing.
Since we are dealing with the best four quarterbacks out
of thirty two starters, we are talking more about individual
players than we are position wide effects. Let's look at
those individuals again, only with a bit different detail.
I've
highlighted specific quarterbacks in either red (rarely
rush) or green (big rushers) to illustrate my conclusion.
In the past four years, Peyton Manning has been an obvious
stud as was Kurt Warner (at least until last season).
They are prototypical pocket passers who are more likely
to
throw the ball away than to take off running. They are
joined by Brett Favre who no longer reaches the top four,
but who always turns in at least decent seasons. Last
year Favre was 15th in points per game as an aberration,
but
that was nothing compared to where Warner swan dived.
| Top 12 Quarterbacks 1999-2002, Percentage
of Points Per Game attributed to Run |
| 1999 |
PPG |
% Run |
| Warner |
21.8 |
5% |
| Beuerlein |
21.4 |
8% |
| McNair |
19.9 |
40% |
| Manning |
18.6 |
7% |
| subtotal |
20.4 |
15% |
| Gannon |
18.5 |
16% |
| Johnson |
17.4 |
6% |
| Favre |
17.2 |
6% |
| George |
17.1 |
2% |
| subtotal |
17.6 |
7% |
| Flutie |
17.1 |
22% |
| Bledsoe |
15.9 |
4% |
| Blake |
15.6 |
23% |
| Lucas |
15.6 |
16% |
|
| 2000 |
PPG |
% Run |
| Culpepper |
20.9 |
26% |
| Garcia |
19.9 |
20% |
| Warner |
17.9 |
1% |
| Manning |
17.9 |
6% |
| subtotal |
19.2 |
13% |
| Gannon |
17.8 |
26% |
| McNabb |
17.8 |
33% |
| Griese |
17.5 |
9% |
| Green |
17.4 |
9% |
| subtotal |
17.6 |
19% |
| Grbac |
17.2 |
6% |
| Brunell |
14.4 |
15% |
| Brooks |
13.9 |
25% |
| Favre |
13.6 |
5% |
|
| 2001 |
PPG |
% Run |
| Culpepper |
19.6 |
33% |
| Warner |
18.6 |
2% |
| Garcia |
17.7 |
19% |
| McNair |
17.3 |
27% |
| subtotal |
18.3 |
19% |
| Manning |
17 |
14% |
| McNabb |
16.7 |
23% |
| Brooks |
16.2 |
15% |
| Favre |
16.1 |
4% |
| subtotal |
16.5 |
14% |
| Gannon |
15.9 |
13% |
| Stewart |
14.9 |
33% |
| Fiedler |
14.5 |
23% |
| Brunell |
13.9 |
13% |
|
| 2002 |
PPG |
% Run |
| McNabb |
22.2 |
37% |
| Culpepper |
19.6 |
37% |
| Vick |
18.9 |
44% |
| Gannon |
18.2 |
11% |
| subtotal |
19.7 |
32% |
| Manning |
16.8 |
10% |
| Bledsoe |
16.1 |
7% |
| Brooks |
15.9 |
14% |
| McNair |
15.6 |
24% |
| subtotal |
16.1 |
14% |
| Brady |
15.3 |
7% |
| Garcia |
15.3 |
21% |
| Kitna |
15 |
14% |
| Green |
14.9 |
11% |
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The point is that these three passers show up each season
and only Warner has missed any games in the past four years
(five in 2000 and some would say all of them last year).
Only Warner has managed to be better than third highest
in points per game and the jury is still out on his recovery
from the thumb injury.
The "green" rushers of Steve McNair, Rich Gannon,
Donovan McNabb, Daunte Culpepper, Jeff Garcia, and Aaron
Brooks have increased their share of the top four each
season until last year they owned the best four along with
new comer Michael Vick. Rich Gannon may be slowing down
- his percentage of run points to overall fantasy points
supports that. Michael Vick appears ready to take the torch.
What is more interesting is that those players who made
it big one season without using the run are not returning
to the same level the next year. Nor even any of the past
four years outside their one big year. The "runners" are
not taking over the entire league, only the top fantasy
spots. The handful of spots that spell the difference between
your fantasy playoffs and mediocrity.
Another factor to consider is that pocket passing quarterbacks
that reach the top four or even top eight are more likely
to have stretches of good games. They will have - like
Brady and Bledsoe - big first halves of the season or like
Kitna or Green bigger second halves. But they are less
likely to offer a full season of consistently high output.
Running quarterbacks offer a more consistent output game
to game, netting you points either by the pass or the run
or both.
The NFL goes through phases where certain components of
the game are more commonly used and eventually figured
out by the defense. This, however, is less likely to affect
the runners we've mentions. Quarterbacks who do not run
are relying on their linemen to block and their receivers
to get open and catch the ball. Key injuries on the line
or to the receivers can wipe out the rhythm and chemistry
that worked well. A great passer can be neutralized with
just one or two great players in a secondary. Less so to
a running quarterback who can beat an opponent more than
one way. Even if the line is not always great and the receivers
would struggle to start on any other team and even the
runningbacks are not that good, the running quarterback
can still gain fantasy points.
Just ask Donovan McNabb.
Bootleg on two... you ready?
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