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This
is a weekly view of the upcoming games considering the
perspective of the sportsbooks to see how their information
about teams and trends can be relevant to your fantasy
football team. There are probably a few of you who feel
that the gaming industry should give to you for a change.
This view is interesting and different from fantasy football
since it considers the teams and games as a whole first
considering trends and motivations and only later the
players – almost
the exact opposite from when you decide your weekly starting
players.
If you would like a detailed introduction to this
new weekly feature at The Huddle please
click here.
New York Jets (0-0) at Washington (0-0)
Vegas Line
Total Points = 41
Predicted Outcome
Total Points = 38.8
NYJ 20.3, WAS 18.5
Trends
1999 WAS 27 (A) NY 20 (H)
WAS Stats: 333 Total Yards- 96 Rush-237 Pass
NY Stats: 337 Total Yards-142 Rush-195 Pass
The Jets tend to play more defensive games (under)
on national television and the Redskins also play slightly
more defensive. The national games traditionally under-perform
the established lines.
Motivation
Oh , I don’t know…there may be some hard
feeling left over from having Redskins Owner Dan Snyder
sign the Jets top receiving threat, guard, kicker and
kick returner. Jets General Manager Terry Bradway has
been openly critical of Snyder’s signings and valuation
of talent. Redskins wide receiver Laveranues Coles took
a parting shot at Jets team management as well as New
York’s defensive backs on the way out. Jets QB
Chad Pennington simply said that he felt the team’s
receiving corps was as strong or stronger without him
(Coles). Feel the love.
Opening night on national television qualifies as a
big game no matter who the opponent is. Both sides should
be motivated.
Opinion
Vegas isn’t excited about this game. If there
is a favorite it’s based on the Jets ability to
run the ball against a very suspect Redskins defensive
front.
The Jets, with Pennington out injured, will probably
want to test a very vulnerable Redskins run defense.
Both Redskins starting defensive tackles are questionable.
Last year’s starters Daryl Gardener (replaced by
Brandon Noble who will miss the year) and Dan Wilkinson
are no longer with the squad. This squad features a rotation
of Martin Chase (New Orleans), Lional Dalton (Denver),
Jermaine Haley, Bernard Holsey, and Del Cowsette- hardly
household names. Starting DE Bruce Smith means putting
three liabilities against the rush on the field at the
same time.
Running the ball against the Redskins should be a no-brainer…that
is if the Jets didn’t have their own problems.
G Tom Nutten abruptly retired after being signed from
the Rams. Brett Smith, a left tackle had to make a late
switch to right guard. The unit lacked chemistry in preseason
and they’re thin at the tackle position, but the
lack of cohesiveness is more of a concern on opening
night. Expect the Jets to pound the ball at the center
of the Redskins line then throw play action deep if the
Redskins are forced to bring up their safeties.
The handicappers still aren’t sold on Redskins
QB Patrick Ramsey. Many think that with time he can become
an average NFL quarterback, but that the pressure of
opening the season may get to him this week. Ramsey looked
rough through the early part of training camp. Handicappers
question his footwork and lack of quick decision making.
Ready or not, Ramsey will have to carry the load as the
Redskins are expected to go after the Jets questionable
secondary.
Added on September 5, 2003
Oakland (0-0) at Tennessee (0-0)
Vegas Line
Total = 46 (65.60 percentile-Exceptionally High)
Predicted Outcome
Total = 48.70
Oakland = 24.74
Tennessee = 23.96
Trends
1/19/2003: TEN 24 (A) OAK
41 (H)
TEN Stats: 312 Total-138 Rush-174 Pass
OAK Stats: 375 Total-89
Rush-286 Pass
9/29/2002: TEN 25 (A) OAK 52
(H)
TEN Stats: 430 Total-43 Rush-387 Pass
OAK Stats: 464 Total-90
Rush-374 Pass
Motivation
These two teams are very familiar with one another after
meeting twice last season. The Titans will be motivated
to avenge their two big loses last season (including
a playoff loss). Allowing 93 in two meetings is not
a good thing.
Having gotten their butts-kicked last year, the Titans
will be very motivated not to lose three straight games
against the AFC champions with 12 months. On their home
field, they may be too hyped up.
Opinion
Tennessee has a weakness in the secondary. It isn't
the starters, it's they guys they bring in to cover the
third and fourth receiver. If Raiders QB Rich Gannon
gets time to sit in the pocket and pick the Tennessee
secondary apart, another 45 point game is probable. Titans
DE Jevon Kearse must play over his foot injury and get
pressure on Gannon or DE Kevin Carter will get double
teamed all evening. Tennessee running back Eddie George
has had big games against the Raiders in the past and
needs a solid game to keep the potent Oakland offense
off the field. The Titans have to score touchdowns when
they get their chances. Field goals will kill them in
this high-scoring game.
Baltimore (0-0) at Pittsburgh (0-0)
Vegas Line
Total = 40 (50.36 percentile-Average)
Predicted Outcome
Total = 40.98
Pittsburgh = 23.28
Baltimore = 17.70
Trends
12/29/2002: BAL 31 (A) PIT 34
(H)
BAL Stats: Total-422-Rush-114-Pass-308
PIT Stats: Total-351-Rush-175-Pass-176
10/27/2002: BAL
18 (H) PIT 31 (A)
BAL Stats: Total-360-Rush-67-Pass-293
PIT Stats: Total-283-Rush-110-Pass-173
1/20/2002: BAL
10 (A) PIT 27 (H)
BAL Stats: Total-150-Rush-22-158
PIT Stats: Total-297-Rush-154-Pass-143
Motivation
A divisional game that both teams want to win desperately. The
Ravens have lost three straight to the Steelers and their
defense has played poorly in all three. The Steelers
are one of the few teams that can consistently run on
the Ravens defense. Baltimore have struggled to run
against the iron curtain defense.
Opinion
The key to the game will be how well the Ravens' rookie
quarterback handles the Steelers blitz. Baltimore will
depend on Kyle Boller, starting his first game and on
the road in a tough place to play, recognizing the blitz
and capitalizing on it to make big plays down the field. Pittsburgh's
secondary is questionable against the pass and opportunities
for long scores should present themselves. The Steelers,
on the other hand, have to get pressure on the Baltimore
rookie.
On the other side of the ball, the Steelers need much
better play from their offensive line. The right side,
in particular, has struggled all preseason. T Todd Fordham
will be making his first start with the team and G Kendall
Simmons is suffering through adult diabetes. If QB Tommy
Maddox gets time, then the battle moves down the field
where WRs Burress and Ward will lock up with Baltimore
corners Chris McAllister and Corey Fuller.
Minnesota (0-0) at Green Bay (0-0)
Vegas Line
Total = 47 (68.49 percentile-Exceptionally High)
Predicted Outcome
Total = 49.98
Green Bay = 29.56
Minnesota = 20.42
Trends
12/8/2002: MIN 22 (A) GB 26
(H)
MIN Stats: Total-316-Rush-191-Pass-125
GB Stats: Total-328-Rush-124-Pass-204
11/17/2002: GB
21 (A) MIN 31 (H)
MIN Stats: Total-425-Rush-218-Pass-207
GB Stats: Total-367-Rush-71-Pass-296
12/30/2001: MIN
13 (A) GB 24 (H)
MIN Stats: Total-302-Rush-199-Pass-103
GB Stats: Total-213-Rush-56-Pass-157
10/21/2001: GB
13 (A) MIN 35 (H)
MIN Stats: Total-377Rush-196- Pass-181
GB Stats: Total-234-Rush-74-Pass-160
Green Bay has won nine
of the last 10 games on their home field.
Motivation
Both teams will be motivated by playing a big, divisional
game to start the season. Packer QB Brett Favre, for
some reason, struggles against the Viking defense in
the Metrodome, but he lights up the visitors on home
turf. He has had a running war of words with a succession
of Minnesota defensive tackles including current defensive
leader Chris Hovan. The underdog Vikings have won the
last two games against the Packers in the dome and lost
the last two in Wisconsin.
Opinion
The consensus among the professional handicappers is
that the Packers are one of the league's most overrated
teams while the Vikings have been overlooked since losing
their starting running back. One of them has come out
and said that Minnesota will win the very weak NFC North
division. The Vikings have been their own worst enemy
taking sacks, bad penalties, and making too many turnovers. If
they can make less mistakes they will have a very potent
offense.
On the other hand, if Favre gets time to throw he should
have a big game against the questionable Minnesota secondary. Look
for WR Donald Driver to have a big game on Sunday. Vikings
WR Randy Moss has traditionally had big games against
the Packers as well. In 10 games against the Packers,
Moss has caught 49 passes for 976 yards and nine touchdowns.
Houston (0-0) at Miami (0-0)
Vegas Line
Total = 34 (34.56 percentile-Low)
Predicted Outcome
Total = 31.63
Miami = 22.76
Houston = 8.87
Trends
No regular season history. Miami has 11
consecutive wins to open the season.
Motivation
The Dolphins have crushed the opposition early in the
season. The Texans need to show they made progress and
are no longer an expansion team.
Opinion
The speculation centers around if the Texans can score
against the Dolphin's defense and exactly how badly will
Miami pound Houston QB David Carr. One handicapper's
guess is that without the aid of a defensive touchdown/huge
special teams play/turnover deep in Dolphin territory
the Texans offense would be worth a field goal and would
struggle to get into the end zone. On the other had,
the Dolphins will score around 24 points if the game
isn't played in a hurricane. Dolphins DE Jason Taylor
almost certainly will end the week leading the league
in sacks. The Texans will run the ball and eat up clock
in hopes of keeping the game close and getting a break. When
the Dolphins throw, it will be down the middle against
the Texans weak safeties.
Denver (0-0) at Cincinnati (0-0)
Vegas Line
Total = 43 ½ (59.94 percentile-Average)
Predicted Outcome
Total = 44.24
Denver = 26.10
Cincinnati = 18.14
Trends
No recent history between these teams.
Motivation
The Bengals will want this game. A new head coach brings
hope to a city and team that has struggled for a decade. Losing
the opener would deflate what little optimism there is.
Opinion
Cincinnati need to limit its turnovers, run the ball,
and play keep away from the Broncos. The Bengals defense
is very questionable and won't hold up if Denver keeps
getting the ball and a short field. Cincinnati should
crowd the line of scrimmage to take away the Bronco running
game and for QB Jake Plummer to make quick decisions.
St. Louis (0-0) at New York Giants (0-0)
Vegas Line
Total = 45 ½ (64.9 percentile-Exceptionally
High)
Predicted Outcome
Total =45.55
New York Giants = 23.55
St. Louis = 22.00
Trends
9/15/2002: NYG 26 (A) STL
21 (H)
NYG Stats: Total- 394-Pass-291-Rush-103
STL Stats: Total-352-Pass-260-Rush-82
10/14/2001: NYG
14 (A) STL 15 (H)
NYG Stats: Total-332-Pass-235-Rush-97
STL Stats: Total-315-Pass-274-Rush-41
11/12/2000: NYG
24 (H) STL 38 (A)
NYG Stats: Total-348-Pass-213-Rush-135
STL Stats: Total-397-Pass-256-Rush-141
Motivation
Last year's loss to the Giants set the stage for a disappointing
2002 campaign. The Rams will be eager to prove their
back to their "greatest show on turf" form.
The Rams have won seven of the last nine meetings and
lead the series 25-10.
Opinion
The Giants are going to go right after Rams QB Kurt
Warner. They'll stunt, blitz and overload one side of
the formation to rattle the St. Louis quarterback. If
the Rams can protect their quarterback, they'll have
a change to make big plays. WR Bruce and Holt have to
beat New York DB Will Allen and Will Peterson (who will
play a physical game) on the line of scrimmage and force
the St Louis receivers off their routes.
The Rams also need to get heat on the quarterback. With
the Giants starting two new offensive linemen, the St.
Louis defensive ends need to produce. If not Toomer
and Hillard make take advantage of the Rams weak secondary.
Vegas questions whether the sharp preseason play of
QB Kurt Warner will continue. He still looks nervous
in the pocket.
New England (0-0) at Buffalo (0-0)
Vegas Line
Total = 46 ½ (67.05 percentile-Exceptionally
High)
Predicted Outcome
Total = 41.88
New England = 21.50
Buffalo = 20.38
Trends
12/8/2002: BUF 17 (A) NE 27
(H)
BUF Stats: Total-390-Rush-78-Pass-312
NE Stats: Total-275-Rush-92-Pass-183
11/3/2002: NE
38 (A) BUF 7 (H)
BUF Stats: Total-331-Rush-65- Pass-266
NE Stats: Total-422-Rush-114-Pass-308
12/16/2001: NE
12 (A) BUF 9 (H)
BUF Stats: Total-310-Rush-98 -Pass-212
NE Stats: Total-335-Rush-
129-Pass-206
11/11/2001: BUF 11 (A) NE 21 (H)
BUF Stats: Total-241-Rush-68-Pass-173
NE Stats: Total-205-Rush-134-Pass-71
New England has won 16 of the last 17 games they've
led at half time.
Motivation
A big, opening game between divisional opponents. The
timing is odd in that these two teams usually play their
games in bad weather late in the season. The Patriots
have dominated this game the last few seasons, something
that will stoke the fires of Bills and former Patriots
QB Drew Bledsoe and S Lawyer Milloy.
Opinion
Vegas is nervous about this game because it's being
played in early September and all the data is from games
played in November and December. Having Milloy change
teams the week of the opener also adds to the uncertainty.
Bufffalo has gotten blown out of these games early. They
trailed last year's meetings 17-0 and 21-0 and had to
give up their running game early and push the ball down
the field. Bledsoe threw the ball 72 times against Buffalo
last season. The Bills offensive front will have to
quickly recognize the number of looks they'll get early
and not miss assignments.
New England may not be able to run the ball against
the improved Buffalo defense. Look for them to spread
the formation and throw underneath.
San Diego (0-0) vs. Kansas City (0-0)
Vegas Line
Total 46 ½ (67.05 percentile-Exceptionally
High)
Predicted Outcome
Total = 45.83
Kansas City = 26.34
San Diego = 19.49
Trends
12/22/2002: SD 22 (A) KC 24
(H)
SD Stats: Total-383-Rush-148-Pass-235
KC Stats: Total-376-Rush-53-Pass-323
10/13/2002: KC
34 (A) SD 35 (H)
SD Stats: Total-465-Rush-153-Pass-312
KC Stats: Total-319-Rush-88-Pass-321
12/23/2001: SD
17 (A) KC 20 (H)
SD Stats: Total-329-Rush-165-Pass-164
KC Stats: Total-323-Rush-120-Pass-203
11/14/2001: KC
25 (A) SD 20 (H)
SD Stats: Total-324-Rush-65-Pass-259
KC Stats: Total-378-Rush-208-Pass-170
The Chiefs have won six straight at home in this series.
Motivation
A big divisional game to start the season so both teams
should be motivated.
Opinion
With both teams talking about how they spent the off-season
working on their defensive problems has Vegas concerned
that this will not be as high scoring as the numbers
would indicate.
The Chargers will want to protect their weak defense,
and the secondary in particular. To keep them off the
field, they'll pound away with the running game. When
they do pass, they'll go right to WR David Boston who
should over match the pathetic Chiefs secondary.
Kansas City will do the opposite. Hoping to cut down
on the wear and tear RB Priest Holmes receives, they'll
throw the ball early and often and hope to take advantage
of the Chargers weakness. The Chargers were 32nd against
the pass last year and may not be better this season.
Chicago (0-0) at San Francisco (0-0)
Vegas Line
Total = 40 (50.36 percentile-Average)
Predicted Outcome
Total = 40.88
Chicago =17.21
San Francisco = 23.67
Trends
10/28/2001: SF 31 (A) CHI 37
(H)
SF Stats: Total-350-Rush-83-Pass-267
CHI Stats: Total-364-Rush-135-Pass-229
Motivation
Opening day for the 49ers.
Opinion
Vegas just can't figure out what the Bears were thinking
when they signed QB Kordell Stewart to be their opening
day starter. As one put it, "It's as if they never watched
a %$&* football game the last five years." Chicago's
offensive line is already in taters and none of the handicappers
expect that the Bears will be able to run the ball. One
has already come out and said that this team will finish
last in their division. If they can throw, the Bears
will go after 49ers CB Mike Rumph. Rumph gets the start
because Jason Webster his hobbled with a knee injury. WR
Terrell Owens typically gets off to a slow start each
season.
Indianapolis (0-0) at Cleveland (0-0)
Vegas Line
Total = 46 (65.60 percentile-Exceptionally High)
Predicted Outcome
Total = 48.9
Cleveland = 26.16
Indianapolis = 22.74
Trends
12/15/2002: IND 28 (A) CLE 23
(H)
IND Stats: Total-417-Rush-143-Pass-274
CLE Stats: Total-349-Rush-87-Pass-262
The Browns have not won an opening game since rejoining
the league.
Motivation
Browns home opener. They have thirty players will less
than three years in the league and may be a little too
tight in the beginning.
Opinion
The Browns defense will be dreadful this season, but
they may have one of the League's best passing games
so expect a shoot out if LT Barry Stokes can hold of
Colts DE Dwight Freeney. Stokes hasn't started at tackle
for two years.
The Colts will go after CB Anthony Henry who has struggled
all last season and into the preseason. The Browns have
struggled to generate a pass rush so Colts QB Payton
Manning should have time to find him and attack.
Jacksonville (0-0) at Carolina (0-0)
Vegas Line
Total = 35 (36.58 percentile-Below Average)
Predicted Outcome
Total = 36.96
Jacksonville = 18.69
Carolina = 18.27
Trends
No recent regular season history. Current Jaguars Head
Coach Jack Del Rio and front office staff were with the
Panthers last season. The Jaguars have won both previous
games in this series. The Panthers have won five of
their last six games last season
Motivation
Del Rio will have his team pumped to play his former
employers.
Opinion
Vegas just doesn't get the numbers on this game. Take
away the home field advantage and the lines makers are
saying that this is a game between two evenly matched
opponents. Somehow, the handicappers don't get that. They
have the Panthers as one of the better teams in the NFC
and the Jaguars as one of the bottom teams in the AFC.
Vegas loves the Panthers defense in this game, but they
can't figure out how their offense is going to score
points. On one show they couldn't name the Panthers
starting quarterback. They think this will be a very
low scoring game.
Atlanta (0-0) at Dallas (0-0)
Vegas Line
Total = 36 (38.30 percentile-Below Average)
Predicted Outcome
Total = 36.33
Atlanta = 19.11
Dallas = 17.22
Trends
11/11/2001: DAL 13 (A) ATL
20 (H)
DAL Stats: Total-303-Rush-96-Pass-207
ATL Stats: Total-201-Rush-46-Pass-155
Atlanta has lost four in a row in Dallas, but the Cowboys
have lost thee straight openers.
Motivation
Home opener for Dallas with a new Head Coach.
Opinion
Vegas is high on the Cowboys this week. They're looking
for the Cowboys head coach Bill Parcells will make a
statement somehow, some way and win the game easily. Several
have said that the Dallas defense is underrated with
the Falcons defense is overrated.
The Falcons offensive line was terribly inconsistent
in the preseason. Not a dominate group, they struggle
to open holes for RBs Warrick Dunn and T.J. Duckett. If
the Falcons can't run the ball then Dallas will lay siege
on Falcons QB Doug Johnson. If Johnson gets time, he'll
go straight down the field to WR Peerless Price who should
be open against the Cowboys weak corners.
The Falcons will Blitz Cowboys QB Quincy Carter. If
they can take advantage of a limited Dallas offensive
line, they can rattle the signal-caller and force mistakes. The
Falcons linebacker are too good for the Cowboys to run
with a lot of success.
New Orleans (0-0) at Seattle (0-0
Vegas Line
Total = 48 (71.39 percentile-Exceptionally High)
Predicted Outcome
Total = 48.02
Seattle = 25.07
New Orleans = 22.95
Trends
No recent regular season games. The Saints are a very
good road team with a 16-8 record since Jim Haslett became
head coach. The Seahawks are just 7-20 in home openers.
Motivation
Seattle home opener. The Seahawks need to get off to
a fast start as they have struggled early the past few
seasons. The Saints play well early then fade late in
the season.
Opinion
The handicappers are down on Aaron Brooks this week. They
suspect that he's still banged up. Already inconsistent,
they've been critical of his play. He's inconsistent
despite having had one of the league's best rushers in
the huddle over the years.
Good things are expected from the Saints running game
as the Seahawks are still questionable against the rush. Losing
DT Chad Eaton and CB Shawn Springs has set back the Seahawks
plan to improve the defense. CB Marcus Trufant should
struggle in the opener against either WRs Joe Horn or
Donte Stallworth.
Vegas is expecting big things from the Seahawks this
week. Holmgren will be looking to make a statement and
to get away from last year's slow start. The offense
and the passing game in particular should be humming
with the only question being if the Seahawks defense
can stop anyone. QB Matt Hasselbeck is on a roll having
two 400 yard passing games and four 300 yard passing
games at the end of last season. Their only question
is if they can get enough tackle play to keep the pass
rushers out.
Arizona (0-0) at Detroit (0-0)
Vegas Line
Total = 39 (47.75 percentile-Average)
Predicted Outcome
Total =44.36
Detroit = 24.64 points
Arizona = 19.72 points
Trends
12/8/2002: DET 20 (A) ARI
23 (H)
DET Stats: Total-203-Rush-51-Pass-152
ARI Stats: Total-313-Rush-133-Pass-180
11/18/2001: DET 38 (A) ARI
45 (H)
DET Stats: Total-478-Rush-49-Pass-429
ARI Stats: Total-417-Rush-89-Pass-328
The Cardinals have won the last five meetings. However,
they are 1-10 in their past 11 opening games. Detroit
has won its last three opening games.
Motivation
The Lions will want to get off to a fast start at home
with a new coach.
Opinion
Vegas loves the addition of RB Orlandis Gary to the
Lions. Many think he is a better running back and suits
the system better than starter James Stewart. The consensus
among the handicappers is that the Lions will make a
step forward this season while the Cardinals may be the
worst team in football. Look for the Lions to throw
deep and often against the Card's thin secondary.
The Cardinals experience at quarterback and running
back can't be ignored. QB Jeff Blake and RB Emmitt Smith
have seen it all before and won't be rattled by opening
on the road. Blake is coming off a concussion suffered
in the final preseason game. The Cardinals will pound
the ball at the Lions and ease their inexperience receivers
into the game and hope to keep their defense off the
field. Vegas thinks this will be a higher scoring game
than most anticipate.
Tampa Bay (0-0) at Philadelphia (0-0)
Vegas Line
Total = 36 (38.30 percentile-Low)
Predicted Outcome
Total = 33.65
Philadelphia =17.45
Tampa Bay = 16.20
Trends
1/19/2003: TB 27 (A) PHI
10 (H)
TB Stats: Total-308-Rush-49-Pass-259
PHI Stats: Total-312-Rush-80-Pass-232
10/20/2002: TB 10 (A) PHI
20 (H)
TB Stats: Total-207-Rush-81-Pass-126
PHI Stats: Total-269-Rush-159-Pass-110
1/12/2002: TB 9 (A) PHI
31 (H)
TB Stats: Total-258-Rush-63-Pass-195
PHI Stats: Total-334-Rush-148-Pass-186
1/6/2002: PHI
17 (A) TB 13 (H)
TB Stats: Total-236-Rush-71-Pass-165
PHI Stats: Total-296-Rush-111-Pass-185
Motivation
The Eagles will certainly be motivated for this game. After
beating the Bucs three times in the preceding 12 months,
the Eagles got pounded at home in the layoffs. Even if
McNabb wasn't healthy for the game, they lost badly at
home nonetheless.
Psychologically, the Eagles can't lose this game. Losing
back-to-back games against the Super Bowl champions would
be a huge blow to the team. Motivated and maybe too
motivated. The pressure is going to be on Philadelphia
Opinion
The Eagles will come after the Buc's quarterback with
the blitz. Tampa is going to have to prove that they
can run the ball o the road. The Bucs have averaged
less than three yards a carry in the past three meetings. This
may be a very low scoring game.
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