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PREVIEW - WEEK 1 (Sept 4, 7-8)
Welcome back, friends. I hope you enjoy my weekly breakdown,
which is designed to give you a quick but informative overview
of all the games scheduled. We'll undertake a general examination
of the match-ups, add in some statistics to help both you
and me forecast the results, and summarize what we might
expect from a fantasy standpoint. As always it should be
great fun, and I'm determined to give you my best effort
week in, and week out, to enhance your NFL season.
Always the most difficult week to prognosticate, the NFL
season openers are also unique because of the intrigue
associated with everyone being tied in the standings. The
pointspreads assigned to Week 1 games are always more subjective,
even random, that at any other time during the season.
Without going into details, I utilize a system for making
my predictions that gives certain statistics more weight
than others, and I try to allow for intangibles as well.
As for the format, readers of my work from previous seasons
will notice that the changes are subtle. A note to remember
-- players not mentioned in fantasy categories are players
who are neither great plays, nor obvious liabilities. Their
prognosis depends on the size of your league and quality
of your roster.
No reason to delay any further, so let's get it going:
|
NEW YORK JETS at WASHINGTON (Thur.)
|
Key Injuries |
Fantasy Take |
|
Line: Redskins favored by 3
Records: Jets 0-0 (0-0 ATS), Redskins 0-0
(0-0 ATS).
Stats Worth Noting: The Jets were 4-4 ATS
on the road last season, the Redskins 4-4 at home.
The Redskins have won the last two meetings.
Game Summary: Prior to Chad Pennington's
injury, the Jets were a bona fide contender. Now
they're my pick to finish last in the AFC East. The
Redskins will have their troubles defensively, but
at home before a national TV audience, I like them
here.
Prediction: REDSKINS, 23-17
|
Jets:
QB Chad Pennington (out)
Redskins:
WR Taylor Jacobs (out) |
Jets:
Veteran QB Testaverde is capable, but only Jet
no-brain play is RB CMartin.
Redskins:
I recommend shying away from any Skins, except WR
LColes, until after the first week of play. |
| NEW ENGLAND at BUFFALO |
Key Injuries |
Fantasy Take |
|
Line: Bills favored by 2
Records: Patriots 0-0 (0-0 ATS), Bills 0-0
(0-0 ATS).
Stats Worth Noting: The
Patriots have won the last four meetings, holding
the Bills to 17 points
or less each time, including a 38-7 rout at Orchard
Park last season.
Game Summary: Buffalo's offense is formidable,
but the defense is unproven, even with the addition
of Takeo Spikes. The Pats made several changes, and
are expected to be much stronger defensively.
Prediction: PATRIOTS, 20-14
|
Patriots:
none
Bills:
none |
Patriots:
Passing game is good to go, but better wait until
RB situation sorts itself out. K AVinatieri and
def-ense are good plays.
Bills:
The big 3 of QB DBledsoe, WR EMoulds and RB THenry
are a go. Hold off on WR JReed. |
| HOUSTON at MIAMI |
Key Injuries |
Fantasy Take |
|
Line: Dolphins favored by 12 1/2
Records: Texans 0-0 (0-0 ATS), Dolphins
0-0 (0-0 ATS).
Stats Worth Noting: The Dolphins are 7-1
ATS at home in 2002, despite usually being a solid
favorite. This is the first-ever meeting between
the two teams.
Game Summary: Miami's defense shows its
domination from the get-go.
Prediction: DOLPHINS, 27-7
|
Texans:
none
Dolphins:
WR Oronde Gadsden (out). |
Texans:
I'd avoid any and all Houston players this week.
Dolphins:
Fish will try to grind
it out with lots of RB RWilliams. WR CChambers an
OK play. Defense might post a shutout.
|
| BALTIMORE at PITTSBURGH |
Key Injuries |
Fantasy Take |
|
Line: Steelers favored by 6
Records: Ravens 0-0 (0-0 ATS), Steelers
0-0 (0-0 ATS).
Stats Worth Noting: The Ravens were 6-2 ATS
on the road last year, the Steelers 2-5-1 at home.
The Steelers won at home last year, 34-31, with the
Ravens covering the number.
Game Summary: What a way for a rookie QB
to begin his career... at Pittsburgh in a key divisional
game. Pittsburgh is historically nasty at home within
the division, though not last year.
Prediction: STEELERS, 27-24
|
Ravens:
none
Steelers:
none |
Ravens:
Too tough a matchup to put QB KBoller in your lineup.
RB JLewis, TE THeap and defense/ST OK.
Steelers:
Is RB AZereoue ready? We'll find
out. In yardage leagues, play him along with the
passing attack,
and the defense. |
| INDIANAPOLIS at CLEVELAND |
Key Injuries |
Fantasy Take |
|
Line: Browns favored by 1
Records: Colts 0-0 (0-0 ATS), Browns 0-0
(0-0 ATS).
Stats Worth Noting: The Colts won at Cleveland,
28-23, last December and have captured 4 of the last
5 in this series.
Game Summary: A tough opener for the Colts,
but I doubt the Browns have enough defense to slow
Indy down much.
Prediction: COLTS, 31-21
|
Colts:
none
Browns:
none |
Colts:
Go with the Big 3 of PManning, EJames and MHarrison
and also consider TE MPollard. K MVand-erjagt also
solid. Avoid the defense/ST.
Browns:
QB KHolcomb and RB WGreen are sound
plays, but which of the four WRs do we like? QMorgan
and KJohnson
are safer plays. |
| DENVER at CINCINNATI |
Key Injuries |
Fantasy Take |
|
Line: Broncos favored by 6
Records: Broncos 0-0 (0-0 ATS), Bengals
0-0 (0-0 ATS).
Stats Worth Noting: The Bengals were just
1-7 ATS at home last year. The last time these teams
played, in 1999, Bengals RB Corey Dillon set a single-game
rushing mark.
Game Summary: Every week, there's at least
one shocker. Bengals coach Marvin Lewis has his team
ready to play, and Dillon has another good day (though
not like in '99). Denver QB Jake Plummer struggles
amidst the hype.
Prediction: BENGALS, 24-20 (upset special)
|
Broncos:
none
Bengals:
none |
Broncos:
I have a hunch QB JPlummer will try too hard, and
get mixed results. All the prime Broncos weapons
are worthy plays, but I'd stay away from the defense.
Bengals:
RB CDillon will get extra work, and the Bengals
tandem of QB JKitna and WR CJohnson make good sleeper
picks. |
| JACKSONVILLE at CAROLINA |
Key Injuries |
Fantasy Take |
|
Line: Panthers favored by 4
Records: Jaguars 0-0 (0-0 ATS), Panthers
0-0 (0-0 ATS).
Stats Worth Noting: The NFL's two newbies
of 1995 haven't faced each other since '98. Jax has
won both the previous meetings.
Game Summary: Defense and Stephen Davis.
That's coach John Fox's simple success formula for
Carolina and it works in the opener.
Prediction: PANTHERS, 20-13
|
Jaguars:
none
Panthers:
none |
Jaguars:
Who will QB Mark Brunell throw to? With WR JSmith
suspended, RB FTaylor is the lone good play.
Panthers:
RB SDavis is an easy choice, but
the only other Panther worth considering is WR MMuhammad.
And of
course, the defense and special teams. |
| SAN DIEGO at KANSAS CITY |
Key Injuries |
Fantasy Take |
|
Line: Chiefs favored by 5 1/2
Records: Chargers 0-0 (0-0 ATS), Chiefs
0-0 (0-0 ATS).
Stats Worth Noting: The Chiefs have won 9
of the last 11 meetings, including 6 in a row at
home. The last four meetings have been decided by
less than a touchdown.
Game Summary: Some are picking the Chiefs
to win the AFC West (I'm not among them). San Diego's
unproven defense is going to have a hard time here.
For a change, this one isn't as close as usual.
Prediction: CHIEFS, 30-16
|
Chargers:
none
Chiefs:
none |
Chargers:
RB LTomlinson and WR DBoston are no-brainers. I'd
stay away from others, including QB DBrees.
Chiefs:
RB PHolmes looks fine, so go with
him until he doesn't. QB TGreen and TE TGonzalez
are also easy picks. I
advise staying clear of WRs. |
| ST. LOUIS at NEW YORK GIANTS |
Key Injuries |
Fantasy Take |
|
Line: Giants favored by 1
Records: Rams 0-0 (0-0 ATS), Giants 0-0
(0-0 ATS).
Stats Worth Noting: The visiting team has
covered ATS in 4 of the last 5 in this series.
Game Summary: I'm among those who believe
the Rams are ready to roll. Plus, the trend mentioned
above. Plus II - the Rams tend to be fast starters,
the Giants fast finishers (which are required because
of slow starts).
Prediction: RAMS, 23-20
|
Rams:
none
Giants:
K Mike Hollis (out for the year). |
Rams:
Although not an ideal matchup, the main Rams weapons
- Warner, Faulk, Holt, Bruce -- gotta be in there.
K JWilkins, also. But not the D.
Giants:
QB KCollins is unpredictable, but he can go off
without warning. RB TBarber, TE JShockey and WR AToomer
should be in. Skip the rest. |
| MINNESOTA
at GREEN BAY |
Key Injuries |
Fantasy Take |
|
Line: Packers favored by 5 1/2
Records: Vikings 0-0 (0-0 ATS), Packers
0-0 (0-0 ATS).
Stats Worth Noting: The Vikings have covered
five in a row in this series, but lost both at Green
Bay straight-up during that time.
Game Summary: I'm having a hard time understanding
the small line. The Pack's superior defense will
be the difference.
Prediction: PACKERS, 31-17
|
Vikings:
RB Michael Bennett (out)
Packers:
none |
Vikings:
QB DCulpepper and WR RMoss are obvious choices,
but RB MWilliams is an interesting consideration.
WR DBates also a sleeper.
Packers:
I like all of Green Bay's primary
skill players -- Favre, Green, Driver, Fergu-son,
Franks,Longwell. |
| ARIZONA at DETROIT |
Key Injuries |
Fantasy Take |
|
Line: Lions favored by 4
Records: Cardinals 0-0 (0-0 ATS), Lions
0-0 (0-0 ATS).
Stats Worth Noting: Arizona has won 4 of
the last 5 meetings, including 2 of the last 3 at
Detroit.
Game Summary: Many consider the Cardinals
the worst team in the league, but consider veterans
Jeff Blake and Emmitt Smith on offense with a decent
offensive line. Detroit will be improved this season,
but I like the mild upset out of the gate.
Prediction: CARDINALS, 19-16
|
Cardinals:
none
Lion:
RB James Stewart (out for the season) |
Cardinals:
QB JBlake might be a fair sleeper pick, along with
WR BGilmore. RBs ESmith and MShipp will both get
carries.
Lions:
Expect RBs SBryson and newly-acquired
OGary to split duty. QB JHarrington has many targets
to pick from,
but none are impressive... yet. |
| ATLANTA at DALLAS |
Key Injuries |
Fantasy Take |
|
Line: Cowboys favored by 2
Records: Falcons 0-0 (0-0 ATS), Cowboys
0-0 (0-0 ATS).
Stats Worth Noting: The Falcons beat Dallas
last year at home, 20-13. The home team has won the
last five in this series.
Game Summary: All streaks must end, and
so shall the home teams' run. I like the Falcons
because of better balance on both sides of the ball.
Prediction: FALCONS, 17-10
|
Falcons:
QB Michael Vick (out)
Cowboys:
WR Antonio Bryant (out) |
Falcons:
Defense will rule the day. RB WDunn and WR PPrice
are iffy plays. Avoid others.
Cowboys:
RB THambrick is a play only in deeper
leagues. WR JGalloway deserves a shot, but WR TGlenn
risky at
best. The Dallas defense is OK. |
| CHICAGO at SAN FRANCISCO |
Key Injuries |
Fantasy Take |
|
Line: 49ers favored by 7
Records: Bears 0-0 (0-0 ATS), 49ers 0-0
(0-0 ATS).
Stats Worth Noting: Chicago won the last
meeting, in 2001 at Chicago, 37-31. But SF hasn't
lost at home to the Bears since 1984.
Game Summary: Looking to get Coach Dennis
Erickson's regime off on the right foot, the Niners
roll over an outmanned foe.
Prediction: 49ERS, 27-17
|
Bears:
none
49ers:
none |
Bears:
QB KStewart and WR MBooker are decent choices, but
the RB scenario is too iffy.
49ers:
QB JGarcia appears healthy, and should
hook up with WRs TOwens and TStreets often. If you
must use a Niners' RB, go with GHearst. |
| NEW ORLEANS at SEATTLE |
Key Injuries |
Fantasy Take |
|
Line: Seahawks favored by 3
Records: Saints 0-0 (0-0 ATS), Seahawks
0-0 (0-0 ATS).
Stats Worth Noting: New Orleans was 5-3 ATS
on the road last year, Seattle 3-5 at home.
Game Summary: Good matchup between teams
with similar strengths and weaknesses. Key turnover
decides it, and I like the host Seahawks.
Prediction: SEAHAWKS, 31-24
|
Saints:
none
Seahawks:
none |
Saints:
QB ABrooks, RB DMcAlister, WR JHorn all excellent
plays. WRs JPathon and DStallworth good in larger
leagues.
Seahawks:
I like all of Seattle's main skill
guys, but stay away from the defense. |
| OAKLAND at TENNESSEE |
Key Injuries |
Fantasy Take |
|
Line: Titans favored by 3
Records: Raiders 0-0 (0-0 ATS), Titans
0-0 (0-0 ATS).
Stats Worth Noting: Rematch of AFC Title
Game won by Raiders, who also won a regular season
game over the Titans while scoring more than 40 points
both times. Both those contests were at Oakland,
however.
Game Summary: The host Titans will be ultra-motivated,
and the Raiders did not look like their potent selves
in the preseason.
Prediction: TITANS, 34-20 *Pick of the Week
|
Raiders:
none
Titans:
none |
Raiders:
Although the team has struggled, QB RGannon, RB
CGarner, and three big WRs all should be in fantasy
lineups.
Titans:
Beyond the obvious plays of QB SMcNair,
RB EGeorge and WR DMason, TE FWycheck, K JNedney
and WR DBennett
are decent as well. |
| TAMPA BAY at PHILADELPHIA (Mon.) |
Key Injuries |
Fantasy Take |
|
Line: Eagles favored by 2 1/2
Records: Bucs 0-0 (0-0 ATS), Eagles 0-0
(0-0 ATS).
Stats Worth Noting: Prior to last year's
NFC Title Game, won by the eventual Super Bowl champion
Bucs, 27-10, Philly had dominated this season, both
home and away.
Game Summary: Similar to the Sunday night
matchup, I like home team revenge to be a major factor.
Prediction: EAGLES, 17-12
|
Bucs:
none
Eagles:
none |
Bucs:
None of the Bucs' offensive players, including WR
KJohnson, are automatic plays. I do like K MGramatica
and, of course, the Bucs D.
Eagles:
Even against the NFL's best defense, you have to
play QB DMcNabb. RB CBuckhalter is a decent sleeper,
and I like WR TPinkston as well as K DAkers and the
Eagles D/ST. |
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