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STRAIGHT-UP
Last Week -- 9-7 (56.3%)
Overall
-- 9-7 (56.3 %) |
AGAINST THE SPREAD
Last Week --
6-9-1 (40%)
Overall -- 6-9-1 (40%) |
PREMIUM PICKS*
Last Week -- 1-0 (100%)
Overall -- 1-0 (100%) |
Ok, so what did we learn the first week?
We learned that
the defending Super Bowl champion Tampa Bay Bucs are still
darned good.
We learned that it's not
neccessarily a sure thing that Rams QB Kurt Warner will
return to his 1999-2001 form.
We learned that the holdout
of Philadelphia RB Duce Staley ultimately meant next to
nothing.
We learned that the Buffalo Bills have a much improved
defense. Ditto Minnesota.
We learned that some things (the
Bengals, Quincy Carter, the Cardinals defense) never change.
And
lastly for now, we confirmed that any team can beat any
other team in any given week... right Miami?
PREVIEW - WEEK 2 (Sept 14-15)
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MIAMI at NEW YORK JETS
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Fantasy Take
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Key Injuries
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Line: Dolphins favored by 3
Records: Dolphins 0-1 (0-1 ATS), Jets 0-1
(0-0-1 ATS)
Stats Worth Noting: The Jets have won 3 of
the last 4 in this series, and are 14-6 ATS in the
last 20 meetings.
Game Summary: Miami's loss to Houston at
home was a real stunner, and it makes it more complicated
to analyze them from here on out. The Jets shouldn't
win this one, on paper, but they've usually had the
best of the Dolphins during coach Herman Edwards'
tenure.
Prediction: JETS, 21-16
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Dolphins:
Good news from Week 1 was the effectiveness of the
passing game. QB JFiedler is a good option in larger
leagues, RB RWilliams and WR CChambers in any league.
Jets:
There are no sure plays, including RB CMartin, who
was displaced by LJordan at the goal line in Week
1.
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Dolphins:
DB Sam Madison (ques.)
Jets:
QB Chad Pennington (out)
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BUFFALO at JACKSONVILLE
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Fantasy Take
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Key Injuries
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Line: Bills favored by 3
Records: Bills 1-0 (1-0 ATS), Jaguars 0-1
(1-0 ATS)
Stats Worth Noting: Buffalo won the last
meeting at Jax, 13-10 in 2001.
Game Summary: The Bills defense was ultra-impressive
in its opener, and New England figures to be more
of a threat at this point than the Jags. Go with
the hot team.
Prediction: BILLS, 24-17
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Bills:
Play every key player, including WR JReed.
Jaguars:
RB FTaylor is the only truly solid play. QB MBrunell
should be considered in the largest leagues only.
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Bills:
none
Jaguars:
WR Jimmy Smith (suspended through Week 4)
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CLEVELAND at BALTIMORE
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Fantasy Take
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Key Injuries
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Line: Ravens favored by 2 1/2
Records: Browns 0-1 (0-1 ATS), Ravens 0-1
(0-1 ATS)
Stats Worth Noting: Cleveland is 3-1 in its
last four against Baltimore, both straight-up and
ATS.
Game Summary: I was impressed with the play
of Cleveland's defense in its opener, shocked at
how poorly Baltimore performed. If the Browns can
pressure rookie QB Kyle Boller, it could be another
long day for the Ravens. Like Dolphins-Jets, another
mini-upset pick.
Prediction: BROWNS, 23-20
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Browns:
Don't expect this offense to have the same success
that Pittsburgh's had, but QB KHolcomb and WR QMorgan
are plays. Rest RB WGreen.
Ravens:
RB JLewis, TE THeap and the Ravens teams are good
bets, but the rest are borderline.
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Browns:
none
Ravens:
none
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PITTSBURGH at KANSAS CITY
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Fantasy Take
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Key Injuries
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Line: Chiefs favored by 3
Records: Steelers 1-0 (1-0 ATS), Chiefs
1-0 (1-0 ATS)
Stats Worth Noting: The Steelers have won
5 of the last 6 meetings, and every one of them has
been at KC. The two haven't played at Pittsburgh
since 1990.
Game Summary: With due respect to the Steelers'
dominance of this series, I like KC because the Chiefs
have more to prove. They seem to have a stingy defense
to go with the potent attack, and quality Chiefs
clubs are typically especially nasty at home.
Prediction: CHIEFS, 27-21
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Steelers:
The passing attack is reliable, but consider skipping
RB AZereoue. Tough matchup for the D, but still a
reason-able risk in bigger leagues.
Chiefs:
QB TGreen, RB PHolmes and TE TGonzalez are weekly
plays, but the WR scene is muddled.
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Steelers:
LB Joey Porter (out)
Chiefs:
none
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TENNESSEE at INDIANAPOLIS
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Fantasy Take
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Key Injuries
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Line: Colts favored by 2
Records: Titans 1-0 (1-0 ATS), Colts 1-0
(1-0)
Stats Worth Noting: The Titans swept the
season series a year ago and have won three of their
last four at Indy.
Game Summary: The Colts should be encouraged
by their opener, because they won despite struggling
on offense. It was a Tony Dungy-type game. But Tennessee
is more lethal, and better balanced. Plus, the Titans
have owned this series. I can't go against trends
on every game.
Prediction: TITANS, 24-20
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Titans:
Although Colts D is improved, QB SMcNair, RB EGeorge,
and WR DMason are musts. I like the Titans D, too.
Colts:
Go with the Big 3 of PManning, EJames and MHarrison,
and throw in TE MPollard as well. Make the D prove
it another week.
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Titans:
TE Frank Wycheck (ques.)
K Joe Nedney (out)
Colts:
WR Brandon Stokley(ques.)
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HOUSTON at NEW ORLEANS
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Fantasy Take
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Key Injuries
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Line: Saints favored by 8 1/2
Records: Texans 1-0 (1-0 ATS), Saints 0-1
(0-1 ATS)
Stats Worth Noting: First-ever meeting.
Game Summary: New Orleans certainly can't
let this one get away, but it won't be a gimme. The
line is too big, and a surprise because I'd think
a lot of the "action" would be on the 'dogs.
The Saints' passing attack is better than Miami's,
and that will be the difference.
Prediction: SAINTS, 26-21
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Texans:
RB SMack, WRs AJohnson and CBradford, and the defense
are OK in bigger leagues. QB DCarr? Really big leagues
only.
Saints:
QB ABrooks, RB DMcAlister, and WRs JHorn and DStallworth
are definites. K JCarney also inviting.
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Texans:
none
Saints:
none
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WASHINGTON at ATLANTA
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Fantasy Take
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Key Injuries
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Line: Falcons favored by 3
Records: Redskins 1-0 (0-0-1 ATS), Falcons
1-0 (1-0 ATS)
Stats Worth Noting: The teams have played
only three times in the last 11 years, and not since
1997.
Game Summary: Because of Michael Vick's absence,
the teams are comparable on offense. What sets them
apart is the Falcons' superior defense. At home,
it's too much for the Skins.
Prediction: FALCONS, 24-13
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Redskins:
Stay away from the RB set-up. If
you must, RB LBetts is your best, uh, "bets".
WRs LColes OK, but WR RGardner ignored in Week 1.
Falcons:
RB WDunn and WR PPrice are only strong plays. TE
ACrumpler good in most leagues. I like the defense,
too.
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Redskins:
none
Falcons:
QB Michael Vick (out)
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DETROIT at GREEN BAY
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Fantasy Take
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Key Injuries
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Line: Packers favored by 6 1/2
Records: Lions 1-0 (1-0 ATS), Packers 0-1
(0-1 ATS)
Stats Worth Noting: The Packers haven't lost
to Detroit at home since the 80s, and are 9-1 ATS
in their last 10.
Game Summary: Despite a banged-up WR corps
and a questionable defense, past results in this
rivalry are too strong an indication to ignore. Besides,
I look for a huge bounce-back effort by Brett Favre
and the Pack.
Prediction: PACKERS, 30-13
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Lions:
QB JHarrington is a go because you should play the
hot hand. WR CRogers can't be ignored, and WRs BSchroeder
and AHakim are intriguing.
Packers:
QB BFavre and RB AGreen are musts. Look for WRs
AFreeman, JWalker and TEs WWalls and BFranks to step
up. Leave the defense alone for now.
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Lions:
RB James Stewart (out)
Packers:
WR Donald Driver (out)
WR Robert Ferguson (doubt.)
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SAN FRANCISCO at ST. LOUIS
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Fantasy Take
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Key Injuries
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Line: Rams favored by 3
Records: 49ers 1-0 (1-0 ATS), Rams 0-1
(0-1 ATS)
Stats Worth Noting: The Rams have won 6 of
the last 8 meetings, and 4 in a row at home.
Game Summary: QB Marc Bulger gets the start
for St. Louis, and he's been dynamite as a home starter.
This game will show us if the Rams are legit contenders
or not. Watch the QB controversy explode after this
one.
Prediction: RAMS, 31-24
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49ers:
The passing game is a go, the running game iffy
because GHearst and KBarlow are getting roughly equal
time. Despite the big Week 1, bench the SF defense.
Rams:
Play Bulger and all the other key skill players,
as you normally would.
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49ers:
TE Eric Johnson (out)
Rams:
QB Kurt Warner (ques.)
DB Jason Sehorn (out)
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CAROLINA at TAMPA BAY
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Fantasy Take
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Key Injuries
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Line: Buccaneers favored by 9 1/2
Records: Panthers 1-0 (0-1 ATS), Buccaneers
1-0 (1-0 ATS)
Stats Worth Noting: The Bucs have won 4 of
the last 5 meetings, including a sweep last season,
but Carolina is 3-2 ATS over that stretch.
Game Summary: I have a funny hunch about
this game. I can't bring myself to predict a shocker
outright, but Carolina's defense and ground game
could cause Tampa Bay all sorts of problems. Look
for this one to be tight.
Prediction: BUCS, 13-10
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Panthers:
RB SDavis and the defense are only legit plays.
WR MMuham-mad should sit this one out.
Buccaneers:
WRs KJohnson and JJurevicius are quality, and of
course the defense. QB BJohnson only in larger leagues.
RBs take a seat.
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Panthers:
WR Kevin Dyson (out)
Buccaneers:
none
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SEATTLE at ARIZONA
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Fantasy Take
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Key Injuries
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Line: Seahawks favored by 4 1/2
Records: Seahawks 1-0 (1-0 ATS), Cardinals
0-1 (0-1 ATS)
Stats Worth Noting: Last year's two clashes
were the first between these two in over a decade,
and the road team won convincingly both times.
Game Summary: Look for the above trend to
continue, because the Seahawks have taken a step
up and have the offense to blow it out early, although
I expect the Cardinals to hang tough for a while
as they did at Detroit last week.
Prediction: SEAHAWKS, 34-20
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Seahawks:
All the key offensive players are easy plays, and
I like the defense as well in larger leagues.
Cardinals:
QB JBlake and WR ABoldin are the hot hands, so stick
with 'em. You're best off ignoring just about everyone
else.
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Seahawks:
DB Shawn Springs (out)
DL Chad Eaton (out)
Cardinals:
none
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NEW ENGLAND at PHILADELPHIA
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Fantasy Take
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Key Injuries
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Line: Eagles favored by 5 1/2
Records: Patriots 0-1 (0-1 ATS), Eagles
0-1 (0-1 ATS)
Stats Worth Noting: The Eagles won the only
meeting between the two since 1992.
Game Summary: Seeing the Eagles blanked
at home, even by a D as good as Tampa Bay's, was
a shocker... almost as amazing as New England's shutout
loss at Buffalo. Well, at least we know something
will probably give here. Looks like the Pats are
going to start 0-2.
Prediction: EAGLES, 24-13
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Patriots:
Not a bad week to bench everyone, but QB TBrady
and WR TrBrown are still OK plays.
Eagles:
Look for QB DMcNabb to bounce back, finding WR TPinkston
often. DStaley best RB option but I'd skip it. Defense
a must play.
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Patriots:
none
Eagles:
DL Jerome McDougle (doubt.)
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CINCINNATI at OAKLAND
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Fantasy Take
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Key Injuries
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Line: Raiders favored by 10 1/2
Records: Bengals 0-1 (0-1 ATS), Raiders
0-1 (0-1 ATS)
Stats Worth Noting: Cincinnati is 3-1 ATS
in the last four meetings, but the most recent was
1998.
Game Summary: Cincinnati is in the process
of going through that learning curve associated with
a new coach and a bunch of youngsters. The Raiders
are the polar opposites -- a bunch of old guys who
know how to get it done. This one has all the makings
of a good ol' fashioned butt-whuppin'.
Prediction: RAIDERS, 35-15
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Bengals:
RB CDillon might find some daylight, and WR CJohnson
has become a fantasy mainstay. That's 'bout it, though.
Raiders:
All the Raiders' key skill players, including dinged
WR JPorter, are sound plays in this one. Ditto the
defense.
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Bengals:
none
Raiders:
WR Jerry Porter (prob.)
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DENVER at SAN DIEGO
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Fantasy Take
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Key Injuries
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Line: Broncos favored by 3
Records: Broncos 1-0 (1-0 ATS), Chargers
0-1 (0-1 ATS)
Stats Worth Noting: The home team has dominated
this series, winning all but one since 1998.
Game Summary: I'm a Marty Schottenheimer
fan, and this is the type of game in which he tends
to do his best work. The Chargers have the tools
to be a player in the AFC West, and this is the game
they begin proving it -- against a division rival
playing its second road game in as many weeks.
Prediction: CHARGERS, 20-17
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Broncos:
You know I'm not a JPlummer fan, so it's no surprise
that I suggest he sits. RB CPortis, WR RSmith and
TE SSharpe are wise. So, too, is the defense.
Chargers:
QB DBrees a good sleeper pick, and RB LTomlinson
due for a big day. WR DBoston worth starting, but
give the others a week for further analysis.
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Broncos:
none
Chargers:
TE Stephen Alexander (prob.)
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CHICAGO at MINNESOTA (Sun. night)
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Fantasy Take
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Key Injuries
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Line: Vikings favored by 8
Records: Bears 0-1 (0-1 ATS), Vikings 1-0
(1-0 ATS)
Stats Worth Noting: The Bears are 9-3 ATS
in their last 12 at Minnesota, but was beaten there
a year ago, 25-7.
Game Summary: This is a rivalry game, which
typically is closer than the records suggest they
should be. But you can't help but consider what happened
in Week 1 -- the Vikes and the Yikes. I have to go
with the more recent trend in this one.
Prediction: VIKINGS, 38-17
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Bears:
What a mess. WR MBooker the only sure play. Others
like QB KStewart and RB AThomas you insert at your
own peril.
Vikings:
The key components of the passing game are no-brainers,
and RB MWilliams proved him-self worthy of a spot
in a fantasy lineup also. The defense a risk play
with large upside.
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Bears:
none
Vikings:
RB Michael Bennett (out) TE Byron Chamberlain (out)
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DALLAS at NEW YORK GIANTS (Mon.)
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Fantasy Take
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Key Injuries
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Line: Giants favored by 7 1/2
Records: Cowboys 0-1 (0-1 ATS), Giants
1-0 (1-0 ATS)
Stats Worth Noting: The Giants have dominated
at home in recent years, winning four straight including
a 37-7 rout last year.
Game Summary: Unfortunately for Dallas,
I see much the same type of game that transpired
last year at The Meadowlands. Smells like smoked
Tuna to me.
Prediction: GIANTS, 30-14
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Cowboys:
An ugly matchup. Only WR JGalloway and perhaps WR
ABryant are worthy of a start.
Giants:
QB KCollins, RB TBarber, WR AToomer and TE JShockey
are weekly plays. WR IHilliard OK in larger leagues.
Defense also a must this week. And K MBryant also
solid.
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Cowboys:
none
Giants:
K Mike Hollis (out)
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