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Predictions & Projections
By David M. Dorey
 
The Huddle
WEEK 3
September 17, 2003
Season Ticket
Sun 1 PM Sun 1 PM Sun 4 PM Sun 4 PM Mon 9 PM
JAX at IND NYJ at NE *NYG at WAS *GB at ARZ *OAK at DEN
*KC at HOU PIT at CIN STL at SEA Sun 8:30 PM Bye Week:
*MIN at DET *TB at ATL *BAL at SD BUF at MIA CAR, CHI
*NO at TEN Times EST CLE at SF *updated DAL, PHI
   
Kansas City vs Houston Sun, Sep 21; 1 PM on CBS at Reliant Stadium
  Kansas City Rush Catch Pass
QB Trent Green 0 0 180,2
RB Priest Holmes 100,1 40,1 0
TE Tony Gonzalez 0 20,1 0
WR Johnnie Morton 0 40 0
WR Marc Boerigter 0 30 0
WR Eddie Kennison 0 50 0
  Houston Rush Catch Pass
QB David Carr 10 0 240,1
RB Stacey Mack 40 10 0
TE Billy Miller 0 30 0
WR Corey Bradford 0 20 0
WR Andre Johnson 0 80,1 0
WR Jabar Gaffney 0 70 0


Game Prediction: KC 27, HOU 7

Update: Priest Holmes has been held out of practice due to the beating he took last week against the Steelers but is expected to play in what is a relative homecoming for the Texas native. The Chiefs have not made good on their preseason pledge to not use Holmes as much this season and while they may be tempted to rest him more, he is still an obvious start. HC Dick Vermiel also commented that it concerns him when TE Tony Gonzalez does not have many catches and that the game plan will certainly look to involve him more in the play calling.

The Chiefs defense continues to impress.

Last week against the Steelers, Kansas City had three interceptions and a fumble recovery and scored on one of the pick-offs. They have seven sacks in two games. They held the Steelers to only 60 yards rushing and the Chargers to only 64 yards rushing. Who are those guys and what are they doing wearing those helmets? The only reason that Pittsburgh ended up with 60 yards is because Zereoue broke a couple of runs late in the game against a blitz. Pittsburgh only had 13 yards rushing at the halftime. Dante Hall even added a 100 yard kickoff return touchdown.

Priest Holmes gained 122 yards rushing and scored on three runs but injured his ribs on his first jump into the endzone. He was taped up on the sidelines and obviously played through the pain well. The Steelers had leaped out to a 17-7 first quarter lead but only managed a second quarter field goal the rest of the game. Conversely, Priest Holmes and company scored 34 more points.

Trent Green only had 125 yards passing and two interceptions, but with Holmes - it was enough. In a game where Holmes ran at will again, Green focused on his two wideouts of Eddie Kennison (4-43) and Johnnie Morton (4-44) and never really used Tony Gonzalez (2-8). Marc Boerigter had no catches. Trent Green's first pass was intercepted and returned for a touchdown.

The Chiefs defense has vastly improved from last season and in controlling opponents, has allowed the Chiefs to just win games with Priest Holmes and little else. In fantasy terms, the offense will continue to be inconsistent outside of Holmes because it can.

The Texans were brought down to earth after their week one win over the Dolphins. Facing the Saints in New Orleans, David Carr fell back underneath 50% completions again and only posted 213 yards with no touchdowns outside of his own two yard run. Andre Johnson (5-71) and Jabar Gaffney (5-61) are promising but each had six passes to them fall incomplete. Carr was never sacked in week one but was dumped five times against New Orleans.

Stacey Mack's bullish game against Miami also disappeared, gaining only 31 yards on 13 carries while Domanick Davis had 23 yards on six carries later in the game. Tony Hollings is still playing special teams but his speed could supply a missing element from the "up the gut" style of Mack.

NT Seth Payne tore his ACL in the game and is lost for the season and kicker Kris Brown strained his groin and will not practice early this week as it heals.

The problem with the Texans opening day wins the past two years is that they never sneak up on anyone after that trick. Kansas City is combining Priest Holmes with a surprisingly opportunistic defense to win games this year and while it may reduce the fantasy value for players outside of Holmes, the Chiefs are more concerned with winning their games than you winning yours. Look for more Priest runs and the Texans to continue to make mistakes that the Chiefs defense will gladly accept..

KC
HOU
2003 Averages
HOU
KC
Gains
Allows
QB's
Gains
Allows
204
208
Pass yards
240
269
1
2.5
Pass TDs
0.5
1.5
1
1
Interceptions
1
2.5
4
3
Rush yards
8
8
0
0
Rush TDs
0.5
0
---
---
RB's
---
---
130
88
Rush yards
90
45
2.5
0
Rush TDs
0
0
67
46
Receive yards
16
31
0
0.5
Receive TD's
0
0
---
---
WR's
---
---
123
153
Receive yards
205
195
0.5
1.5
Receive TD's
0.5
1
---
---
TE's
---
---
15
9
Receive yards
19
32
0.5
0.5
Receive TD's
0
0.5
---
---
PK's
---
---
2
0.5
Field Goals
3
1
4
3.5
Extra Points
1
2
---
---
DEF/ST
---
---
0.5
0
Fumbles
0.5
0.5
2.5
1
Interceptions
1
1.5
1
0.5
Touchdowns
0
0.5
3.5
2.5
Sacks
2
2
0
0
Safeties
0
0
Chiefs (2-0)
Score Opp.
27-14 SD
41-20 PIT
Week 3 @HOU
Week 4 @BAL
Week 5 DEN
Week 6 @GB
Week 7 @OAK
Week 8 BUF
Week 9 BYE
Week 10 CLE
Week 11 @CIN
Week 12 OAK
Week 13 @SD
Week 14 @DEN
Week 15 DET
Week 16 @MIN
Week 17 CHI
Texans (1-1)
Score Opp.
21-20 @MIA
10-31 @NO
Week 3 KC
Week 4 JAX
Week 5 BYE
Week 6 @TEN
Week 7 NYJ
Week 8 @IND
Week 9 CAR
Week 10 @CIN
Week 11 @BUF
Week 12 NE
Week 13 ATL
Week 14 @JAX
Week 15 @TB
Week 16 TEN
Week 17 IND
(Statistics are game averages from current season )