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Predictions & Projections
By David M. Dorey
 
The Huddle
WEEK 4
September 24, 2003
Season Ticket
Sun 1 PM Sun 1 PM Sun 4 PM Sun 8:30 PM Bye Week:
ARZ at STL KC at BAL ATL at CAR *IND at NO Miami
TEN at PIT *NE at WAS DAL at NYJ Mon 9 PM NY Giants
CIN at CLE *PHI at BUF *DET at DEN *GB at CHI Seattle
JAX at HOU *SF at MIN *SD at OAK *updated Tampa Bay
   
Cincinnati vs Cleveland Sun, Sep 28; 1 PM on CBS at Cleveland Browns Stadium
  Cincinnati Rush Catch Pass
QB Jon Kitna 0 0 230,1
RB Corey Dillon 80 0 0
TE Reggie Kelly 0 30 0
WR Peter Warrick 0 70 0
WR Kelly Washington 0 30 0
WR Chad Johnson 0 80,1 0
  Cleveland Rush Catch Pass
QB Tim Couch 0 0 160,1
RB William Green 90,1 20 0
RB Jamel White 10 10 0
TE Steve Heiden 0 30 0
WR Kevin Johnson 0 70,1 0
WR Andre Davis 0 10 0
WR Quincy Morgan 0 20 0

Game Prediction: CIN 10, CLE 20

The Bengals come off a close loss to the Steelers, 10-17, in a game that Corey Dillon had gained 25 yards on six carries before twisting his leg in the loose turf. He had one more run for a yard before pulling himself from the game with a strained groin. This now makes two weeks that Dillon has not played the entire game since he hyperextended his knee against Oakland in yet another close loss.

When Dillon came out, Brandon Bennett (6-12) replaced him with about half the results of Dillon. Against Oakland, Dillon gained 84 yards on 19 carries. Bennett also had 19 carries in the game but only managed 43 yards. This week Rudi Johnson will get the call if Dillon cannot play.

Chad Johnson (4-77) was less effective against the Steelers and Peter Warrick (4-21) had the lone touchdown. Jon Kitna also cooled facing the new Cover-2 of Pittsburgh, throwing for only 157 yards compared to his previous games of 264 and 317 yards in the previous weeks.

Losing Dillon changes the entire dynamics of the offense and Dillon will likely be questionable this week against the team that Jamal Lewis recently shredded. Dillon gained around 100 yards in both matchups last season against the Browns. There is a reason to get healthy again. Until information is known later in the week regarding Dillon's status, I am assuming that he will play but be limited in the game.

Matt Schobel is still doubtful this week with his lingering hamstring problem and is replaced by Reginald Kelly.

Cleveland spent the first three quarters of the 49ers game last week looking just as punchless as they had the first two weeks. Thanks to the inability of San Francisco to score a touchdown, they left the door open for the two touchdown drives by the Browns that won the game.

Kelly Holcomb finally came to life and ended with 222 yards and two touchdowns. Andre' Davis (5-43) caught both scores but also had a fumble. He also hurt his wrist on that final touchdown. While Quincy Morgan was the star last season, he has yet to catch more than two passes in a game and although he led the league in yards after catch last season, his five receptions this year have all been around ten to twelve yard gains. The player that has benefited this season is clearly Kevin Johnson who caught 11 of the 16 passes thrown to him for 109 yards last week. Before that his six catches against Baltimore was tops for the team in week two.

After the game it was reported that Kelly Holcomb actually suffered a hairline fracture to his fibula and he is expected to miss at least one game and possibly more. HC Butch Davis will not officially consider Holcomb out before practice starts on Wednesday and may wait even longer but the safer bet is that Tim Couch gets his old job back for at least this week.

William Green only gained 47 yards on 15 carries in the game last week but the Browns went to a heavier passing game due to trailing on the scoreboard.

This game prediction and projections will undoubtedly change later in the week as more is known regarding Holcomb and Dillon. Look for the Browns to start working on the running game with William Green again against a defense that is more easily beaten on the ground than through the air. Since Couch will likely play, the passing game will no more effective than it has this season though Kevin Johnson was always a favorite of Couch anyway.

CIN
CLE
2003 Averages
CLE
CIN
Gains
Allows
QB's
Gains
Allows
241
162
Pass yards
184
153
1.0
0.0
Pass TDs
1.0
0.3
1.7
1.3
Interceptions
1.7
1.3
6
14
Rush yards
2
2
0.0
0.0
Rush TDs
0.0
0.0
----
----
RB's
----
----
67
146
Rush yards
67
136
0.3
0.7
Rush TDs
0.0
1.3
17
23
Receive yards
22
38
0.0
0.0
Receive TD's
0.0
0.0
----
----
WR's
----
----
166
106
Receive yards
141
100
1.0
0.0
Receive TD's
1.0
0.3
----
----
TE's
----
----
58
33
Receive yards
20
15
0.0
0.0
Receive TD's
0.0
0.0
----
----
PK's
----
----
1.3
3.7
Field Goals
1.3
2.3
1.3
0.7
Extra Points
1.0
2.3
----
----
DEF/ST
----
----
0.0
0.7
Fumbles
0.7
0.7
1.3
1.7
Interceptions
1.3
1.7
0.0
0.3
Touchdowns
0.0
0.7
0.7
2.0
Sacks
2.3
3.3
0.0
0.0
Safeties
0.0
0.0
Bengals (0-3)
Score Opp.
10-30 DEN
20-23 @OAK
10-17 PIT
Week 4 @CLE
Week 5 @BUF
Week 6 BYE
Week 7 BAL
Week 8 SEA
Week 9 @ARZ
Week 10 HOU
Week 11 KC
Week 12 @SD
Week 13 @PIT
Week 14 @BAL
Week 15 SF
Week 16 @STL
Week 17 CLE
Browns(1-2)
Score Opp.
6-9 IND
13-33 @BAL
13-12 @SF
Week 4 CIN
Week 5 @PIT
Week 6 OAK
Week 7 SD
Week 8 @NE
Week 9 BYE
Week 10 @KC
Week 11 ARZ
Week 12 PIT
Week 13 @SEA
Week 14 STL
Week 15 @DEN
Week 16 BAL
Week 17 @CIN
(Statistics are game averages from current season )