VOTED #1 FANTASY FOOTBALL SITE
1998, 1999, 2000, 2001 & 2002
PRIORITY NEWS   MESSAGE BOARDS JOIN   
HOME ARTICLES STATISTICS WEEKLY FEATURES TEAM LINKS NFL RESOURCES  
Predictions & Projections
By David M. Dorey
 
The Huddle
WEEK 4
September 24, 2003
Season Ticket
Sun 1 PM Sun 1 PM Sun 4 PM Sun 8:30 PM Bye Week:
ARZ at STL KC at BAL ATL at CAR *IND at NO Miami
TEN at PIT *NE at WAS DAL at NYJ Mon 9 PM NY Giants
CIN at CLE *PHI at BUF *DET at DEN *GB at CHI Seattle
JAX at HOU *SF at MIN *SD at OAK *updated Tampa Bay
   
Jacksonville vs Houston Sun, Sep 28; 1 PM on CBS at Reliant Stadium
  Jacksonville Rush Catch Pass
QB Mark Brunell 0 0 170,1
QB Byron Leftwich 0 0 150,1
RB Fred Taylor 90,1 20 0
TE Kyle Brady 0 30 0
WR J.J. Stokes 0 30 0
WR Matthew Hatchette 0 50,1 0
WR Cortez Hankton 0 10 0
  Houston Rush Catch Pass
QB David Carr 10 0 240,2
RB Stacey Mack 60,1 20 0
RB Tony Hollings 40 0 0
TE Billy Miller 0 20 0
WR Corey Bradford 0 20 0
WR Andre Johnson 0 100,1 0
WR Jabar Gaffney 0 60,1 0


Game Prediction: JAX 17, HOU 21

Update: Mark Brunell's lacerated elbow has five stitches now and he is questionable to play. Problem is that the decision to play him or not may not be final until gametime. While HC Jack Del Rio has been somewhat elusive on the question, Byron Leftwich has taken all the first team snaps in practice - not David Garrard. While Brunell could make it into the game, the most likely scenario is that Leftwich will get his first start as a pro instead of his previous limited duty mopping up after games are decided. Leftwich has shown enough talent that I am not changing the final score, but am slightly decreasing the numbers for the Jaguars.

Domanick Davis is healthy again and with he, Jonathan Wells and Tony Hollings all available for carries, I am not going to project running backs other than Stacey Mack who will look to have a big day against his old team. Hollings and Davis could both receive carries depending on the game situation, but with that much of an unknown I am removing Hollings and not including Davis or Wells.

After starting out with a one point loss in Carolina this season, the Jacksonville offense is slowly getting a few points worse each game.

Fred Taylor comes off a strong 17 carry, 126 yard effort against the Colts which included 22 and 42 yard runs, a couple of ten yard scampers and mostly 1 yard thuds. Taylor is seventh in rushing yards this season though a disappointment for those counting on touchdowns - he has none.

Mark Brunell has cooled significantly since his masterful job in week one and now has five stitches in his left elbow and his status for this week is still not determined. If he cannot play, Byron Leftwich would be the most likely Canidate though HC Jack Del Rio would only say that all three of his quarterbacks are worthy to start for him which includes David Garrard. After writing the signing bonus check, management may feel the field is less crowded.

Byron Leftwich has thrown 11 completions on only 13 passes this season with two touchdowns though both came so late in games that most had left the stadium already. Already 0-3 in a division with Indianapolis and Tennessee, it would make sense to give the kid some playing time but Del Rio is committed to using Brunell if he is healthy, and that includes waiting until gametime to make the decision if needed. I am assuming that Brunell plays.

Jimmy Smith has only one more game to sit out before his suspension is over.

The Texans have fallen to 1-2 after their loss to the Chiefs and yet look improved from last season thanks largely to both the additions in the spring. Stacey Mack only gained 39 yards on 13 carries but finally figured into the passing game with six catches for 43 yards. The rookie Tony Hollings finally played and gained 41 yards on only seven carries. Hollings had nice runs but was benched in the third quarter when he made a costly fumble. He should continue to provide a change of pace to Mack and combined, a far better inside/outside game than the Texans have had.

Andre Johnson had his best game of his young career by catching seven passes for 102 yards and scoring two touchdowns. While the Texans offense was little more than pitch and catch with Billy Miller at the end of last year, Johnson is making a case for rookie of the year so far and is currently 10th in the NFL for receiving yardage. Of course Anquan Bolding may disagree.

This matchup pits the Jacksonville defense that is tough on the run, soft on the pass against the Texans who are slowly coming to terms with having a balanced offense with more than one weapon to use. Look for Tony Hollings and Stacey Mack to likely split the rushing yardage and for David Carr to have one of his better games. Fred Taylor should enjoy another good afternoon and get his first touchdown of the season while the difference in the game will be a better passing attack from Houston playing at home. A good game that should be close.

These two teams locked horns twice last season with the Texans beating the Jaguars in Jacksonville. This year's team will miss the two touchdowns and 150 yards that Jimmy Smith gained last year in their two meetings.

JAX
HOU
2003 Averages
HOU
JAX
Gains
Allows
QB's
Gains
Allows
203
226
Pass yards
232
224
1.3
2.0
Pass TDs
1.0
2.3
0.0
1.3
Interceptions
1.3
1.0
6
4
Rush yards
10
-1
0.3
0.0
Rush TDs
0.3
0.0
----
----
RB's
----
----
99
114
Rush yards
91
81
0.3
1.0
Rush TDs
0.0
1.0
40
55
Receive yards
29
23
0.0
0.3
Receive TD's
0.0
0.0
----
----
WR's
----
----
139
148
Receive yards
187
173
1.3
1.3
Receive TD's
1.0
2.3
----
----
TE's
----
----
24
23
Receive yards
17
27
0.0
0.3
Receive TD's
0.0
0.0
----
----
PK's
----
----
1.3
0.3
Field Goals
2.0
1.7
1.7
4.7
Extra Points
1.3
3.3
----
----
DEF/ST
----
----
0.0
0.7
Fumbles
0.3
0.7
1.0
1.3
Interceptions
1.3
0.0
0.0
1.0
Touchdowns
0.0
0.0
1.3
2.0
Sacks
1.7
3.0
0.0
0.0
Safeties
0.0
0.3
Jaguars (0-3)
Score Opp.
23-24 @CAR
17-38 BUF
13-23 @IND
Week 4 @HOU
Week 5 SD
Week 6 MIA
Week 7 BYE
Week 8 TEN
Week 9 @BAL
Week 10 IND
Week 11 @TEN
Week 12 @NYJ
Week 13 TB
Week 14 HOU
Week 15 @NE
Week 16 NO
Week 17 @ATL
Texans (1-2)
Score Opp.
21-20 @MIA
10-31 @NO
14-42 KC
Week 4 JAX
Week 5 BYE
Week 6 @TEN
Week 7 NYJ
Week 8 @IND
Week 9 CAR
Week 10 @CIN
Week 11 @BUF
Week 12 NE
Week 13 ATL
Week 14 @JAX
Week 15 @TB
Week 16 TEN
Week 17 IND
(Statistics are game averages from current season )