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This
is a weekly view of the upcoming games considering the
perspective of the sportsbooks to see how their information
about teams and trends can be relevant to your fantasy
football team. There are probably a few of you who feel
that the gaming industry should give to you for a change.
This view is interesting and different from fantasy football
since it considers the teams and games as a whole first
considering trends and motivations and only later the
players – almost
the exact opposite from when you decide your weekly starting
players.
If you would like a detailed introduction to this
new weekly feature at The Huddle please
click here.
New England (2-1) at Washington (2-1)
Vegas Line
Total Points = 43
Predicted Outcome
Total Points = 41
WAS 24, NE 17
Trends
No recent previous regular season meetings between these
teams.
Under is 11-5 in the Patriots last 16 overall.
Motivation
Both teams are 2-1 and leading their divisions. Both
teams will need a win to remain on top this week. Washington
comes off a tough loss and New England comes off a win.
Opinion
The wise guys have noted that Washington QB Patrick Ramsey
has shown some flashes of brilliance this year, but Head
Coach Steve Spurrier has shown a conservative approach
as well. WR Laveranues Coles has made a tremendous difference
in this offense. His speed and play-making ability has
opened up the passing game and teamed with Rod Garner they
have a great receiving combo and that has really helped
Ramsey. Combined with an impressive runningback by committee
with Ladell Betts and Trung Canidate carrying the ball,
Vegas thinks the Redskins are solid on offense.
On the other hand, New England has all sorts of problems
on defense with injuries. S Lawyer Milloy was cut, Ted
Washington broke his leg and he's out, LB Rosevelt Colvin
is done for the year, LB Ted Johnson is out this game,
and LB Mike Vrabel is doubtful, also CB Ty Law is questionable. They
could have six starters out on defense and all three starting
linebackers.
And the Patriots' injuries don't end on offense. QB Tom
Brady has an elbow injury on his throwing hand. (It's
been said to swell up like a grapefruit after a game) and
the center of his offensive line is banged up.
Big point swing in this game since it opened. Washington
began the week as 1-˝-point favorites and the line moved
quickly. The Redskins are three point favorites around
town. All the money is coming in on Washington in this
contest.
Kansas City (3-0) at Baltimore (2-1)
Vegas Line
Total Points = 45
Predicted Outcome
Total Points = 47
KC 27, BAL 20
Trends
No recent previous regular season meetings between these
teams.
Over is 6-2 in Baltimore's last eight games overall.
Over is 13-6 in Chiefs' last 19 games overall.
Motivation
Both teams are that the top of their divisions. Both
teams are coming off a convincing road victory. RB Priest
Holmes returns to Baltimore. The last time he was in town
Holmes was losing his starting job to Jamal Lewis. Both
runningbacks should be motivated for this game.
Opinion
This has been the break out season for he Chiefs so far. The
defense is much improved and the special teams are outstanding.
DE Vonnie Holiday has been a huge addition and the young
secondary has a year under its belt. Dante' Hall is the
most dangerous return man in the league right now. That
said, there's still a number of doubters among the handicappers. One
of the better known has openly said Baltimore will win
this game.
But, Baltimore has problems. They've been very fortunate
to have faced both the Browns and the Chargers, and neither
team can stop the run. The bookies want to know what's
going to happen when RB Jamal Lewis can't run the football
and they have to throw the ball? They have their doubts
that QB Kyle Boller is going to make any plays. If KC
can stop the run, and Boller has to throw it's thought
that the Baltimore offense will struggle much like they
struggled against the Steelers in Week 1. Vegas thinks
you will see that again this week.
Philadelphia (0-2) at Buffalo (2-1)
Vegas Line
Total Points =41
Predicted Outcome
Total Points = 44
BUF 24, PHI 20
Trends
No recent previous regular season meetings between these
teams.
Under is 11-2 in Bills' last 13 games overall.
Motivation
Both teams are coming off a loss. Philadelphia is coming
off a bye week. The Eagles were supposed to challenge
for their conference title and a loss would put them squarely
behind the eight ball. Buffalo will be looking to reestablish
themselves as the favorite in the AFC East and a Super
Bowl contender.
Opinion
Vegas thinks this is the earliest must-win situation that
the handicappers can remember. The Eagles dropped two
home games and looked bad in doing so.
Philadelphia were thought to be legitimate Super Bowl
contenders and many expected they would pick up where they
left off when QB McNabb returned from injury last season. That
hasn't happened. Now Philly goes on the road, they can't
run the ball, and they're facing 0-3.
The Eagles defense is really banged up and they're down
to six defensive linemen, one of which is an undrafted
rookie. Philly has only two natural defensive ends and
their best two players in the secondary are expected to
miss the game.
Philadelphia's offense has been taking a lot of hits in
town over the past two weeks. The criticism isn't of McNabb,
but the wise guys don't think much of what he's working
with. No running game, no speed at wide receiver, poor
tactics, so it's all on QB Donovan McNabb's shoulders. The
wise guys think he has to start making some plays with
his legs. The Eagles really need him to run the football
to win this ball game.
The sportsbooks have noted that Buffalo's running game
remains missing in action. RB Travis Henry is questionable
for the game and his health and availability will go a
long ways in determining who wins this game. The professionals
think the Buffalo defense is very solid despite the rushing
yardage they gave up last week. However, Vegas noticed
that the Bills' offensive line struggled against the Dolphins
pass rush last Sunday. The sportsbooks are expecting the
Eagles to throw everything and the kitchen sink at QB Drew
Bledsoe.
Tennessee (2-1) at Pittsburgh (2-1)
Vegas Line
Total Points = 44
Predicted Outcome
Total Points = 45
TEN 24, PIT 21
Trends
| |
|
|
|
TEN |
|
|
PIT |
|
| Date |
Away |
Home |
Tot |
Rush |
Pass |
Tot |
Rush |
Pass |
| 1/11/2003 |
PIT 31 |
TEN 34 |
430 |
99 |
331 |
324 |
67 |
257 |
| 11/17/2002 |
PIT 23 |
TEN 31 |
378 |
121 |
257 |
357 |
45 |
312 |
| 11/25/2001 |
PIT 34 |
TEN 24 |
405 |
81 |
324 |
377 |
130 |
247 |
| 10/29/2001 |
TEN 7 |
PIT 34 |
214 |
57 |
157 |
405 |
133 |
272 |
| 11/5/2000 |
PIT 7 |
TEN 9 |
364 |
148 |
216 |
167 |
74 |
93 |
| 9/24/2000 |
TEN 23 |
PIT 20 |
372 |
85 |
287 |
364 |
115 |
249 |
| 1/2/2000 |
TEN 47 |
PIT 36 |
337 |
140 |
197 |
433 |
138 |
295 |
Over is 6-1 in the last seven meetings.
Over is 14-7 in Steelers' last 21 games overall.
Motivation
Oh, yea. Lots of motivation here as both teams have simmered
for months following their controversial overtime playoff
game. A big, late game comeback by the Titans was aided
by several questionable calls by the game officials including
a penalty on the winning field goal. The Titans kicker
took a dive after missing his first attempt and the officials
called a roughing penalty on Pittsburgh. Tennessee won
the game on the re-kick. Pittsburgh still feels they were
cheated out of their opportunity to meet Oakland in the
AFC Championship game. For their part, Tennessee views
this game as an old AFC Central rivalry despite the move
by the Titans to the new AFC South.
Opinion
The handicappers have mentioned that his injured finger
has effected McNair's deep ball. He doesn't have that
tight spiral. McNair also can't scramble with the injured
knee. But his ability to play through injury is a huge
inspiration for this team
The Titans took advantage of the banged up Saints defense
and now the Oakland win looks less impressive as well. However,
Tennessee has won 12 of their last 14 games and their only
losses have been a one-point loss to the Ravens and the
blow out loss and Indy this season. The handicappers have
always thought that the Titans were one of the mentally
toughest teams in the league. Something you look for in
a good road team.
The wise guys think the Titans defense is the key to this
game. Their defensive line is one of the best in the game. They
manhandled the Saints last week and they should handle
the beat up Steelers offensive line this week. Vegas thinks
that this will be a very tight game, coming down to the
last possession.
Cincinnati (0-3) at Cleveland (1-2)
Vegas Line
Total Points = 41
Predicted Outcome
Total Points = 38.5
CLE 23, CIN 14
Trends
| |
|
|
|
CIN |
|
|
CLE |
|
| Date |
Away |
Home |
Tot |
Rush |
Pass |
Tot |
Rush |
Pass |
| 11/17/2002 |
CLE 27 |
CIN 20 |
350 |
102 |
248 |
382 |
140 |
242 |
| 9/15/2002 |
CIN 7 |
CLE 20 |
357 |
156 |
201 |
265 |
75 |
190 |
| 11/25/2001 |
CIN 0 |
CLE 18 |
191 |
84 |
107 |
249 |
78 |
171 |
| 10/14/2001 |
CLE 14 |
CIN 24 |
400 |
199 |
201 |
211 |
34 |
177 |
| 10/29/2000 |
CIN 12 |
CLE 3 |
240 |
179 |
61 |
182 |
54 |
128 |
| 9/10/2000 |
CLE 24 |
CIN 7 |
318 |
111 |
207 |
354 |
105 |
249 |
Under is 4-2 in the last six meetings.
Under is 5-0 in Cincinnati's last five games overall.
Under is 7-3-1 in the Browns last 11 overall.
Motivation
First leg of the Battle of Ohio. The Bengals are coming
off two straight loses while the Browns pulled one out
of the fire on the road at San Francisco.
Opinion
RB Corey Dillon was injured again last week. He remains
day-to-day is two injuries. If he can't play or can't
play well, Vegas thinks the Bengals have little chance
in this game.
QB Kelly Holcomb will not play with a fractured leg. The
sportsbooks think QB Tim Couch isn't much of a downgrade,
he's certainly capable, and he's had good games. He's
in a great position win back the support of the team, the
coaching staff, and the Browns' fans with a victory.
Couch got this opportunity because the Browns really have
done nothing on offense this year. But, they played three
really aggressive defenses so far this year. Indianapolis
was very aggressive, Baltimore blitzed a lot, and San Francisco
blitzed just about every down. The pros think Cincinnati
doesn't have the personnel to do that. They can't get
a lot of pressure on the quarterback. Vegas thinks Couch
should light up the Bengals' secondary.
San Francisco (1-2) at Minnesota (3-0)
Vegas Line
Total Points = 43
Predicted Outcome
Total Points = 47
SF 27, MIN 20
Trends
No recent previous regular season meetings between these
teams.
Motivation
T.O. fragged his teammates and the 49ers coaching staff
in the press for the first time this season following the
loss to the Browns. He was upset with the play calling
in the red zone and the offensive line's poor pass protection. The
Vikings haven't recorded their first Randy Moss incident
of the season. Both Culpepper and Moss are questionable
for this game, but the sportsbooks think both will play
this week.
Opinion
The handicappers are of the opinion that this Minnesota
offensive line is as good as any in the league. They simply
grind down the opposing defenses with their physical style
of play. The weapons Minnesota has at wide receiver and
runningback look a lot better with that big offensive line
on the field.
The Vikings have been very fortunate so far this season. They
held off the Lions' late charge on three separate drives
in the fourth quarter. But, their luck may be running
out. Injuries are starting to take their toll. Culpepper
and Moss are hurting and the other wide receiver D'Wayne
Bates is also hurt. Minnesota's runningbacks are all banged
up. With all their skill position players having some
kind of injury, that has to have some kind of effect on
this team.
SF has come up short the last two games. This is not
a team that will accept losing. Vegas thinks the 49ers
have a situational advantage in this game.
Atlanta (1-2) at Carolina (2-0)
Vegas Line
Total Points = 36
Predicted Outcome
Total Points = 38
ATL 31, CAR 27
Trends
| |
|
|
|
ATL |
|
|
CAR |
|
| Date |
Away |
Home |
Tot |
Rush |
Pass |
Tot |
Rush |
Pass |
| 11/24/2002 |
ATL 41 |
CAR 0 |
426 |
149 |
277 |
122 |
71 |
51 |
| 10/20/2002 |
CAR 0 |
ATL 30 |
393 |
187 |
206 |
205 |
101 |
104 |
| 11/25/2001 |
ATL 10 |
CAR 7 |
239 |
145 |
94 |
247 |
96 |
151 |
| 9/23/2001 |
CAR 16 |
ATL 24 |
377 |
121 |
256 |
359 |
89 |
270 |
| 10/29/2000 |
CAR 12 |
ATL 13 |
281 |
97 |
184 |
209 |
30 |
179 |
| 9/17/2000 |
ATL 15 |
CAR 10 |
262 |
108 |
154 |
284 |
59 |
225 |
Over is 8-3 in Falcons' last 11 games overall.
Over is 4-2 in Carolina's last six games overall.
Motivation
Atlanta has owned this series. They outscored the Panthers
71-0 in the combined two games last year and have won the
last six meetings. The Panthers should be looking for
a little payback this week. The Falcons just got smoked
by the Buc's last week at home and didn't look very good
on offense or on defense.
Opinion
Atlanta's faced a number of top defenses this year. Vegas
is of the opinion that QB Doug Johnson's having trouble
making the right reads. He's missing open receivers, not
looking off receivers, and missing the hot receiver. That
may have something to do with the defenses he's faced. Still,
Atlanta's a very good road team.
Carolina is a much better offensive team this year and
given the two embarrassing losses to the Falcons last year
and the bye week, they should be focused this Sunday.
The handicappers' analysis is that the Panthers' defense
looks tough, but they're not very good against the pass
and the public's perception is that they're better than
they really are. In short, Vegas thinks this Panthers' team
is one of the most over-rated in the league. Their defense
is rated 25th in the NFL and the offense is
rated 30th.
The other problem is on offense. Despite being better
than 2002, Vegas has noted that the Carolina offense hasn't
had a lot of success and if it wasn't for RB Stephen Davis
they wouldn't have a touchdown this year. Most of the
wise guys are lining up behind Atlanta in this game.
Arizona (1-2) at St. Louis (1-2)
Vegas Line
Total Points = 45
Predicted Outcome
Total Points = 45
STL 31, ARI 14
Trends
| |
|
|
|
ARI |
|
|
STL |
|
| Date |
Away |
Home |
Tot |
Rush |
Pass |
Tot |
Rush |
Pass |
| 12/15/2002 |
ARI 28 |
STL 30 |
378 |
129 |
249 |
366 |
66 |
300 |
| 11/3/2002 |
STL 27 |
ARI 14 |
235 |
64 |
171 |
415 |
192 |
223 |
Under is 3-1 in the last four meetings.
The over is 7-3 in the Cardinals' last 10 games overall
Motivation
The Cardinals are coming off a huge win over the Packers
and the Rams are coming off two consecutive close defeats.
Opinion
Both teams are really beat up. RB Marshall Faulk will
miss some time with the hand and knee injuries. A lot
of the Cardinals secondary players are banged up and most
of their back-up wide receivers will miss this game.
Despite the upset last week, the Cardinals are as bad
as it gets in the NFL. Vegas has them below the Lions,
Jaguars, Texans, and Bengals in their power ratings.
However, the Rams aren't the same team they were a few
years ago. The handicappers note a number of problems:
St. Louis don't have balance on offense (especially without
Faulk in the line-up); they don't have depth at the third
and fourth receiver positions; the Rams have no running
game; they aren't putting up big numbers on offense; and
their defense has blown leads in the last two games. In
short, Vegas is using this game as a citywide bitch session.
But as much as they hate St. Louis, none of the handicappers
wants to put down money against them in this game. The
Cardinals are too unreliable for their money.
Jacksonville (0-3) at Houston (1-2)
Vegas Line
Total Points =39
Predicted Outcome
Total Points = 36.5
HOU 20, JAX 17
Trends
| |
|
|
|
JAX |
|
|
HOU |
|
| Date |
Away |
Home |
Tot |
Rush |
Pass |
Tot |
Rush |
Pass |
| 11/17/2002 |
JAC 24 |
HOU 21 |
321 |
122 |
199 |
272 |
78 |
194 |
| 10/27/2002 |
HOU 21 |
JAC 19 |
290 |
126 |
164 |
242 |
81 |
161 |
The last two meetings have played over.
Motivation
Both teams need to win the game. The victor has hope
for the remainder of the season. The loser will try and
avoid an embarrassing season. Both teams are coming off
consecutive losses.
Opinion
Vegas has no interest this game. Both teams are too unreliable
to get much support.
They think Houston is capable of putting up the great
effort, although they are very inconsistent. The Texans
have enough defense that they can jump up and bite someone.
The Jaguars have had a tough start of the season. They
faced three really good teams and now they step down in
class. They have good personnel on the defensive side
of the ball and the handicappers think they may show something
this week. However, they may come out flat after facing
bigger games in each of their first three weeks.
San Diego (0-3) at Oakland (1-2)
Vegas Line
Total Points =43
Predicted Outcome
Total Points = 41
OAK 28, SD 13
Trends
| |
|
|
|
SD |
|
|
OAK |
|
| Date |
Away |
Home |
Tot |
Rush |
Pass |
Tot |
Rush |
Pass |
| 12/8/2002 |
OAK 27 |
SD 7 |
291 |
65 |
226 |
393 |
67 |
326 |
| 10/20/2002 |
SD 27 |
OAK 21 |
333 |
172 |
161 |
390 |
37 |
353 |
| 12/15/2001 |
OAK 13 |
SD 6 |
274 |
68 |
206 |
299 |
91 |
208 |
| 11/18/2001 |
SD 24 |
OAK 34 |
250 |
152 |
98 |
381 |
88 |
293 |
| 10/29/2000 |
OAK 15 |
SD 13 |
224 |
29 |
195 |
228 |
83 |
145 |
| 9/3/2000 |
SD 6 |
OAK 9 |
255 |
76 |
179 |
233 |
67 |
166 |
Under is 13-3 in the Raiders' last 16 overall.
Motivation
The Raiders have won five of the last six meetings. Coming
off an embarrassing loss to Denver on Monday night, Oakland
will be desperate for a win. The Chargers are just plain
desperate after being out of the first three game by the
start of the fourth quarter. Both teams need a win right
now to save their seasons.
Opinion
The public perception of this Raiders team has gone straight
down after the Monday Night game. Now, everyone is down
on this team, including the bookies. The public thinks
they're down the media thinks they can't compete. But
some handicappers are looking at the game against the Titans. They
note that the Raiders were in that game until they end
and so they may be being judged a little harshly.
The question is if the Raiders can stop RB LaDainian Tomlinson. Last
year, San Diego came into Oakland, pounded the ball at
the Raiders defense, and walked out with the victory. Monday
night, Clinton Portis and the rest of the Broncos RBs ran
the ball well against the Raiders. Vegas is expecting
that Oakland may make some adjustments this week.
Without David Boston, San Diego has zero passing game. He
was suspended after being sent home from practice this
week. That makes the Chargers one-dimensional and no matter
how bad Oakland is playing right now, Vegas thinks they'll
handle the Chargers.
Dallas (1-1) at New York Jets (0-3)
Vegas Line
Total Points = 37
Predicted Outcome
Total Points = 37.5
DAL 20, NYJ 17
Trends
No recent previous regular season meetings between these
teams.
Under is 11-6 in Dallas' last 17 road games.
Over is 6-2 in Cowboys' last eight games overall.
Under is 8-3 in Jets' last 11 games overall.
Motivation
Dallas Head Coach Bill Parcells coached the Jets and 11
of their current players. New York QB Vinny Testaverde
had his best years with Parcells, so the Cowboys' Head
Coach should know what the Jets QB can and cannot do.
Also, there's still a lot of bad blood between the Jets
management and Parcells. They begged him to come back
and coach the Jets, but he said he was retired for good. Now
Parcells leads the Cowboys back into the Meadowlands. Jets
management will want this game badly.
Opinion
Vegas thinks this is a must win game for the Jets. But
the handicappers think the biggest factor is this game
is the relationship between Bill Parcells and Vinny Testaverde. No
one should know the Jets' quarterback's strengths and weaknesses
better than Parcells. Testaverde had his best years under
Parcells. With a week extra to prepare, Vegas thinks the
Cowboys will challenge Testaverde to make the throws he's
most uncomfortable with.
The Jets can't run the ball and they can't stop the run. In
their first three games they've been outrushed by 103,
146, and 82 yards. You're in a lot of trouble if you're
getting beaten by a large margin in the running game. A
lot of wise guys like the Cowboys in this game.
Detroit (1-2) at Denver (3-0)
Vegas Line
Total Points =44
Predicted Outcome
Total Points = 44
DEN 27, DET 17
Trends
No recent previous regular season meetings between these
teams.
Motivation
The sportsbooks think this is a classic "sandwich" game. Denver
may be flat after their big win against the Raiders and
get caught looking forward to the Chiefs' game. There's
talk already that RB Clinton Portis may sit this one out. He
has a rib problem, but could play if needed. If that happens,
it's a sure sign that the Broncos aren't taking the Lions
seriously and they may struggle early despite their overwhelming
talent advantage.
Opinion
The opinion around town is that Detroit is a terrible
road team. They only cover about a fourth of their road
games. The handicappers think Denver can beat this team
by three touchdowns at home if they wanted to, but won't. On
Monday night, Denver played the perfect game. They won't
have the motivation to do that again. The handicappers
think Denver will win, but they may sleepwalk through this
game.
Indianapolis (3-0) at New Orleans (1-2)
Vegas Line
Total Points = 43
Predicted Outcome
Total Points = 48
IND 27, NO 21
Trends
| |
|
|
|
IND |
|
|
NO |
|
| Date |
Away |
Home |
Tot |
Rush |
Pass |
Tot |
Rush |
Pass |
| 11/18/2001 |
IND 20 |
NO 34 |
339 |
77 |
262 |
378 |
157 |
221 |
The Colts' last five games overall have played under.
Over is 11-6 in Saints' last 17 home games.
Motivation
The Colts will look to go 4-0 while the Saints always
seem to play better in front of the home crowd.
Opinion
The Saints are really banged up. They had 23 rushing
yards and 11 first downs at Tennessee. Half of their defensive
starters may miss this game. On the other hand, the Colts
have injury problems on their offensive line and may be
without three starters.
The sportsbooks' opinion is that the Colts have a decent
running game so far. Maybe they're a little conservative,
but their showing more balance on offense. Also, Vegas
thinks Indianapolis is coming together on defense. Playing
the cover two zone, they've really shut down opponents
so far.
On the other hand, the wise guys think the Saint's offense
is due for a breakout game. They were embarrassed against
the Titans last week and that may get them fired up for
this night game on national television.
With New Orleans known for being a drinking town with
a bad football habit, the home supporters may be properly
lubricated well before the opening kickoff. The handicapper's
are staying as far away from this game as they can get.
Green Bay (1-2) at Chicago (0-2)
Vegas Line
Total Points = 41.5
Predicted Outcome
Total Points = 43
GB 27, CHI 16
Trends
| |
|
|
|
GB |
|
|
CHI |
|
| Date |
Away |
Home |
Tot |
Rush |
Pass |
Tot |
Rush |
Pass |
| 12/1/2002 |
CHI 20 |
GB 30 |
396 |
181 |
215 |
304 |
74 |
230 |
| 10/7/2002 |
GB 34 |
CHI 21 |
457 |
124 |
333 |
380 |
45 |
335 |
| 12/9/2001 |
CHI 7 |
GB 17 |
352 |
167 |
185 |
189 |
50 |
139 |
| 11/11/2001 |
GB 20 |
CHI 12 |
368 |
100 |
268 |
262 |
43 |
219 |
| 12/3/2000 |
GB 28 |
CHI 6 |
304 |
81 |
223 |
330 |
104 |
226 |
| 10/1/2000 |
CHI 27 |
GB 24 |
364 |
44 |
320 |
370 |
178 |
192 |
Under is 5-2 in the Packers' last six overall.
Under is 12-5 in Bears' last 17 games on turf.
Motivation
Big rivalry game for both teams. Playing on Monday night
on national television with the Bears opening remodeled
Soldier Field and both teams coming off a loss and needing
a win makes this is a very big game for both squads.
Opinion
Everyone in Vegas is behind the Packers in this game. As
one said, "Chicago can't beat the Packers on their home
field even when Green Bay has nothing to play for. QB
Bret Favre just eats up this Bears team. What will a pissed-off
Favre do to them this week coming off a loss to the Cardinals?" Vegas
expects the Bears to come out and play with emotion, but
in the end, they don't have enough playmakers to stay with
the Packers through four quarters of a football game.
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