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fantasy football owner worth his salt knows that rookie
wide receivers rarely make a fantasy impact. Last season
for instance, no rookie receiver finished among the top
40 for receiving yards. Though Donte' Stallworth did score
eight touchdowns for the Saints, neither he nor fellow
first-rounders Javon Walker or Ashley Lelie helped owners
to a fantasy championship.
That is why most rookies selected in fantasy drafts are
running backs, as owners have a realistic chance at choosing
a player who can help them like Clinton Portis did for owners
last year. Randy Moss aside, the wide receiver position simply
requires too much from a rookie for him to excel in his first
season. In recent years, it has been a solid choice not to
count on rookies to fill your wide receiver slots.
In 2003, however, perhaps fantasy owners should look to
add a little pepper to their lineup. After three exciting
weekends of pro football action, two rookies are among the
top 10 in the league in receiving yards gained (Anquan Boldin
and Andre Johnson), and two other rookies are making a significant
fantasy impact (Bryant Johnson and Charles Rogers). Is this
an aberration or a developing trend? Let's look to these
four rookies to give us some clues.
Anquan Boldin - Cardinals - 2nd Round Pick - Boldin
is a big receiver who at one time in college was considered
to be a future first-round selection in the NFL Draft. Now
we know why. So far, Boldin is second in the league with
378 receiving yards, or an average of 126 per game. He also
has two touchdowns so far, so there is no concern about whether
he can tote it to the endzone. Anquan has developed a rapport
with new Cardinals quarterback Jeff Blake, and the two of
them were even instrumental in recently beating the Green
Bay Packers. Look for Boldin to be big for Arizona all year.
The team is trying to build a new identity, and what better
way than with a strong rookie. At this point, there is no
reason to not start him every week. You can always switch
to a veteran later is he begins to struggle.
Andre Johnson - Texans - 1st Round Pick - Houston's
first-round pick this year is making the entire team better.
His explosiveness on offense takes some of the pressure off
of quarterback David Carr, allowing the second-year QB the
chance to make plays to other receivers, like last year's
second rounder Jabar Gaffney. Johnson's 249 receiving yards
currently rank him 10th in the league, and like Anquan Boldin,
Johnson has crossed the stripe twice this year. There is
no doubt that Johnson has assumed the role of number one
receiver on his team, and the Texans will air it out to him
every game, looking for large gains from their big and fast
receiver. Johnson is clearly a starting fantasy wide receiver,
and will remain so unless NFL defenses decide to double-team
him consistently, and soon.
Bryant Johnson - Cardinals - 1st Round Pick - When
the Cardinals got rid of Frank Sanders and decided to let
David Boston leave in free agency, they tabbed Johnson as
a starter in the 2003 Draft to replace those players. Johnson,
like Boldin, has passed by players like Bryan Gilmore, Larry
Foster and Jason McAddley into a starting position. Johnson
is a big target, and is getting better at making something
of a play after catching the ball. He is already a decent
possession receiver, and should add to his impressive fantasy
start this season (161 yards). If he can start to reach the
endzone he will be a third starter in larger fantasy leagues.
Charles Rogers - Lions - 1st Round Pick - The former
Michigan State standout started off the season hot, catching
two touchdowns against Arizona. Since then, both he and his
quarterback (three interceptions in each of the last two
games) have been cooled by division rivals Green Bay and
Minnesota. Though Rogers is not among the top 40 in receiving
yards yet this season, he could quickly vault back into the
rankings with one big game. In his favor is the fact that
the Lions will be playing from behind in most of their games
this season (the product of losing three of their top four
cornerbacks to injury) and will find it necessary to use
the passing game to have a chance to catch up. Rogers is
clearly the top wideout on his team, and more time with Joey
Harrington will only benefit Detroit's soon-to-be dynamic
duo. See if you can trade for Rogers now to use him later
in the season. He already is a decent bye-week risk.
The question remains about the success of these rookie receivers.
Are they a collective anomaly? I think that they are not,
and for a reason that will grow in scope in the NFL in the
next few years: They are part of a trend to start skill-position
players as soon as possible due to dire need, created by
rampant free agency pressures. Think about the New York Jets
losing Laveranues Coles this offseason to the Redskins. Coles
is a young wideout who was developed by the Jets, and was
just coming into his prime as a wideout, when they decided
to let him go and focus on other positions. This trading
of wide receivers happens a lot these days, and you can see
that it hurts the teams who lose those players, as Coles
is currently leading the league with 391 receiving yards.
Both Detroit and Houston took players they thought would
become their number one receiver immediately. The Cardinals
selected two wideouts in the first two rounds, hoping that
at least one of them would quickly become a star. That plan
starkly contrasts with what the teams who drafted receivers
in the first round last year were hoping to accomplish. Denver
took Ashley Lelie as insurance for aging star receivers Rod
Smith and Ed McCaffrey. The Packers selected Javon Walker
to compete with Donald Driver and Robert Ferguson for one
of the two starting jobs, and the Saints tabbed Donte' Stallworth
in the first round even though they had star Joe Horn at
the position.
I think the rate of standout rookie receivers is a bit high
after three weeks in 2003, and I fully expect a few, if not
all of them, to produce at a slower pace as the season wears
on. However, I also expect there to be an increase in the
number of rookie receivers who can have a fantasy impact
in the coming years, making it a position not be ignored
in future fantasy drafts.
Joe Levit is based in Boston, and is a columnist for
cnnsi.com and thehuddle.com. His work has appeared in Fantasy
Football Index, Grogan's Fantasy Football Analyst and several
other fantasy magazines. He is a member of the Pro Football
Writers of America and a devoted Detroit Lions fan. Reach
him for comment, criticism or congratulations at lavishjetpoet@aol.com.
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