PREVIEW - WEEK 4 (Sept 28-29)

Line:    Redskins favored by 3

Records:  Patriots 2-1 (2-1 ATS); Redskins 2-1 (1-1-1 ATS)

Stats Worth Noting: All three of Washington's games have been decided by a field goal or less.

Game Summary:  The Redskins are obviously vastly improved, and have a legitimate shot at taking this one at home. But New England is rounding into form, and I still consider the Patriots the better team right now... as long as QB Tom Brady can get time to throw.

Prediction:  PATRIOTS, 20-16

Patriots:
No big numbers from this game, but QB TBrady still a play, along with WR TBrown. Also go with the Pats defense/ special teams.

Redskins:
QB PRamsey is getting it done, and WR LColes is an every-week player. WR RGardner and the Skins teams are fine in bigger leagues.

Line:    Bills favored by 3

Records:  Eagles 0-2 (0-2 ATS), Bills 2-1 (2-1 ATS)

Stats Worth Noting: Buffalo has won the last three meetings.

Game Summary:  Philly is in a world of hurt. Two lopsided home losses have the Eagles, a Super Bowl favorite of many, nearing a hole that they're unlikely to recover from. If points are awarded for desperation, give the Eagles the nod. Buffalo has to rebound from its relatively poor effort at Miami... but I can't help but think that QB Donovan McNabb is going to come to the rescue here, if only the injury-depleted Eagles D can amply support him and the offense. Upset time.

Prediction:  EAGLES, 20-17

Eagles:
QB DMcNabb will come up big if my hunch is correct. WR TPinkston likely to be top target. RB DStaley in larger leagues, and the Philly D due for a big effort.

Bills:
QB DBledsoe likely to rebound from poor game at Miami, WR EMoulds an obvious choice, and WR BShaw a better option than WR JReed. Avoid the running game if RB THenry doesn't play.

Line:    Browns favored by 6

Records:   Bengals 0-3 (1-2 ATS), Browns 1-2(1-2 ATS)

Stats Worth Noting: Cleveland has won the last three meetings outright, and is 7-1 in its last eight at home in this series.

Game Summary:  The Browns put together an inspired effort in their upset at San Francisco, but they're clearly a highly unpredictable team. The Bengals have a long way to go before they can be taken seriously on a weekly basis.

Prediction:  BROWNS, 27-13

Bengals:
RB Brandon Bennett is a decent choice in bigger leagues if CDillon sits out. QB JKitna an OK play because of lots of pass attempts.

Browns:
RB WGreen will get plenty of work, with QB KHolcomb hobbled. Skip either Holcomb or TCouch unless you're certain before kickoff who will get the nod. WRs a rotating mess, but DNorthcutt not a factor this week.

Line:    Steelers favored by 3

Records:   Titans 2-1 (2-1 ATS); Steelers 2-1 (2-1 ATS)

Stats Worth Noting: The Titans have won the last two meetings, but the home team has won four of the last five. Pittsburgh is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings.

Game Summary: An even clash, with the Steelers' vaunted air attack up against a pretty fair pass defense. The game might be decided by Tennessee's offensive success against the Steelers... but I like Pittsburgh to prevail at home in a fairly high-scoring contest.

Prediction:  STEELERS, 31-24

*(premium pick)

Titans:
QB SMcNair and the passing attack is a good bet to be pro-ductive. WR DMason still the top choice, with WR JMcCareins getting several balls thrown his way. RB EGeorge a lukewarm play. Bypass teams.

Steelers:
Play all the prime players involved in the passing game, bench the RBs. Defense a risky play.

Line:    Jaguars favored by 3

Records:  Jaguars 0-3 (1-2 ATS), Texans 1-2 (1-2 ATS)

Stats Worth Noting: The teams split last year, both games decided by 3 points or less and won by the visitor.

Game Summary:  The Texans have been pitted against two powerful offenses the last two weeks, so facing the Jaguars represents a break. Still, Jacksonville is better balanced despite being winless and has played relatively tough in all three of its defeats.

Prediction:  JAGUARS, 21-13

Jaguars:
RB FTaylor should do well, with QB MBrunell and WR MHatchette worth consideration. The Jags defense is a good play in larger leagues, too.

Texans:
WR AJohnson had 2 TDs last week and remains a good option, as does WR CBrad-ford. QB DCarr still risky on a weekly basis. Skip the RBs.

Line:  Vikings favored by 3*

Records:   49ers 1-2 (1-1-1 ATS); Vikings 3-0 (3-0 ATS)

Stats Worth Noting: The Vikings have covered in three straight at home against the 49ers, but the last meeting was 1998.

Game Summary: If QB Daunte Culpepper can't play, veteran Gus Frerotte is a capable fill-in. The Vikings are playing well on both sides of the ball, and the 49ers are coming off a sloppy performance at home. I'd like to go with SF, because the 49ers need the game a lot more than Minnesota does. But the con-fident Vikings are the pick at home.

Prediction:  VIKINGS, 28-20

* Estimated spread. Official line unavailable.

49ers:
The offense will perform better - you should feel fine playing all the primary weapons, including either RB (KBarlow, GHearst).

Vikings:
If you own Culpepper, you should have already stashed Frerotte on your roster. RB MWilliams and WR RMoss are sure plays, regardless of who the QB is.

Line:    Rams favored by 10 1/2

Records:  Cardinals 1-2 (1-2 ATS), Rams 1-2 (1-1-1 ATS)

Stats Worth Noting: The visiting team covered in both games last year, although the Rams swept straight-up. The Rams are 2-6 ATS in their last eight as double-digit home favorites.

Game Summary: On paper, the game should be fairly close. But I don't think it will be. Much-maligned, the Rams may come out a little annoyed and take it out on the Cardinals, who are outclassed in terms of personnel.

Prediction:  RAMS, 35-17

Cardinals:
QB JBlake a sneaky good play, except I'm not sure who he'll be throwing to. Rookie WR ABoldin best of a bad/injured lot. RB ESmith just not fantasy-worthy so far.

Rams:
Play everyone, includ-ing RB Lamar Gordon, and watch the feathers fly.

Line:    Chiefs favored by 3

Records:  Chiefs 3-0 (3-0 ATS), Ravens 2-1 (2-1 ATS)

Stats Worth Noting: none

Game Summary:  Classic clash of potent offense against stifling defense. The Chiefs are playing so well, it's tough to picture them losing to anyone, but the Ravens have a defense led by LB Ray Lewis that is likely to be up for the challenge. If Baltimore can run the ball behind red-hot RB Jamal Lewis and control the clock, they can win it.

Prediction:  RAVENS, 23-20

Chiefs:
All the offensive principals are plays, because the team is hot. Go with the defense as well.

Ravens:
Only RB Jamal Lewis is an automatic play, but I still like the defense/ST and TE Todd Heap, too. Skip the rest.

Line:  Raiders favored by 7

Records:   Chargers 0-3 (0-3 ATS), Raiders 1-2 (0-3 ATS)

Stats Worth Noting: The Chargers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 at Oakland, and upset the Raiders outright last season.

Game Summary:  Both teams are playing poorly, but at least the Raiders have a victory and have shown some signs of success. For whatever reason, these two almost always play close games... no reason to believe this one will be any different.

Prediction:  RAIDERS, 24-19

Chargers:
The passing game has been so bad, it should be ignored until it shows signs of a breakthrough. Even WR DBoston a risky play. RB LTomlinson is it.

Raiders:
QB RGannon and WRs JRice and TBrown are OK, but the running game is unreliable. Against this defense, however, go ahead and retain CGarner.

Line:    Jets favored by 3

Records:   Cowboys 1-1 (1-1 ATS), Jets 0-3 (0-2-1 ATS)

Stats Worth Noting: A scheduling oddity has Dallas with two games at the New Jersey Meadowlands sandwiched around a bye. Jets are 4-15 ATS in last 19 Sept. home games.

Game Summary:  The Jets are winless, but played well enough to win at New England except for some problems catching the ball. Dallas upset the Giants, then had a week to ponder it. Mentally, they'll be fresh. Still, the Jets appear to be rounding into form... this measures up as their first win.

Prediction:  JETS, 27-16

Cowboys:
The offense perked up a week ago Monday but still isn't fantasy-worthy, save for WR JGalloway.

Jets:
QB VTestaverde has value in yardage leagues, but the run-ning game is still absent. WRs SMoss, CConway and WChre-bet are all fair plays, as is TE ABecht.

Line:    Broncos favored by 13

Records:   Lions 1-2 (1-2 ATS), Broncos 3-0 (3-0 ATS)

Stats Worth Noting: none

Game Summary:  A lot will depend on the health of the RBs, because without a legit ground game Denver figures to struggle even against the likes of the Lions. Then again, the Broncos defense is playing so well these days it may not matter.

Prediction: BRONCOS, 27-10

Lions:
Don't expect much from anyone.

Broncos:
Just who will get the majority of carries remains to be seen. QB JPlummer not a great choice when asked to carry an offense. Individually, all the receivers are solid plays, as is the defense/ST.

Line:    Panthers favored by 6

Records:  Falcons 1-2 (1-2 ATS), Panthers 2-0 (1-1 ATS)

Stats Worth Noting: The Falcons have won the last five meetings, and swept last season's series by a combined 71-0.

Game Summary:  I'm guessing that this is a big revenge game for the Panthers, who were humiliated twice last season. Without QB Michael Vick, the Falcons simply aren't the same team that went to the playoffs a year ago.

Prediction:  PANTHERS, 20-9

Falcons:
It's my opinion that every Falcon should be bypassed. If you must consider one, it's TE Alge Crumpler.

Panthers:
Expect another huge dose of RB SDavis. The Carolina passing game still isn't worth much. The defense/special teams are a definite play.

Line:    Colts favored by 2

Records:  Colts 3-0 (3-0 ATS), Saints 1-2 (1-2 ATS)

Stats Worth Noting: The Saints have beaten Indy in each of the last three meetings, including a 34-20 win at home in 2001.

Game Summary:  Admittedly, I'm often partial to home underdogs on national TV. The Saints typically respond well to these types of matchups early in seasons, and the Colts don't... although that habit is changing under coach Tony Dungy.

Prediction:  SAINTS, 24-21

Colts:
Play all the key personnel, including the much-improved defense.

Saints:
Look for RB DMcAlis-ter to rebound from an awful performance against the Titans last week. QB ABrooks and WRs JHorn and DStallworth are decent, with Horn overdue for a large effort.

Line:    Packers favored by 4

Records:   Packers 1-2 (1-2 ATS), Bears 0-2 (0-2 ATS)

Stats Worth Noting: The Packers have dominated this rivalry in recent years, with nine straight wins at Chicago, including a 7-2 mark ATS.

Game Summary:  Green Bay has been scary in its inconsistency, and simply looked awful at Arizona last week. But at least the Pack has one good week under its belt. The Bears were thrashed in their opener and beaten at Minnesota the week before the bye. The offense is a mess, the defense only slightly better. Look for QB Brett Favre and company to rebound for Green Bay

Prediction:  PACKERS, 31-16

Packers:
The passing game will get well -- that means QB BFavre, but the WR/TE situation is cluttered. I suggest you give this another week to sort out. The defense has been poor, but isn't a bad play in this matchup.

Bears:
Unless you believe the home-on-Monday-Night thing will work for them, I'd leave all Bears on the bench with the exception of WR MBooker.