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This
is a weekly view of the upcoming games considering the
perspective of the sportsbooks to see how their information
about teams and trends can be relevant to your fantasy
football team. There are probably a few of you who feel
that the gaming industry should give to you for a change.
This view is interesting and different from fantasy football
since it considers the teams and games as a whole first
considering trends and motivations and only later the
players – almost
the exact opposite from when you decide your weekly starting
players.
If you would like a detailed introduction to this
new weekly feature at The Huddle please
click here.
Tennessee (3-1) at New England (2-2)
Vegas Line
Total Points = 40
Predicted Outcome
Total Points =41
NE 21, TEN 20
Trends
| |
|
|
|
TEN |
|
|
NE |
|
| Date |
Away |
Home |
Tot |
Rush |
Pass |
Tot |
Rush |
Pass |
| 12/16/2002 |
NE 7 |
TEN 24 |
365 |
238 |
127 |
176 |
56 |
120 |
Motivation
Vegas thinks the Patriots have enough
to get by the Titans this week. Rumors continue to circulate
that QB Tom Brady
is in far worse shape than the Patriots are willing to
admit. The general public is very aware of all of New England's
injury problems on defense and even QB Tom Brady's shoulder
and elbow injuries. However, some of the Patriots' younger
players are filling in on defense quite nicely. CB Ty
Law and LB Willie McGinest are expected to play.
The Patriots should be motivated after the embarrassing
loss to the Titans on Monday night last year. New England
had a pretty good effort against Washington last week,
but they couldn't overcome their turnovers.
The Titans have their own injury problems. S Tank Williams
has a shoulder separation, DT Albert Haynesworth will miss
this game, and LB Peter Sirmon won't play. The wise guy's
think these losses are just as important as New England's
injuries. Tennessee has won 13 of its last 15 regular season
tests, including a 24-7 home win over the Pats last season.
They have also won six of their last eight on the road.
Cincinnati (1-3) at Buffalo (2-2)
Vegas Line
Total Points = 40
Predicted Outcome
Total Points =38
BUF 21, CIN 17
Trends
| |
|
|
|
CIN |
|
|
BUF |
|
| Date |
Away |
Home |
Tot |
Rush |
Pass |
Tot |
Rush |
Pass |
| 12/29/2002 |
CIN 9 |
BUF 27 |
317 |
84 |
233 |
324 |
99 |
225 |
Motivation
Buffalo LB Takeo Spikes returns to Cincinnati.
Opinion
The handicapper's think this will be a low scoring game.
Bills Coach Greg Williams spent this week in practice trying
to find his offense. Buffalo looked like a Super Bowl
threat the first two weeks of the season after impressive
wins over the Pats and Jags when it scored 69 points. However,
the last two weeks the Bills looked overrated during consecutive
losses to Miami and Philadelphia when they scored a total
of 20 points.
Buffalo's defense is better than it's shown the past two
weeks when the Dolphins and the Eagles pounded the ball
at them. As their free agents (S Lawyer Milloy, LB Takeo
Spikes, DT Sam Adams, etc.) get more comfortable with their
teammates and the system, they should only improve. Buffalo
has outscored it opponents 95-57 and they give up just
14 points per game.
The Bengals are better this year. Twenty-four of their
players from last year's squad are no longer with the team. Of
the 24, only four are playing as regulars in the NFL. This
is a completely different team. Setting aside the disaster
in their first game against the Broncos, the Bengals have
played three pretty good offenses in Cleveland, Oakland,
and Pittsburgh. Against these three teams, they are giving
up just 18 points per game. The Bills are struggling
to run the ball, Cincinnati's weakness, and the Bengals' secondary
should be able to slow down the Bills passing game enough
to keep this game close.
Miami (2-1) at New York Giants (2-1)
Vegas Line
Total Points = 38
Predicted Outcome
Total Points = 37
MIA 20, NYG 17
Trends
No recent regular season meetings between these teams.
Under
is 25 of Miami's last 34 games outside their division.
Under
is 13 of 16 after a Giants bye week. However, over 's
8 of the last 9 when the Giants face the AFC.
Motivation
Both teams are 2-1, tied for the lead in their division,
and coming off a bye week.
Opinion
There's good news and bad news from the Giants camp. They
enjoyed their week off but now they have to return to play
the surging Dolphins. Vegas has noticed that New York is
one of the worst teams in the NFL following a bye, dropping
11 of 15 and losing six of its last seven. Miami has problems
of its own. The Dolphins have lost eight of their last
nine versus NFC competition, including four in a row. The
Giants, on the other hand, have kept it close against clubs
from the AFC-East.
New York's weakness has been their secondary. Miami's
offensive strength has been running the ball. Neither
team matches up really well against the other. This may
explain the sportsbooks' lack of interest in this game. There's
a lot of uncertainty to whether the Dolphins can run Ricky
Williams 30 times against New York's run defense and be
successful. On the other hand, no one around here trusts
that Miami's passing game can take advantage of the Giants' problems
in the secondary. The most likely result is a draw between
the two squads and another close game for New York.
Seattle (3-0) at Green Bay (2-2)
Vegas Line
Total Points = 45
Predicted Outcome
Total Points = 47
SEA 27, GB 20
Trends
No recent regular season meetings between these teams.
Motivation
Seahawks Head Coach Mike Holmgren, defensive
coordinator Ray Rhodes, and QB Matt Hasselbeck return to
Green Bay. Ironically,
the last time Holmgren played the Packers, he beat the
then Ray Rhodes coached team 27-7.
Opinion
The wise guys favor the Seahawks in this
game. Looking
at Green Bay, they really haven't beaten anyone, just the
Bears and the Lions and they've lost to the Cardinals and
the Vikings. Their defense just isn't playing well. The
Bears were able to run on the Packers on Monday night,
something they haven't done so far this season. Chicago
had 181 yards of rushing.
Green Bay begins a tough three game stretch. They have
a short week this week; they then host Kansas City, before
they go on the road to St. Louis.
The Packers running game is they key to this game. The
sportsbooks don't think RB Ahman Green will be able to
run the ball against the Seahawks' defense. When Green
Bay can't run, QB Brett Favre forces the ball to try and
make plays. The problem is that he doesn't have the weapons
he used to. Seattle is living on turnovers; they are number
one in the league in this category. Favre may throw two
or more interceptions in this game, setting up a defensive
touchdown or a very short field for the Seahawks.
Oakland (1-3) at Chicago (0-3)
Vegas Line
Total Points = 42.5
Predicted Outcome
Total Points =37
OAK 21, CHI 16
Trends
No recent regular season meetings between these teams.
Motivation
Oakland comes in on a high after a huge
come from behind victory against the Chargers gave them
new life this season. The
Bears were dreadful again in their loss to the Packers.
Opinion
No love for this game at all in Vegas. The situation
favors the Bears, as the Raiders will expect to come in
and take Chicago to the woodshed like every other team
has this season. You couldn't blame them for looking past
the Bears this week. On the other hand, no handicapper
in his or her right mind is going to put money on Chicago
right now. They're no guarantee to score against anyone. The
sportsbooks think Chicago's best chance in this game is
to establish a running game and keep the Raiders offense
off the field. That may work to a degree, as Oakland was
dreadful against the Chargers rushing attack last Sunday
and Bears RB Anthony Thomas showed something in the game
against the Packers.
New Orleans (1-3) at Carolina (3-0)
Vegas Line
Total Points = 38
Predicted Outcome
Total Points = 30
CAR 20, NO 10
Trends
| |
|
|
|
NO |
|
|
CAR |
|
| Date |
Away |
Home |
Tot |
Rush |
Pass |
Tot |
Rush |
Pass |
| 12/29/2002 |
CAR 10 |
NO 6 |
244 |
125 |
119 |
273 |
85 |
188 |
| 11/10/2002 |
NO 34 |
CAR 24 |
345 |
97 |
248 |
396 |
100 |
296 |
| 12/2/2001 |
CAR 23 |
NO 27 |
432 |
125 |
307 |
150 |
49 |
101 |
| 10/14/2001 |
NO 27 |
CAR 25 |
358 |
198 |
160 |
218 |
34 |
184 |
| 11/12/2000 |
NO 20 |
CAR 10 |
322 |
157 |
165 |
311 |
53 |
258 |
| 10/15/2000 |
CAR 6 |
NO 24 |
397 |
215 |
182 |
141 |
10 |
131 |
Motivation
The Saints just want to win a game and not lose any more
players, while the Panther hope to keep their perfect season
alive against their divisional rivals.
Opinion
New Orleans has played very well in this
series, winning five of the last six games. Of course, they probably didn't
have the injury problems they again face this week.
The handicappers are very leery of this game. The series
history is clearly on the side of New Orleans, and yet
they're in such disarray on both sides of the ball that
it's tempting to look past that history. The Saints have
enough weapons remaining on offense that they could cause
the Panthers trouble, and yet they don't have enough defense
to prevent Carolina from grinding out first downs on the
ground. Time of possession could be very one-sided in
this game. When New Orleans does well, this is a high-scoring
series. When the Panthers win, it's a defensive battle. The
books are expecting a Carolina victory in a low scoring
game.
Minnesota (4-0) at Atlanta (1-3)
Vegas Line
Total Points = 43
Predicted Outcome
Total Points = 44
MIN 31, ATL 13
Trends
| |
|
|
MIN
|
|
|
|
ATL
|
|
|
Date
|
Away
|
Home
|
Tot |
Rush |
Pass |
Tot |
Rush |
Pass |
|
12/1/2002 |
ATL 30
|
MIN 24
|
369 |
139 |
230 |
379 |
227 |
152 |
Motivation
The Vikings are 4-0 and coming off a
big win at home against the 49ers. The Falcons got creamed
again last Sunday and have struggled both offensively and
on the defensive side
of the ball.
Opinion
The handicappers are still licking their
wounds after getting behind Atlanta last week. To their surprise, the
Falcons continued their collapse on both sides of the ball.
The Falcons have scored just two touchdowns in their last
35 possessions. Atlanta, and Las Vegas, just can't wait
to get QB Michael Vick back into the line-up.
The Vikings, on the other hand, may be flat this week. They're
coming off the 28 point drubbing of the 49ers in the Metrodome
and they may be looking past the struggling Falcons. Vegas
thinks the Vikings still have enough on both sides of the
ball to win, but it may be a little closer game than many
think.
Denver (4-0) at Kansas City (4-0)
Vegas Line
Total Points = 45.5
Predicted Outcome
Total Points = 47
KC 27, DEN 20
Trends
| |
|
|
|
DEN
|
|
|
KC
|
|
|
Date
|
Away
|
Home
|
Tot |
Rush |
Pass |
Tot |
Rush |
Pass |
|
12/15/2002 |
KC 24
|
DEN 31
|
482 |
197 |
285 |
494 |
185 |
309 |
|
10/20/2002 |
DEN 37
|
KC 34
|
507 |
141 |
366 |
305 |
162 |
143 |
|
12/16/2001 |
DEN 23
|
KC 26
|
335 |
94 |
241 |
396 |
137 |
259 |
|
10/7/2001 |
KC 6
|
DEN 20
|
300 |
197 |
103 |
297 |
42 |
255 |
|
12/17/2000 |
DEN 7
|
KC 20
|
291 |
66 |
225 |
424 |
264 |
160 |
|
9/24/2000 |
KC 23
|
DEN 22
|
342 |
145 |
197 |
294 |
49 |
245 |
RB Priest Holmes had 151 total yards and three touchdowns
in last year's game at Arrowhead.
RB Clinton Portis had
205 yards and four TDs in the game in Denver.
Motivation
Both teams were in look ahead games last
week and did well to win. The Chiefs got by on another
kick return for a touchdown and Denver slumbered through
their game
against Detroit and had to make some plays on defense to
win that game.
Opinion
Vegas is waiting on word on the health of
Denver RB Clinton Portis. He's clearly better than any of the other backs
on the Denver roster. Anderson is a quality runningback,
but Portis is their only RB with the ability to break a
five or eight yard gain into a 40-yard gain. If he can't
play, the Chiefs have a big advantage.
Teams are now zeroing on Portis. It seems that when you
pop him, something breaks. Vegas is beginning to thinks
Portis may be the next Fred Taylor.
The Chiefs have played the harder schedule, and they've
proven they can win a tough game. Denver haven't really
played a quality opponent yet, and haven't been tested. The
handicappers still question QB Jake Plummer's ability when
he has to win a ball game with his arm.
The handicappers think this will be a very high scoring
game. Both teams have great running games, pretty good
passing attacks, and their defenses may get worn down. Kansas
City's special teams play and home field advantage should
carry them to victory in the end.
Arizona (1-3) at Dallas (2-1)
Vegas Line
Total Points = 37
Predicted Outcome
Total Points =40
DAL 27, ARI 10
Trends
| |
|
|
|
ARI |
|
|
DAL |
|
| Date |
Away |
Home |
Tot |
Rush |
Pass |
Tot |
Rush |
Pass |
| 8/9/2003 |
DAL 0 |
ARI 13 |
191 |
92 |
99 |
115 |
25 |
90 |
| 10/20/2002 |
DAL 6 |
ARI 9 |
380 |
152 |
228 |
342 |
148 |
194 |
| 12/23/2001 |
DAL 10 |
ARI 17 |
209 |
75 |
134 |
343 |
174 |
169 |
| 10/28/2001 |
ARI 3 |
DAL 17 |
292 |
75 |
217 |
225 |
145 |
80 |
| 10/22/2000 |
ARI 7 |
DAL 48 |
276 |
109 |
167 |
347 |
200 |
147 |
| 9/10/2000 |
DAL 31 |
ARI 32 |
322 |
98 |
224 |
330 |
90 |
240 |
Motivation
Arizona RB Emmitt Smith returns to Dallas. It's the first
time the NFL's leading rusher has played in Big D since
he joined the Cardinals. The Cowboys cut him during the
off-season
The Cowboys are coming off a successful tour of New Jersey-
a 35-32 overtime victory against the Giants, a bye week,
and a victory over the Jets 17-6. The Cardinals are coming
off a 37-13 road thumping by the Rams.
Opinion
Vegas thinks this will be a higher scoring
game then most think. Not because either offense is so
good, but because the Cardinals defense is so bad.
In the Cardinals last seven games on the road they have
given up 37 points at St. Louis, 42 at Detroit, 37 at Denver,
30 at St. Louis, 49 at Kansas City, 38 at Philadelphia,
and 38 at San Francisco. Arizona's defense would have gone
alone over the total in six of the seven games. Arizona's
allowed more than 30 points in each of their last seven
road games. Now they're getting banged up. A couple of
starters are questionable; DT Wendell Bryant and LB Raynoch
Thompson may not play.
Arizona's run defense had done a decent job in stopping
the run, but if they do stack the line Dallas will just
throw the football. The Cowboys have a lot of weapons
at wide receiver. WRs Terry Glenn, Antonio Bryant, and
Joey Galloway have been tearing up the league. Galloway
has had back-to-back 100-yard games. The sportsbooks don't
think the general public has quite yet come to the conclusion
that this Cowboy's offense (team) is really very good.
Arizona can move the football, but can't stop turning
it over. They are -10 in turnovers thus far this season. If
they turn it over in Dallas territory, it will be a low
scoring game. If they misplace the ball in their own half,
Dallas will go for the jugular. Given that Arizona did
convert a single third down last week and QB Jeff Blake
only threw for only 88 yards, it's more likely they'll
make their mistakes in their own territory.
San Diego (0-4) at Jacksonville (0-4)
Vegas Line
Total Points = 42
Predicted Outcome
Total Points = 31
JAX 17, SD 14
Trends
No recent regular season meeting between these opponents.
Motivation
How about winning a game? Both teams
are winless and this may be their only chance at a victory
for some time.
Opinion
A great gnashing of teeth at the counter
in this one. No
one's betting this game around town and no one really cares
enough to break down the match-up.
If there is an edge, the handicappers think it belongs
to the Jaguars. Jacksonville has the better defense and
they've gotten WR Jimmy Smith back after a suspension. If
there's one thing Jacksonville does well, it's stop the
opposing running game. They can't put any pressure on
the opposing QB, but in this case, it doesn't really seem
to matter. Even with WR David Boston on the field, the
sportsbooks think the Chargers don't have enough passing
game to prevail. The bookies like Jacksonville to win
a low scoring game.
Washington (3-1) at Philadelphia (1-2)
Vegas Line
Total Points = 40
Predicted Outcome
Total Points = 41
PHI 24, WAS 17
Trends
| |
|
|
|
WAS |
|
|
PHI |
|
| Date |
Away |
Home |
Tot |
Rush |
Pass |
Tot |
Rush |
Pass |
| 12/15/2002 |
WAS 21 |
PHI 34 |
292 |
86 |
206 |
320 |
110 |
210 |
| 9/16/2002 |
PHI 37 |
WAS 7 |
179 |
89 |
90 |
451 |
168 |
283 |
| 12/16/2001 |
PHI 20 |
WAS 6 |
362 |
155 |
207 |
287 |
63 |
224 |
| 11/25/2001 |
WAS 13 |
PHI 3 |
240 |
155 |
85 |
186 |
94 |
92 |
| 11/26/2000 |
PHI 23 |
WAS 20 |
326 |
44 |
282 |
289 |
171 |
118 |
| 10/8/2000 |
WAS 17 |
PHI 14 |
407 |
141 |
266 |
275 |
79 |
196 |
The Eagles have owned this series. They have won seven
of the last eight meetings.
Motivation
Big game within the division for both
teams. Both Washington
and Philadelphia are coming off a victory.
Opinion
Vegas has noted that Washington has not
played well against divisional opponents, while the Eagles
have a great record
against the rest of the NFC East. Under Spurrier, the
Redskins are 1-6 against the NFC East opponents, while
the Eagles, under Head Coach Andy Reid, are 28-2 against
the spread against divisional foes.
Philly needs this game, as they remain on the bottom of
the division. Vegas thinks they should be motivated to
win this game by ten points.
They will get there by attacking the corners of the Redskins
defense any forcing Washington's questionable offensive
line to stay disciplined and pick up the rush. Vegas expects
that the Eagles will blitz on 70-80 % of the Redskins' plays. It
worked last week, so why not keep doing it until someone
stops them? The Washington running game should struggle
against the Eagles defensive tackles. Philadelphia has
one of the better interior defenses in the league.
Detroit (1-3) at San Francisco (1-3)
Vegas Line
Total Points = 41
Predicted Outcome
Total Points =37
SF 20, DET 17
Trends
| |
|
|
|
DET |
|
|
SF |
|
| Date |
Away |
Home |
Tot |
Rush |
Pass |
Tot |
Rush |
Pass |
| 11/4/2001 |
DET 13 |
SF 21 |
131 |
62 |
69 |
427 |
145 |
282 |
Motivation
Lions Head Coach Steve Mariucci returns
to SF. Given
the internal problems and slow start for the 49ers, their
front office would like nothing better than to beat their
former head coach this week.
Opinion
The wise guys think the 49ers are their
own worse enemies. With
their much-publicized problems on the offensive line, you
would think that San Francisco would be running the football. They're
averaging 132 yards per game on the ground, so there's
absolutely no reason to be dropping back to pass. The
handicappers have noticed that every time SF seems to get
into a rhythm on offense, WR Terrell Owens gets frustrated
because he's not getting the ball, and the 49ers start
throwing to appease him.
Vegas were bewildered that the temperamental WR wasn't
suspended this week after another public incident. Every
one of them would have money on the 49ers if they had. They
believe that the other players on the squad would welcome
a coach or someone in the front office if they would just
step-up and take Owens down a notch or two. But, that
didn't happen again this week, and now they're concerned
that frustration is reaching the boiling point in the locker
room and the coaches and front office have lost the rest
of the team.
The wise guys expect Detroit to come out and double Owens. If
the 49ers run the ball, or if Owens doesn't get involved
early, he may be frustrated, pout, and then the 'Niners
will start throwing into coverage instead of taking what
the Lions defense is giving them. If that happens, Detroit
has a good chance of winning this game.
Cleveland (1-3) at Pittsburgh (2-2)
Vegas Line
Total Points = 42
Predicted Outcome
Total Points = 44
PIT 27, CLE 17
Trends
| |
|
|
|
CLE |
|
|
PIT |
|
| Date |
Away |
Home |
Tot |
Rush |
Pass |
Tot |
Rush |
Pass |
| 1/5/2003 |
CLE 33 |
PIT 36 |
447 |
38 |
409 |
432 |
89 |
343 |
| 11/3/2002 |
PIT 23 |
CLE 20 |
193 |
36 |
157 |
391 |
136 |
255 |
| 9/29/2002 |
CLE 13 |
PIT 16 |
245 |
123 |
122 |
358 |
93 |
265 |
| 1/6/2002 |
CLE 7 |
PIT 28 |
173 |
68 |
105 |
376 |
221 |
155 |
| 11/11/2001 |
PIT 15 |
CLE 12 |
187 |
74 |
113 |
428 |
247 |
181 |
| 10/22/2000 |
CLE 0 |
PIT 22 |
104 |
49 |
55 |
248 |
143 |
105 |
| 9/17/2000 |
PIT 20 |
CLE 23 |
377 |
61 |
316 |
346 |
159 |
187 |
PIT has won five of the last six and five straight meetings.
Motivation
Big rivalry game in the AFC North. Neither
the team, nor their fans like the other very much.
Opinion
Everyone around town likes the Steelers
this week. History
in this series is on their side and they're situation is
better than the Browns right now. Pittsburgh is coming
off a loss to the Titans in a game where they led 10-0
while the Browns will be kicking themselves for losing
to the Bengals at home.
Inserting QB Tim Couch didn't spark Cleveland's offense,
so this week's rumor is that the Browns are hoping QB Kelly
Holcombe will be able to play this weekend. That uncertainty,
as well as manner in which Cleveland played last week,
has the bettors swearing off Cleveland. Another interesting
tidbit is the history of the runningbacks in this series. Cleveland's
have done nothing; the Browns got less than 40 yards rushing
in each of their last two match-ups last season, while
the Steelers runningbacks played well. If the Browns can't
run, and with their offensive line they probably won't
be able to, the wise guys think they'll struggle to put
up points in this game.
Indianapolis (4-0) at Tampa Bay (2-1)
Vegas Line
Total Points = 37.5
Predicted Outcome
Total Points =30
TB 17, IND 13
Trends
No recent regular season meetings between these teams.
Motivation
Colts HC Tony Dungy returns to Tampa where he was dumped
after he failed to get the team to the Super Bowl.
Opinion
The Colts have been out-gained on the ground
in three of their four games. They've jumped out to big leads in
two of their games and they still couldn't run. RB Edgerrin
James may not play, but even when he does, he's not that
effective. Indy doesn't have that big back that can pound
away at that defensive line. The wise guys don't expect
that the Colts can run this week.
To make matters worse, Tampa Bay just doesn't give up
passing yards. They've allowed just 106 passing yards
against per game. If the Colts can't run the ball, and
they don't have that big back that's been effective against
the Buc's in the past, they're going to struggle on offense
in this in this game. The handicappers think that this
could be another low scoring, defensive game that might
be settled by a turnover.
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