PREVIEW - WEEK 5 (Oct. 5-6)

Line:    Titans favored by 1 1/2

Records:  Titans 3-1 (3-1 ATS); Patriots 2-2 (2-1-1 ATS)

Stats Worth Noting: The Titans prevailed last season at home, 24-7.

Game Summary: Tennessee QB Steve McNair is playing at his highest level ever. He may be football's most complete QB and the Titans defense is also playing well. The Patriots, as home 'dogs, are tempting. But QB Tom Brady is still battling a bum elbow and the team's running game is anemic.

Prediction:  TITANS, 23-16

Titans:
WR DMason was an afterthought last week, so expect him to rebound with a strong game, at the expense of other targets.

Patriots:
None of the Pats are especially good plays, except K AVinatieri, but QB TBrady worth a shot in larger leagues.

Line:    Bills favored by 8

Records:  Bengals 1-3 (2-2 ATS), Bills 2-2 (2-2 ATS)

Stats Worth Noting: The Bills whipped the Bengals in last year's regular season finale, 27-9.

Game Summary:  It's been my observation that low-level teams have a hard time follow-ing strong efforts with a similar one. Buffalo, on the other hand, has endured back-to-back pathetic offensive performances. If RB Travis Henry returns, as expected, I like the Bills to pull away early. If Henry sits, well, I like Buffalo anyway.

Prediction:  BILLS, 35-13

Bengals:
QB JKitna is fast becoming a reliable fantasy alternative. WR CJohnson is the go-to guy and the big-play man. Ignore RBs BBennett and RJohnson in CDillon's absence.

Bills:
Last week, I said QB DBledsoe likely to rebound, so maybe this week he actually will. WR EMoulds a must, and WR BShaw a reasonable play in deep leagues. Go with the defense as well.

Line:    Even

Records:   Dolphins 2-1 (2-1 ATS), Giants 2-1(2-1 ATS)

Stats Worth Noting: None.

Game Summary: A quality clash of titans (no pun intended), with defense the key for both sides. It's the running of RB Ricky Williams against the downfield passing game of QB Kerry Collins and WR Amani Toomer. At home, the Giants get it done.

Prediction:  GIANTS, 20-14

Dolphins:
RB RWilliams will be used heavily again, with WR CChambers the only other legit option offensively. Miami D usually worth a play.

Giants:
Don't figure on big numbers for the Giants, but it's tough to overlook QB KCollins, RB TBarber or WR AToomer. Play the Giants D/ST.

Line:    Chiefs favored by 3 1/2

Records:  Broncos 4-0 (3-1 ATS); Chiefs 4-0 (4-0 ATS)

Stats Worth Noting: The Chiefs have won 8 of the last 12 meetings at KC, but are 6-6 ATS in that span. At Denver, the Broncos have won three straight.

Game Summary: Something has to give between two unbeaten teams. The status of RB Clinton Portis is big, but not as big as KC's ability to force QB Jake Plummer into just enough mistakes. Host Chiefs keep it goin'.

Prediction:  CHIEFS, 27-20            

Broncos:
Denver's offense has been so solid, you have to keep the principals in your lineup, but skip the D.

Chiefs:
Play everyone who's had a big role in their 4-0 start, because if it ain't broke you should not try to fix it.

Line:    Raiders favored by 4

Records:  Raiders 2-2 (0-4 ATS), Bears 0-3 (0-3 ATS)

Stats Worth Noting: See above -- both teams combined are 0 for 7 ATS.

Game Summary:  The Oakland offense got its act together just in time against San Diego, and the feast should continue against the woe-ful Bears, who simply can't muster enough offense to keep up. The short week won't do Chicago any good, either.

Prediction:  RAIDERS, 30-17

Raiders:
QB RGannon and WRs JRice and TBrown as musts. TE DJolley also a good option. RBs situation more cloudy. Go with CGarner only if you need to.

Bears:
RB AThomas and WR MBooker are it.

Line:  Cowboys favored by 7 1/2

Records:  Cardinals 1-3 (1-3 ATS); Cowboys 2-1 (2-1 ATS)

Stats Worth Noting: The home team has dominated this former division rivalry in recent years, winning four in a row ATS and straight-up.

Game Summary: With all due respect to Cowboys fans, I'm not convinced. The win over the Giants was impressive, but falls under the blind squirrel theorem. And the Jets? Puh-lease. The Cardinals aren't any good, either, but they're well-coached, RB Emmitt Smith will be motivated to have a big day, and the young Cowboys might look ahead to rival Philly next week. Expect a close one.

Prediction:  COWBOYS, 20-17

Cardinals:
Sure, go ahead and give RB ESmith a whirl. QB JBlake and WR ABoldin also.

Cowboys:
This is the week to play RB THambrick, and the improved passing game's WR trio of JGalloway, TGlenn and ABryant are also good plays. Ditto the Dallas D.

Line:    Vikings favored by 4

Records:  Vikings 4-0 (4-0 ATS), Falcons 1-3 (1-3 ATS)

Stats Worth Noting: The Falcons have won the last two meetings in this series, including the 1998 NFC Title Game.

Game Summary:  This is a dangerous stop for the Vikes, because Atlanta should be considered dangerous. Remember, the Falcons were a playoff team last year. Even without QB Michael Vick... nah, forget it. I've fallen into that trap before. This game is in a dome, so it's home away from home for the Vikes.

Prediction:  VIKINGS, 38-24

Vikings:
QB DCulpepper is expected back, but I'd stick with GFrerotte if I were the Vikes, and let the franchise guy get fully healthy. Play just about any Viking you can get your keyboard on.

Falcons:
RBs WDunn and TJDuckett are worthy, as is WR PPrice and TE ACrumpler. Price has to break out at some point.

Line:    Packers favored by 2 1/2

Records:  Seahawks 3-0 (2-1 ATS), Packers 2-2 (2-2 ATS)

Stats Worth Noting: none

Game Summary:  A special game for Seattle coach Mike Holmgren, undoubtedly. The Packers are scary in their erratic play, but it's usually a safe play to take them at home. Coming off a strong performance at Chicago, Green Bay is the play.

Prediction:  PACKERS, 24-20

Seahawks:
Expect a ton of RB Shaun Alexander, with QB MHasselbeck and WRs KRobinson and DJackson also solid choices. The defense/ special teams risky.

Packers:
RB AGreen the only certain play, but I also like QB BFavre and WR DDriver. TE BFranks good in big leagues. Skip the rest.

Line:  Panthers favored by 7

Records:   Saints 1-3 (1-3 ATS), Panthers 3-0 (2-1 ATS)

Stats Worth Noting: The visiting team is 3-1 ATS and straight-up since 2000.

Game Summary: Although these teams appear headed in opposite directions, it was so recent that they were flip-flopped, that I'm going with this one as my upset special... mainly because I don't believe Carolina is capable of exploiting the Saints' main weaknesses. And New Orleans' offensive personnel is arguably better than any the Panthers have faced to date. There's at least one shocker every week... and this is the one.

Prediction:  SAINTS, 23-20

Saints:
Despite the tough site, QB ABrooks, RB DMcAlister and WR JHorn are reasonable plays. I also like the Saints D to rebound from the pathetic effort against Indy.

Panthers:
Defense and a good running game can take you far. Fantasy-wise, though, RB SDavis and the D are it as far as Carolina goes.

Line:    Jaguars favored by 3

Records:   Chargers 0-4 (1-3 ATS), Jaguars 0-4 (1-3 ATS)

Stats Worth Noting: none.

Game Summary:  Like the Broncos-Chiefs game, something has to give (in reverse, of course). On paper, the Chargers are the superior team. Jacksonville's D is unlikely to have an answer for RB LaDainian Tomlinson, and WR David Boston returns, perhaps a more focused receiver. Jax WR Jimmy Smith returns after a 4-game suspension. It remains to be seen what his impact will be.

Prediction: CHARGERS, 17-14

Chargers:
In larger leagues, WR DBoston is a good upside play. RB LTomlinson the only no-brainer.

Jaguars:
Doesn't matter which QB starts, because you should avoid either for now. RB FTaylor and WR JSmith should be good to go.

Line:    Eagles favored by 5

Records:   Redskins 3-1 (1-2-1 ATS), Eagles 1-2 (1-2 ATS)

Stats Worth Noting: The Eagles have won the last three meetings each by two TDs or more, but Washington won at Philly two years ago, 13-3.

Game Summary:  The spread strikes me a high, which means the Skins' aren't getting any more love from bettors than they have from me. Truth is, I don't consider the Eagles as cured of their early-season woes just because they managed to win at Buffalo. Their defense is still short-handed. And they're 0-2 at home. Tough call, so I'll split the difference.

Prediction: EAGLES, 24-20

Redskins:
Only WR LColes is worth a play across the board. WR RGardner an option in larger leagues, as is the Redskins teams.

Eagles:
QB DMcNabb is still on the fence fantasy-wise, although for the first time in my life, I disagree with Rush Limbaugh. RB DStaley and the defense are OK, but I don't recom-mend the receivers.

Line:    49ers favored by 7

Records:  Lions 1-3 (2-2 ATS), 49ers 1-3 (1-2-1 ATS)

Stats Worth Noting: The 49ers have owned this series in recent years, winning the last five meetings both straight-up and ATS.

Game Summary:  This is the second straight tough road stop for the Lions, who haven't won away from Michigan since 2000. The Niners will be highly motivated to turn it around. Expect a blowout in Mariucci Bowl I.

Prediction:  49ERS, 31-10

Lions:
Fuhgetabout it.

49ers:
This much I know -- WR TOwens will get 15 balls thrown his direction. He and QB JGarcia will get it going. Look for more RB KBarlow and a little less RB GHearst. The defense will also rebound.

Line:    Steelers favored by 7

Records:  Browns 1-3 (1-3 ATS), Steelers 2-2 (2-2 ATS)

Stats Worth Noting: Four of the last five meetings have been decided by a field goal, including the last two at Pittsburgh (both last season).

Game Summary:  More often than not, you can throw out the records when these two get together - bigtime rivalry. Both are coming off deeply disappointing losses. Health of QB KHolcomb may be the key for Cleveland. Because of his uncertain status, Pittsburgh is the play here, at home.

Prediction:  STEELERS, 27-14

Browns:
The latest report at this writing is that QB TCouch will start. I'd pass (pun intended), except for the largest leagues. WRs still risky because too many of them. RB WGreen not a good play.

Steelers:
Both RBs, AZereoue and JBettis, are OK starts to go with QB TMaddox and WR HWard. WR PBurress also a go if you can confirm he's playing. I like the Steelers teams this week, too.

Line:    Buccaneers favored by 4 1/2

Records:   Colts 4-0 (4-0 ATS), Bucs 2-1 (2-1 ATS)

Stats Worth Noting: none.

Game Summary:  A lot hinges on Colts RB Edgerrin James, without whom I don't believe Indy can win. The dynamic passing attack will be slowed significant by the Bucs, but the Colts' D might forge the upset if the running game can maintain possession... Ah, but I don't think so. Indy's impressive run ends here in the first Dungy Bowl.

Prediction:  BUCCANEERS, 24-17

Colts:
RB EJames, if he starts, should put up decent numbers. QB PManning and WR MHarrison should never be benched (except for injury).

Buccaneers:
Except for the defense and K MGramatica, there are no auto plays. But QB BJohnson, WR KJohnson and RB MPittman are worthy of consideration.