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Predictions & Projections
By David M. Dorey
 
The Huddle
WEEK 6
October 8, 2003
Season Ticket
Sun 1 PM *TB at WAS Sun 4 PM Sun 8:30 PM Bye Week:
*CAR at IND MIA at JAX *BUF at NYJ SF at SEA Cincinnati
CHI at NO *NYG at NE *PIT at DEN Mon 9 PM Detroit
HOU at TEN OAK at CLE Sun 4 PM *ATL at STL Minnesota
KC at GB PHI at DAL *BAL at ARZ *updated San Diego
   
Kansas City vs Green Bay Sun, Oct 12; 1 PM on CBS at Lambeau Field
  Kansas City Rush Catch Pass
QB Trent Green 0 0 180,1
RB Priest Holmes 110,1 40 0
TE Tony Gonzalez 0 30 0
WR Johnnie Morton 0 40 0
WR Marc Boerigter 0 10 0
WR Eddie Kennison 0 60,1 0
  Green Bay Rush Catch Pass
QB Brett Favre 0 0 250,2
RB Ahman Green 120,1 10 0
RB Tony Fisher 20 20 0
TE Bubba Franks 0 40,1 0
WR Javon Walker 0 40 0
WR Donald Driver 0 100,1 0
WR Robert Ferguson 0 30 0


Game Prediction: KC 20, GB 27

Kansas City Notes

Quarterbacks: Though Kansas City is 5-0, there is a concern about the level of play by Trent Green who has thrown only six touchdowns against six interceptions this season. He only has a 78 QB Rating so far and has been buoyed by the running game, defense and lately Dante' Hall's kick returns. Green only managed to complete 15 of 28 passes last week in Baltimore for only 128 yards. He had two throws - the 20 yard score to Tony Gonzalez and a 28 yard touchdown to Johnnie Morton to save his game from being a horrible outing. This makes two successive weeks that Green has failed to exceed 200 yards passing.

Running backs: Now that Priest Holmes has been deemed healthy again, he ran for 97 yards on 17 carries against Denver last week but only added 14 yards on four catches and did not score. The Denver linebackers were able to keep him contained and the reality is that Holmes only has one 100 yard rushing game so far this season. To his credit, the Chiefs have won and he has faced two tough defenses in BAL and DEN.

Wide Receivers: Still a relative wasteland in fantasy terms. Johnnie Morton had a 28 yard touchdown last week but it was his only catch. Green still prefers Eddie Kennison (2-14) on the rare occasion he throws outside. Dante Hall has been included in the passing game lately and received four passes last week that he turned into three receptions for 17 yards. Marc Boerigter still gets passes but he has not caught any in the past two games.

Tight Ends: The tight end is always a big component in the game plan and last week Tony Gonzalez made a tremendous catch for a touchdown during his three receptions for 46 yards. Jason Dunn is used mainly for giggles and had no catches on his two throws last week. Oddly enough, Gonzalez is mentioned every week by Vermiel as needing more work and yet he has not had more than four passes in any game this season.

Match against the defense: The Packers have only really been bad against the pass when they faced Jeff Blake, otherwise they have been tough. Even though Culpepper burned them for three scores back in the opener, he only had 195 yards passing. In that game, Randy Moss had 150 yards receiving but since then the best receiver against them was Koren Robinson with eight catches for 76 yards. The Packers have allowed each opponent to use their tight end to some degree and Desmond Clark was the best with 63 yards on six catches as the only team that uses a tight end to large extent.

The Packers do give up the run though. In the last two weeks they allowed Shaun Alexander (20-102,1TD) and Anthony Thomas (13-110, 1 TD) to run well and their overall numbers appear good only because they faced Detroit and Arizona that have no rushing game anyway.

Green Bay Notes

Quarterbacks: After a slow start to the season, Brett Favre has warmed up. He no longer throws for big yardage but has not throw an interception in the past two games against five touchdowns. The Packers do not have a deep threat which reflects in Favre's lower yards per completion but he has been accurate and efficient and still mixes his targets well between the wideouts, tight ends and backs.

Running backs: The only clunker this year for Ahman Green was in Arizona, otherwise he has been stellar and comes off a 118 yard, two touchdown effort against the tough Seahawk defense. Before that he had 176 yards and two scores against the Bears. Tony Fisher has become a solid relief player for Green and usually gets four to six touches a game which included a touchdown last week. When you consider the running back as a receiver, William Henderson supplies three or four catches a game and is averaging about ten yards a reception lately. Henderson reduces what Green could do in the passing game, but Green needs the rest.

Wide Receivers: Now that Donald Driver is back, he brings some consistency to the position. Driver had seven catches last week for 72 yards and a score and should continue to improve his numbers. Robert Ferguson has been hampered by his knee and only had one catch for five yards last week and lately has given way to Javon Walker who had only two catches for 15 yards but had six throws to Ferguson's one against Seattle. Now that Driver is back, both are more likely to do less.

Tight Ends: Bubba Franks had three catches for 40 yards last week and three catches for 39 yards and a score the previous week. David Martin is back to the bench now that Wesley Walls is healthy again and Walls only had one catch last week but will be in all two tight end sets which the Packers prefer to use.

Match against the defense: The Chiefs defense is hard to evaluate given that they have faced Houston, Baltimore and San Diego that combined might not equal a good offense. In most games they have been able to get a sizable lead and force their opponent into passing and playing a one-dimensional game which should not happen here.

The Chiefs can still be hurt by the run as long as the game situation allows it to be used. Jamal Lewis (26-115, 1 TD) and Clinton Portis (23-141, 1 TD) have hurt them on the ground the last two games. Against the pass, the Chiefs also have been less impressive against a good passing offense, allowing Maddox to throw for 336 yards and even Jake Plummer had 221 yards in their close tilt. The KC corners have given up big games when they face a good wideout, allowing Andre Johnson ( 7-102), Hines Ward (9-146), Plaxico Burress (7-115) and Rod Smith (8-131) big games.

The KC defense rises to the occasion against inferior teams but has not been able to stop the superstars of their opponents. They have just managed to be "good enough" when combined with Dante Hall's free 7-points gifts and an offense that has been able to come together to get the job done largely thanks to Priest Holmes.

Game Prediction: I like Green Bay in this matchup, playing at home with a top rushing game that the Chiefs will have problems with and enough problems via Bubba Franks and Donald Driver to prevent KC from trying to box the running game. Favre has been efficient and a lack of turnovers will hurt the Chiefs' chances. The packers have been tough on the pass and the Chiefs evidently do not have a lot there anyway. The game will hinge on how well Priest Holmes can get running and if the KC special teams does the unthinkable.

Team Comparisons - Current team rankings (1-32) by position for FF points scored or allowed by position
Rank (1-32) QB RB WR TE PK DEF
KC Scores
28
3
28
8
12
2
GB Allows
23
14
14
9
26
5
KC AP -5 11 -14 1
-14
-3
Rank (1-32) QB RB WR TE AP DEF
GB Scores
23
1
23
11
20
10
KC Allows
15
16
10
24
6
12
GB AP -8 15 -13 13
-14
2
Offensive ranks - lower = gains more points, Defensive Ranks lower = allows less points

KC GB 2003 Game Averages GB KC
Gains Allows QB's Gains Allows
191
227
Pass yards
201
223
1.2
0.8
Pass TDs
1.8
1.2
1.0
11.4
Interceptions
1.4
2.0
6
17
Rush yards
0
13
0.0
0.4
Rush TDs
0.0
0.0
----
----
RB's
----
----
123
89
Rush yards
134
98
1.6
0.4
Rush TDs
1.6
0.4
52
30
Receive yards
51
50
0.0
0.4
Receive TD's
0.6
0.0
----
----
WR's
----
----
108
165
Receive yards
117
135
0.6
0.4
Receive TD's
0.8
0.8
----
----
TE's
----
----
31
33
Receive yards
33
34
0.6
0.0
Receive TD's
0.4
0.4
----
----
PK's
----
----
1.2
2.4
Field Goals
1.0
1.2
4.0
1.6
Extra Points
3.6
1.8
----
----
DEF/ST
----
----
1.0
0.6
Fumbles
0.8
0.4
2.0
1.4
Interceptions
1.4
1.0
1.0
0.0
Touchdowns
0.2
0.2
2.2
0.4
Sacks
2.0
1.6
0.0
0.0
Safeties
0.0
0.0
Chiefs (5-0)
Score Opp.
27-14 SD
41-20 PIT
42-14 @HOU
17-10 @BAL
24-23 DEN
Week 6 @GB
Week 7 @OAK
Week 8 BUF
Week 9 BYE
Week 10 CLE
Week 11 @CIN
Week 12 OAK
Week 13 @SD
Week 14 @DEN
Week 15 DET
Week 16 @MIN
Week 17 CHI
Packers (3-2)
Score Opp.
25-30 MIN
31-6 DET
13-20 @ARZ
38-23 @CHI
35-13 SEA
Week 6 KC
Week 7 @STL
Week 8 BYE
Week 9 @MIN
Week 10 PHI
Week 11 @TB
Week 12 SF
Week 13 @DET
Week 14 CHI
Week 15 @SD
Week 16 @OAK
Week 17 DEN

* Fantasy point rankings calculated using standard Huddle fantasy points