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Predictions & Projections
By David M. Dorey
 
The Huddle
WEEK 6
October 8, 2003
Season Ticket
Sun 1 PM *TB at WAS Sun 4 PM Sun 8:30 PM Bye Week:
*CAR at IND MIA at JAX *BUF at NYJ SF at SEA Cincinnati
CHI at NO *NYG at NE *PIT at DEN Mon 9 PM Detroit
HOU at TEN OAK at CLE Sun 4 PM *ATL at STL Minnesota
KC at GB PHI at DAL *BAL at ARZ *updated San Diego
   
San Francisco vs Seattle Sun, Oct 12; 8:30 PM on ESPN at Seahawks Stadium
  San Francisco Rush Catch Pass
QB Jeff Garcia 30 0 200,1
RB Garrison Hearst 70,1 30 0
RB Kevan Barlow 30 0 0
TE Jed Weaver 0 10 0
WR Terrell Owens 0 80 0
WR Tai Streets 0 40 0
WR Cedrick Wilson 0 30,1 0
  Seattle Rush Catch Pass
QB Matt Hasselbeck 10 0 280,2
RB Shaun Alexander 80,1 10 0
TE Ituli Mili 0 20 0
WR Darrell Jackson 0 90,1 0
WR Bobby Engram 0 40 0
WR Koren Robinson 0 100,1 0

Game Prediction: SF 14, SEA 30

San Francisco Notes

Quarterbacks: The Lions allowed Jeff Garcia with what he needed badly - a win. But in the game against one of the worst secondaries in the NFL, Garcia still only managed 192 yards passing with two touchdowns. The only team that did worse against the Lions was Green Bay when all their receivers were injured. Garcia still languishes around a 50% pass completion ratio and took off running eleven times last week for a 35 yard total on the ground including one rushing score. Garcia's fantasy points looked pretty good last week but they should have. At least the win quieted the titters through the stands about Tim Rattay and since he did throw a score to Owens, no one was vocal this week about him.

Running backs: The 49ers have a problem here and they know. And they state they are going to commit to it and still do not get good results. Last week Garrison Hearst had 19 rushes for 74 yards while Kevan Barlow fell back to only seven carries for 24 yards - against the Lions in a game they should have done better. Other than a long run propping up Hearst's 89 yards in St. Louis, the 74 yards rushing was the best by a 49er back this season. Last week they only threw three completions to the running backs though that should increase this week.

Wide Receivers: Terrell Owens was quiet this week since he had a touchdown against Detroit, but he only had seven passes to him against less than average cornerbacks. Tai Streets had four catches for 21 yards but has disappeared this year when the pass defense gets tough and Cedrick Wilson becomes a more used target. Wilson only had one pass he did not catch last week but had seven balls against Street's five the previous week in Minnesota. The win and the touchdown to Owens seems to have at least delayed the frustration, but the wideouts continue to fall short as San Francisco talks about a mythical long game while dumping off short passes.

Tight Ends: Just in case you were thinking that Jed Weaver was a worthy fantasy tight end, Aaron Walker is now getting as much attention - which is not much - and caught a touchdown last week. The tight ends only had two catches last week and rarely get more than four or five in any given week.

Match against the defense: The Seattle defense has been great against the pass, particularly at home this season and only Favre has more than one scoring pass in a game against them this season. Marc Bulger only managed 226 yards and one score and Aaron Brooks had 274 and a touchdown though he needed to throw 47 passes to get there. Garcia has not thrown more than 35 passes a game this year. The best receiver against Seattle has been Donte' Stallworth with 101 yards in week one but the Seahawks have been able to hold down notable receivers like Torry Holt (5-68), Isaac Bruce (5-69), Donald Driver (7-72), Joe Horn (7-83) and even the infamous Anquan Boldin (8-62).

Last year Garcia only managed 202 and 164 yards against Seattle though Owens did catch two scores in their first meeting. He only had 45 yards in their second.

One problem the Seahawks had last week was the absence of DT Norman Hand that allowed the Packers to run better. CB Marcus Trufant hurt his shoulder and FS Ken Hamlin sprained his ankle but both should be ready for this game.

While Ahman Green ran well last week, remember that Hand was out and that the Packers, by virtue of their score in the game, were able to just run the ball in the second half. This is the rushing defense that held McAllister to 99 yards on 22 carries, Emmitt Smith to 54 yards and knocked Marshall Faulk out of the game when he only had 15 carries for 31 yards. Seattle can stop the run and if they get the lead, they make that moot anyway.

Seattle Notes

Quarterbacks: After throwing for two scores in each of his first three games, Matt Hasselbeck cooled in Green Bay and only had 225 yards with no scores. It was not a good day and not indicative of what Hasselbeck can do since the Packers got the lead early (and often) and forced the Seahawks from the game plan.

Running backs: Shaun Alexander ran for 102 yards on 20 carries last Sunday but the game situation took him out of the equation. After two sub-60 yard games, Alexander got back into the 100 club for the second time this year and there is reason to expect more good things for him. RT Chris Terry comes off a four game suspension and gives Alexander that wonderful set of bookend tackles with Walter Jones. It will make a difference.

Wide Receivers: The Seahawks needed to throw last week but were unable to generate enough offense to matter in the game that got away and stayed away. Koren Robinson (8-73) had 13 throws and Darrell Jackson (4-58) fared no better. The Packers secondary was able to drop back last week and Hasselbeck ended up using Bobby Engram (3-35) trying to move the ball. It was an uncharacteristic road game.

Tight Ends: Not much here either. Ituli Mili had two catches for 34 yards but only had three passes in the game which is his standard. Jerramy Stevens never had a pass which likely reflects the previous week when he had three and was unable to make any catches.

Match against the defense: The 49er secondary can be beaten, shown by Gus Frerotte (267, 4 TDs), Kelly Holcomb (222, 2 TDs) and Marc Bulger (236, 2 TDs). If you think the 49ers are worried about Seattle, figure in that last year Hasselbeck only played once against them and threw for 427 yards and three touchdowns. Robinson had 95 yards and one score in that game while Jackson had 114 yards and two scores. The 49er defense has faced Detroit and Chicago to keep their numbers respectable, but allowed Randy Moss, Kevin Johnson, Andre Davis and Torry Holt to make them look bad.

Where the 49ers have shined defensively has been against the run and Olandis Gary's 64 yards last week was the best any runner has done against them, including Marshall Faulk (18-57) and Moe Williams (13-43). Problem here is that the 49ers cannot allow the score to get away from them and allow the Seahawks to freely choose from the run or pass.

Game Prediction: The Seahawks come off a bad loss on the road but it was not a divisional game as this one is. The 49ers come off a win, which at 2-3 is a good thing but there was not enough in that game to suggest that they have cured their running problems or passing woes.

What will happen in this game are points. Last year the two meetings produced 49 and 55 points and the main question is if San Francisco can join in the scoring. Look for Alexander to have a decent but not huge game since his returning RT Terry is balanced by a good rush defense. Hasselbeck should return to multiple scores again which will be shared by Robinson and Jackson against the suspect secondary of San Francisco. Until the 49ers can prove to have a passing game outside of Owens, look for the advantage to go to the Seahawks in the game with a more balanced attack and facing a more one-dimensional attack. Seattle will be looking to go after Garcia in the game.

Team Comparisons - Current team rankings (1-32) by position for FF points scored or allowed by position
Rank (1-32) QB RB WR TE PK DEF
SF Scores
4
18
12
22
7
6
SEA Allows
19
19
19
12
1
3
SF AP 15 1 7 -10
-6
-3
Rank (1-32) QB RB WR TE PK DEF
SEA Scores
15
14
14
28
10
1
SF Allows
18
5
26
22
2
13
SEA AP 3 -9 12 -6
-8
12
Offensive ranks - lower = gains more points, Defensive Ranks lower = allows less points
AP = Advantage Points
SF SEA 2003 Game Averages SEA SF
Gains Allows QB's Gains Allows
219
223
Pass yards
198
204
1.4
1.0
Pass TDs
1.3
2.0
1.4
1.8
Interceptions
0.8
1.2
28
10
Rush yards
12
4
0.4
0.3
Rush TDs
0.3
0.0
----
----
RB's
----
----
104
96
Rush yards
113
68
0.4
0.8
Rush TDs
0.8
0.6
40
26
Receive yards
16
27
0.2
0.3
Receive TD's
0.3
0.0
----
----
WR's
----
----
157
158
Receive yards
163
146
1.2
0.8
Receive TD's
1.0
1.6
----
----
TE's
----
----
22
39
Receive yards
20
31
0.2
0.0
Receive TD's
0.0
0.4
0
----
PK's
0
----
2.2
0.8
Field Goals
1.8
0.6
2.4
2.0
Extra Points
2.8
2.6
----
----
DEF/ST
----
----
1.4
0.3
Fumbles
1.5
0.2
1.2
0.5
Interceptions
1.8
1.4
0.2
0.0
Touchdowns
1.3
0.2
3.0
2.5
Sacks
0.8
1.6
0.0
0.0
Safeties
0.0
0.0
49ers (2-3)
Score Opp.
49-7 CHI
24-27 @STL
12-13 CLE
7-35 @MIN
24-17 DET
Week 6 @SEA
Week 7 TB
Week 8 @ARZ
Week 9 STL
Week 10 BYE
Week 11 PIT
Week 12 @GB
Week 13 @BAL
Week 14 ARZ
Week 15 @CIN
Week 16 @PHI
Week 17 SEA
Seahawks (3-1)
Score Opp.
27-10 NO
38-0 @ARZ
24-23 STL
Week 4 BYE
13-35 @GB
Week 6 SF
Week 7 CHI
Week 8 @CIN
Week 9 PIT
Week 10 @WAS
Week 11 DET
Week 12 @BAL
Week 13 CLE
Week 14 @MIN
Week 15 @STL
Week 16 ARZ
Week 17 @SF

* Fantasy point rankings calculated using standard Huddle fantasy points