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Predictions & Projections
By David M. Dorey
 
The Huddle
WEEK 7
October 15, 2003
Season Ticket
Sun 1 PM TEN at CAR Sun 4 PM Mon 9 PM Bye Week:
*BAL at CIN *NE at MIA *WAS at BUF KC at OAK Arizona
DAL at DET *NO at ATL *CHI at SEA   Indianapolis
*DEN at MIN *PHI at NYG NYJ at HOU Times EST Jacksonville
GB at STL *SD at CLE *TB at SF *updated Pittsburgh
   
Dallas vs Detroit Sun, Oct 19; 1 PM on FOX at Ford Field
  Dallas Rush Catch Pass
QB Quincy Carter 20 0 240,2
RB Richie Anderson 10 20 0
RB Troy Hambrick 70 0 0
TE Dan Campbell 0 10 0
WR Joey Galloway 0 80,1 0
WR Terry Glenn 0 70,1 0
WR Antonio Bryant 0 60 0
  Detroit Rush Catch Pass
QB Joey Harrington 10 0 150,1
RB Shawn Bryson 40 10 0
RB Olandis Gary 30 10 0
TE Mikhael Ricks 0 50,1 0
WR Bill Schroeder 0 40 0
WR Az-Zahir Hakim 0 30 0
WR Shawn Jefferson 0 10 0

Game Prediction: DAL 20, DET 7

Dallas Notes

Quarterbacks: Quincy Carter comes off his worst game this season, throwing for only 146 yards and no touchdowns against one interception. That still ranks the game as one of his better ones compared to last season. With the receivers covered, Carter reverted to running again, logging 31 yards on seven scrambles.

Running backs: While he scored a critical touchdown, Troy Hambrick was held to only 46 yards on 18 carries for a paltry 2.6 yard per carry average and Aveion Cason added seven runs for 31 yards. The Eagles had played tough against the run and last week was no different. They can't all be Jets.

Wide Receivers: The new "Big 3" in Dallas all contributed about the same yardage - Terry Glenn had five catches for 41 yards, Joey Galloway had two receptions for 56 yards and Antonio Bryant only managed to snare one pass but it was for 49 yards. Galloway had two drops and they cannot all be the Giants.

Tight Ends: Dan Campbell only had one catch and Tony McGee missed his one pass. Not a factor.

Match against the defense: They cannot all be the Jets or the Giants, but this week they can be the Lions.

Troy Hambrick should find some room to run against a team that has allowed opponents to crest 100 yards on the ground every week except, well - you know. Emmitt Smith and the Cardinals.

In a similar vein, the Lions secondary has been kind to passers, allowing every team to score with the pass at least once and as many as three times. Carter should follow the pack but not lead it and the fact that both flankers and split ends have done well should bode well for the Big 3 who just have to decide how to divvy up the yardage.

Detroit Notes

Quarterbacks: Joey Harrington was already on a downward slant this season after the big opening day win, and now the loss of Charles Rogers removes his favorite target. Last year was a disaster with only Schroeder and Hakim (when they were healthy) and now Harrington finds himself back to the same spot he started last year. No big running game and questionable wideouts.

Running backs: Just when it appears that Shawn Bryson is the starting running back, Mariucci swaps over and uses Olandis Gary. Bryson and Gary both have one touchdown this season and neither are a reliable source for fantasy points.

Wide Receivers: Without Charles Rogers, Bill Schroeder and Az-Zahir Hakim must step and fill the void and will be assisted by Shawn Jefferson and Scotty Anderson as the game slowly becomes more out of hand. None of those receivers have had more than 54 yards in a game this season.

Tight Ends: Mikhael Ricks has made up for previous bad plays and with Rogers out becomes more important. He had four catches for 76 yards and one score against the 49ers which was actually the biggest day of any Lion receiver this year.

Match against the defense: Since Detroit has the lowest ranked quarterback in fantasy points and is facing a Dallas defense that is now in the top ten in most categories, chances are good that the week off for Harrington means that he heals up in time to get banged around this week. The absence of Rogers poses far more problems for Detroit than Dallas.

Whether it is Bryson or Gary, neither are likely to have a big game since Parcells will be bringing the heat every play anyway.

Game Prediction: The Cowboys are due to cool off, but against a struggling team like the Lions that just lost their one prized offensive weapon and are weak on defense anyway, the Cowboys will rise to a shocking 5-1 this week while the Lions fall to a "eh - so what" 1-5 mark.

Team Comparisons - Current team rankings (1-32) by position for FF points scored or allowed by position
Rank (1-32) QB RB WR TE PK DEF
DAL Scores
13
13
14
29
14
9
DET Allows
22
22
22
12
24
13
DAL AP 9 9 8 -17 10 4
Rank (1-32) QB RB WR TE PK DEF
DET Scores
32
13
29
30
14
8
DAL Allows
10
10
4
23
12
11
DET AP -22 -3 -25 -7 -2 3
Offensive ranks - lower = gains more points, Defensive Ranks lower = allows less points
AP = Advantage Points, the net difference between a positional rank gained or allowed by the teams.
DAL DET 2003 Game Averages DET DAL
Gains Allows QB's Gains Allows
235
251
Pass yards
204
192
0.8
2.2
Pass TDs
1.4
1.4
1.0
0.6
Interceptions
1.6
1.0
13
21
Rush yards
6
1
0.2
0.6
Rush TDs
0.0
0.2
----
----
RB's
----
----
112
105
Rush yards
78
70
0.6
0.2
Rush TDs
0.4
0.4
38
35
Receive yards
47
38
0.0
0.2
Receive TD's
0.2
0.4
----
----
WR's
----
----
175
170
Receive yards
111
122
0.6
1.2
Receive TD's
1.0
0.6
----
----
TE's
----
----
22
45
Receive yards
47
31
0.0
0.6
Receive TD's
0.2
0.4
----
----
PK's
----
----
1.6
1.2
Field Goals
1.2
1.6
2.8
3.0
Extra Points
2.4
1.6
----
----
DEF/ST
----
----
0.8
0.0
Fumbles
0.6
0.6
1.0
1.6
Interceptions
1.0
0.6
0.4
0.2
Touchdowns
0.4
0.2
2.0
0.8
Sacks
1.8
2.2
0.4
0.0
Safeties
0.0
0.0
Cowboys (4-1)
Score Opp.
13-27 ATL
35-32 @NYG
Week 3 BYE
17-6 @NYJ
24-7 ARZ
23-21 PHI
Week 7 @DET
Week 8 @TB
Week 9 WAS
Week 10 BUF
Week 11 @NE
Week 12 CAR
Week 13 MIA
Week 14 @PHI
Week 15 @WAS
Week 16 NYG
Week 17 @NO
Lions(1-4)
Score Opp.
42-24 ARZ
6-31 @GB
13-23 MIN
16-20 @DEN
17-24 @SF
Week 6 BYE
Week 7 DAL
Week 8 @CHI
Week 9 OAK
Week 10 CHI
Week 11 @SEA
Week 12 @MIN
Week 13 GB
Week 14 SD
Week 15 @KC
Week 16 @CAR
Week 17 STL

* Fantasy point rankings calculated using standard Huddle fantasy points