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Predictions & Projections
By David M. Dorey
 
The Huddle
WEEK 7
October 15, 2003
Season Ticket
Sun 1 PM TEN at CAR Sun 4 PM Mon 9 PM Bye Week:
*BAL at CIN *NE at MIA *WAS at BUF KC at OAK Arizona
DAL at DET *NO at ATL *CHI at SEA   Indianapolis
*DEN at MIN *PHI at NYG NYJ at HOU Times EST Jacksonville
GB at STL *SD at CLE *TB at SF *updated Pittsburgh
   
Kansas City vs Oakland Mon, Oct 20; 9 PM on ABC at Network Associates Coliseum
  Kansas City Rush Catch Pass
QB Trent Green 0 0 230,1
RB Priest Holmes 100,2 70 0
TE Tony Gonzalez 0 50,1 0
WR Johnnie Morton 0 40 0
WR Dante Hall 0 30 0
WR Eddie Kennison 0 30 0
  Oakland Rush Catch Pass
QB Rich Gannon 0 0 200,1
RB Charlie Garner 70 50 0
RB Justin Fargas 40 0 0
TE Doug Jolley 0 30,1 0
TE Teyo Johnson 0 20 0
WR Tim Brown 0 40 0
WR Ronald Curry 0 10 0
WR Jerry Rice 0 40 0

Game Prediction: KC 27, OAK 16

Chiefs Notes

Quarterbacks: Evidently the Chiefs do have an actual passing game. Trent Green comes off his best game as a Chief, throwing for 400 yards and three touchdowns against the Packers with no interceptions. After sub-par games against the tough secondaries of Baltimore and Denver, Green put together a show using wide receivers much to the dismay of Packers fans in attendance.

Running backs: Priest Holmes finally scored a touchdown after being blanked the past two games. The Packers were intent on keeping Holmes bottled up and Holmes only had 40 yards during regulation but gained another 41 yards on nine consecutive carries in overtime which led to a missed field goal. Holmes tacked on 59 yards with six receptions.

Wide Receivers: It's party time! Johnnie Morton gained 109 yards - in ONE game - and scored while Eddie Kennison had 57 yards - in ONE game - and also scored the game winning 51 yard touchdown. Okay, so he only had six yards on one catch before that but any game that features 201 yards and two scores by KC wideouts is a cause for celebration. Dante Hall is being more heavily used in the passing game as well, recording five catches on his seven throws for 38 yards. Marc Boerigter had his third catch of the season for seven yards.

Tight Ends: After weeks of promising to involve Tony Gonzalez more, the Chiefs held true as Gonzo led all tight ends last Sunday with four catches for 121 yards and one touchdown. It was his first 100 yard game in the past year.

Match against the defense: The Raider defense has been allowing teams to run so easily, that it has made their pass defense look better than it really is. Oakland has allowed a 100 yard rusher the past three games and that includes William Green and Anthony Thomas. Last year Holmes had 184 total yards against Oakland but was injured in the final game of the season when they met last.

When they played the run tough at home, Jon Kitna threw for 303 yards against them. The Raider defense is starting to resemble an aging gunfighter coming back to town armed with little more than nerf darts.

Holmes should have a very nice game, both running and catching and just when defenses think he is all that KC offers, Trent Green, Tony Gonzalez and even Johnnie Morton go off the week before. Even during the championship season last year, KC was able to beat the Raiders 20-10 when they were still healthy in week 8. The absence of Romanowski should make Gonzalez's job that much easier.

Raider Notes

Quarterbacks: Other than about 20 sterling minutes against the Chargers, Rich Gannon continues to be mired in the ineptitude that is the Oakland Raiders. Against Cleveland, Gannon only had 165 yards passing and one touchdown which was even less than the 183 yards the previous week against the Bears. He is trying to go to war with the original cast from "Cocoon" and the results are predictable. Last week his best receiver was Charlie Garner who had nine passes delivered with the line "here - quick - aaaaa!".

Running backs: While Charlie Garner ran well against Chicago, in Cleveland he could only muster 28 yards on nine carries but added the nine catches for 51 yards which made him the most productive player on the offense. The Raiders are starting to see what Justin Fargas has to offer, giving him six carries for 33 yards and scaling back Tyrone Wheatley to only three carries for 15 yards. The Raiders likely will miss LG Frank Middleton (quad) and Mo Collins (knee) this week which does not bode well, though RT Lincoln Kennedy may be back.

Wide Receivers: Just pathetic really. The lead receiver with two catches was Alvis Whitted while Tim Brown (2-14) and Jerry Rice (2-19) could not handle a decent Cleveland secondary. As was shown in the Superbowl last year, corners are now playing them closer, bumping them and failing to show the proper respect to two of the NFL's greatest receivers of the 90's. Jerry Porter could be back this week and I will update if that happens.

Tight Ends: Much like trying out Fargas in the running game, the Raiders turned to Teyo Johnson who had three catches for 21 yards and the lone Oakland touchdown. This is the Raider's attempt to dull the impact of Doug Jolley (3-20) since he had been one of the top receiving tight ends this season. One note - Jolley only had two touchdowns last season and both came against the Chiefs.

Match against the defense: If you want a throwback thought to boggle the mind, last year Tim Brown had 13 catches for 144 yards against the Chiefs. Though four different receivers have logged 100 yard games against the Chiefs this year, almost all the yards came in trash time and by offenses that are clicking far better than the Raiders.

Oakland knows that it must establish the run if only to reduce the clock time the Chiefs get. Charlie Garner had 135 rushing yards against the Chiefs in week 17 last year but that is highly unlikely to repeat. The Raiders are still tinkering with the attack and will be looking to use all three backs in the game, primarily with Garner but also adding Fargas to the mix hoping to stay in the game. The Chiefs biggest liability is against the run and Garner, Fargas and Wheatley offer three different types to use.

Gannon will be forced to throw later in the game, but the aggressive blitzes by the Chiefs should mostly benefit Garner on more dump off passes.

Game Prediction: The undefeated Chiefs head into Oakland to face a team that has only two wins, at home, against the Bengals and Chargers who almost beat them. Cincinnati lost Dillon in their game to injury and still was able to pass. The Chargers Tomlinson almost single-handedly won their game.

Like the Jets last week, the Raiders are due for a game to stand up and fight back. They'll likely have to wait until after the bye week in Detroit.

Consider too that the last time they played was week 17 of last season when the Raiders bounced the Chiefs 24-0 when Holmes was out and the Kansas City season was over. They will remember that. The Raiders are again committing not only a tremendous amount of penalties, but managing to time them when they hurt the worst. Gannon is clearly frustrated to the point of being flustered. And the Kansas City defense is far better than last year. Plus Dante Hall has gone a whole game without a touchdown.

Oakland is starting to hate these Monday night affairs.

Team Comparisons - Current team rankings (1-32) by position for FF points scored or allowed by position
Rank (1-32) QB RB WR TE PK DEF
KC Scores
14
2
21
2
9
1
OAK Allows
19
27
20
19
28
19
KC AP 5 25 -1 17 19 18
Rank (1-32) QB RB WR TE PK DEF
OAK Scores
29
17
24
9
7
23
KC Allows
17
26
8
27
8
6
OAK AP -12 9 -16 18 1 -17
Offensive ranks - lower = gains more points, Defensive Ranks lower = allows less points
AP = Advantage Points, the net difference between a positional rank gained or allowed by the teams.
KC OAK 2003 Game Averages OAK KC
Gains Allows QB's Gains Allows
226
207
Pass yards
208
232
1.5
1.2
Pass TDs
1.0
1.3
0.8
1.0
Interceptions
0.7
1.8
6
20
Rush yards
3
11
0.0
0.2
Rush TDs
0.0
0.0
----
----
RB's
----
----
116
137
Rush yards
82
112
1.5
1.0
Rush TDs
0.7
0.7
55
22
Receive yards
44
55
0.0
0.0
Receive TD's
0.2
0.2
----
----
WR's
----
----
126
154
Receive yards
123
134
0.8
0.8
Receive TD's
0.5
0.7
----
----
TE's
----
----
46
31
Receive yards
41
39
0.7
0.3
Receive TD's
0.3
0.5
----
----
PK's
----
----
1.3
2.2
Field Goals
2.2
1.3
4.2
2.5
Extra Points
1.8
2.2
----
----
DEF/ST
----
----
1.0
0.3
Fumbles
0.7
0.3
1.8
0.7
Interceptions
1.0
0.8
1.0
0.7
Touchdowns
0.2
0.2
2.3
1.7
Sacks
1.5
1.3
0.0
0.0
Safeties
0.0
0.0
Chiefs (6-0)
Score Opp.
27-14 SD
41-20 PIT
42-14 @HOU
17-10 @BAL
24-23 DEN
40-34 @GB
Week 7 @OAK
Week 8 BUF
Week 9 BYE
Week 10 CLE
Week 11 @CIN
Week 12 OAK
Week 13 @SD
Week 14 @DEN
Week 15 DET
Week 16 @MIN
Week 17 CHI
Raiders (2-4)
Score Opp.
20-25 @TEN
23-20 CIN
10-31 @DEN
34-31 SD
21-24 @CHI
7-13 @CLE
Week 7 KC
Week 8 BYE
Week 9 @DET
Week 10 NYJ
Week 11 MIN
Week 12 @KC
Week 13 DEN
Week 14 @PIT
Week 15 BAL
Week 16 GB
Week 17 @SD

* Fantasy point rankings calculated using standard Huddle fantasy points