VOTED #1 FANTASY FOOTBALL SITE
1998, 1999, 2000, 2001 & 2002
PRIORITY NEWS   MESSAGE BOARDS JOIN   
HOME ARTICLES STATISTICS WEEKLY FEATURES TEAM LINKS NFL RESOURCES  
Predictions & Projections
By David M. Dorey
 
The Huddle
WEEK 7
October 15, 2003
Season Ticket
Sun 1 PM TEN at CAR Sun 4 PM Mon 9 PM Bye Week:
*BAL at CIN *NE at MIA *WAS at BUF KC at OAK Arizona
DAL at DET *NO at ATL *CHI at SEA   Indianapolis
*DEN at MIN *PHI at NYG NYJ at HOU Times EST Jacksonville
GB at STL *SD at CLE *TB at SF *updated Pittsburgh
   
New England vs Miami Sun, Oct 19; 1 PM on CBS at Pro Player Stadium
  New England Rush Catch Pass
QB Tom Brady 0 0 230,2
RB Kevin Faulk 30 50 0
RB Mike Cloud 20 0 0
RB Antowain Smith 20 10 0
TE Christian Fauria 0 20,1 0
WR Troy Brown 0 50 0
WR Deion Branch Q Q Q
WR David Patten 0 60,1 0
  Miami Rush Catch Pass
QB Jay Fielder 0 0 180,1
RB Ricky Williams 110,2 30 0
TE Randy McMichael 0 30 0
WR Chris Chambers 0 50,1 0
WR Derrius Thompson 0 20 0
WR James McKnight 0 30 0

Game Prediction: NE 14, MIA 24

Patriot Notes

Update: Since Larry Centers is out and Antowain Smith's shoulder is still not 100%, I am increasing the numbers for Kevin Faulk who will be used more in the passing scheme. Deion Branch is still considered questionable for the game.

Quarterbacks: While Tom Brady ended with an 8 of 21 for 112 yards game against the Giants, that terrible outing covered up a first half in which Brady only completed one pass of ten throws for a whopping seven yards. He was good at spreading the ball around, but typically most quarterbacks try to hit six different receivers more than just once. Only David Patten had multiple catches and the only passing score in the game.

Running backs: With Antowain Smith out for the game, the big chance for Mike Cloud did yield a touchdown but only 23 yards on nine carries. Instead, Kevin Faulk was deemed not too questionable to play and ended up with a career best 87 yards rushing on 14 carries. The Patriots still have no primary back and yet since they are still winning and get enough combined effort from the position, there is no reason to have a primary back. Smith should be back this week to water down the individual numbers.

Wide Receivers: Last week was a horrible game for the wideouts and David Patten's 39 yard reception accounted for over 30% of all passing yards. All other receivers had one catch though Bethel Johnson had five throws. Not unlike the rushing game, the Patriots like to spread out the yardage among receivers but unlike the rushing game there are not many scores to distribute.

Tight Ends: Christian Fauria still had one catch for seven yards which was the entirety of the first half production from Brady. He only had two throws.

Match against the defense: The Patriot offense relies on the defense to get the ball back with good field position so that the offense does not have far to go. That may not happen in this game very often.

The running back committee is up against one of the toughest defenses in the league as a visitor, so not much is to be expected there. The last rusher in Miami was Travis Henry who gained seven yards on five carries. Do not count on any one of them having a notable day.

Miami has been more accommodating against the pass but that was when they were on the road. At home, they held Drew Bledsoe to only 98 yards passing. This will prove to be a lower scoring game for the Pats offense that has not been on fire as of late anyway. What benefit the running game had offered the past two weeks will almost surely be negated and forcing Brady to pass will lead to more errors than scores.

Miami Notes

Quarterbacks: Jay Fiedler comes off a ho-hum 147 yard passing day with no scores and one interception. For the past three weeks he has hovered around 150 yards through the air and with the ground game and defense winning games, there is little reason to want more.

Running backs: Against the Giants, Ricky Williams was bottled up for only 39 yards on 22 carries though he scored one touchdown. Since the week one fiasco against the Texans, Williams has scored in three straight games and has 100+ yard efforts in two of them. Back at home, he should end up with 3 of 4.

Wide Receivers: Just when you think the receivers could not get worse, the three of them - James McKnight (2-17), Chris Chambers (3-19) and Derrius Thompson (2-22) prove that they can. Prior to last week Chambers had caught a touchdown in every game this season. Including last week, no other wideout has scored a touchdown.

Tight Ends: The second-year player Randy McMichael continues to prove his worth, catching only two passes for 27 yards but alertly scooping up a fumble for a touchdown. In the two previous games, McMichael had 57 yards receiving in each game and one score.

Match against the defense: The Patriot defense was nothing short of superb in the rain last week, but now travel to Miami to face Ricky Williams who had 100 yard efforts in both their matchups last season. The Patriots have not allowed a 100 yard rusher yet this season though they have allowed five touchdowns by running backs and was torched for 185 yards and two scores last year by Williams in New England. Ricky will get his yardage and at least one score.

Fiedler did not exceed 200 yards passing against the Patriots and there is little reason to expect that to change even though New England will give up passing yardage. Back at home, Miami will look to make this a toe-to-toe punch out game that they can win.

Game Prediction: The Patriots have lost to "lesser" teams - Buffalo and Washington and yet beaten the Titans and Giants. The difference here is that they are on the road where the two losses happened and the Dolphins are back at home on a four game winning streak. The Fins will look to take away the run, then the pass, then the game.

Team Comparisons - Current team rankings (1-32) by position for FF points scored or allowed by position
Rank (1-32) QB RB WR TE PK DEF
NE Scores
26
10
26
14
21
3
MIA Allows
11
2
18
10
6
18
NE AP -15 -8 -8 -4 -15 -15
Rank (1-32) QB RB WR TE PK DEF
MIA Scores
25
8
30
17
26
11
NE Allows
22
20
7
16
26
17
MIA AP -3 12 23 -1 0 6
Offensive ranks - lower = gains more points, Defensive Ranks lower = allows less points
AP = Advantage Points, the net difference between a positional rank gained or allowed by the teams.
NE MIA 2003 Game Averages MIA NE
Gains Allows QB's Gains Allows
202
254
Pass yards
177
260
1.0
0.4
Pass TDs
1.0
0.3
1.2
1.8
Interceptions
1.0
1.5
2
7
Rush yards
13
15
0.2
0.2
Rush TDs
0.2
0.3
----
----
RB's
----
----
110
65
Rush yards
104
72
0.7
0.2
Rush TDs
0.8
0.8
45
38
Receive yards
48
60
0.2
0.0
Receive TD's
0.2
0.0
----
----
WR's
----
----
119
178
Receive yards
93
162
0.5
0.4
Receive TD's
0.6
0.2
----
----
TE's
----
----
38
37
Receive yards
36
38
0.3
0.0
Receive TD's
0.2
0.2
----
----
PK's
----
----
1.3
1.6
Field Goals
1.0
2.3
2.3
1.0
Extra Points
2.6
1.7
----
----
DEF/ST
----
----
1.2
1.0
Fumbles
0.6
0.3
1.3
1.0
Interceptions
2.0
1.2
0.7
0.2
Touchdowns
0.2
0.2
3.3
1.4
Sacks
2.0
2.5
0.0
0.0
Safeties
0.0
0.0
Dolphins (4-1)
Score Opp.
20-21 HOU
21-10 @NYJ
17-7 BUF
Week 4 BYE
23-10 @NYG
24-10 @JAX
Week 7 NE
Week 8 @SD
Week 9 IND
Week 10 @TEN
Week 11 BAL
Week 12 WAS
Week 13 @DAL
Week 14 @NE
Week 15 PHI
Week 16 @BUF
Week 17 NYJ
Patriots (4-2)
Score Opp.
0-31 @BUF
31-10 @PHI
23-16 NYJ
17-20 @WAS
38-30 TEN
17-6 NYG
Week 7 @MIA
Week 8 CLE
Week 9 @DEN
Week 10 BYE
Week 11 DAL
Week 12 @HOU
Week 13 @IND
Week 14 MIA
Week 15 JAX
Week 16 @NYJ
Week 17 BUF

* Fantasy point rankings calculated using standard Huddle fantasy points