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Predictions & Projections
By David M. Dorey
 
The Huddle
WEEK 9
September 3, 2003
Season Ticket
Sun 1 PM Sun 1 PM Sun 4 PM Sun 8:30 PM Bye Week:
CAR at HOU NYG at NYJ CIN at ARZ GB at MIN Buffalo
IND at MIA OAK at DET PIT at SEA Mon 9 PM Cleveland
JAX at BAL SD at CHI PHI at ATL NE at DEN Kansas City
NO at TB WAS at DAL STL at SF *updated Tennessee
   
NY Giants vs NY Jets Sun, Nov 2; 1 PM on FOX at Giants Stadium
  New York Giants Rush Catch Pass
QB Kerry Collins 0 0 220,1
RB Tiki Barber 100,1 30 0
TE Jeremy Shockey 0 50,1 0
WR Amani Toomer 0 40 0
WR Ike Hilliard 0 60 0
WR Tim Carter 0 20 0
  New York Jets Rush Catch Pass
QB Chad Pennington 0 0 200,1
RB Curtis Martin 60 10 0
RB Lamont Jordan 10 0 0
TE Anthony Becht 0 20 0
WR Wayne Chrebet 0 50 0
WR Curtis Conway 0 30 0
WR Santana Moss 0 70,1 0

Game Prediction: NYG 17, NYJ 13

This will be a tough game to call. Prior to coming to life in Minnesota last week, the Giants has not scored more than 10 points in the previous three games. The last home game by the Jets was a 30-3 thumping of the Bills. Throw Chad Pennington into the mix and the Jets may enter the game with more enthusiasm than normal. This is the first time since 1999 they have met in the regular season. How do you call a game with two home teams? Particularly with the Giant's uncanny knack for blowing a game late?

This is truly a coin flip game to me - the Giants come off an emotional win on the road and they have yet to string two wins together this year. The Jets always get more from their defense than seems to be there and there are reasons to have hope the offense is improving.

In the end, expect that the Giants take a close win thanks to an ability to run better than the Jets and that Pennington still has a bit of rust to work off.

NY Giants Notes

The Giants are 3-4 in the NFC East and come off a big win over the Vikings.

Quarterbacks: After hitting a dry spell for scoring, Kerry Collins has three touchdowns in the past two games and against the Vikings threw for a lofty 375 yards and two scores against only one interception.

Running backs: Tiki Barber only gained 75 yards on 20 carries last week, but scored once and had five catches for 47 yards. The Giants relied on Barber more heavily again, allowing him the 20 totes to only five for Dorsey Levens. Then again, Levens only had five yards rushing.

Wide Receivers: With plenty of passing yardage to dole out, the wideouts took the biggest share. Ike Hilliard had a personal best nine catches in the game for 100 yards and two touchdowns while Amani Toomer turned three balls into 96 yards. Tim Carter (2-45) continues as the occasional outlet. It was easily the best passing effort of the year for the Giants.

Tight Ends: Jeremy Shockey only had three catches but showed some speed (relatively speaking) and some moves (relatively speaking) in gaining 81 yards. He had the fewest catches in a game since week one but did a lot with the few he had.

Match against the defense: The Giants may catch a break if DE John Abraham misses this week with a strained groin. LB Mo Lewis is also having problem with his hip and back but the results are not known yet. CB Donnie Abraham has a fracture in his right shoulder and will miss the next few weeks so Ray Mickens will take his place.

The Jets continue to be plagued with poor run stopping and the defensive injuries may make it even worse. They gave up 100 yards to Correll Buckhalter last week and as one of the worst rush defenses, it is a safe bet that Tiki Barber turns in a nice game this week.

Kerry Collins will have a tougher time maintaining those big passing numbers against a defense that has held every opponent to under 202 yards passing though much of that is a function of the running game going so well. Look for a lesser week from Collins and the boys since the G-men can run and are on their second road game in a row after a big win in Minny.

NY Jets Notes

The Jets fall to 2-5 after losing to the Eagles last week.

Quarterbacks: The big return of Chad Pennington happened last week. Vinny Testaverde started the game but only had seven completions on 11 passes for 112 yards which included a 60 yard flea-flicker touchdown to Santana Moss. Pennington went 14 of 24 for 154 yards and one interception in the game. He was a little rusty and his one interception killed the chances of the Jets, but he is back and will be regaining form.

Running backs: Curtis Martin has seen improving numbers the past five weeks, ending with his season best game last week of 110 rushing yards on only 20 carries. More impressive was that he did that in Philadelphia. Lamont Jordan did come in and take the one yard rushing score, but by this point Martin just gaining yards is exciting.

Wide Receivers: Take away the one 60 yard touchdown on a trick play by Moss and none of the wideouts did much last week. Curtis Conway (2-32) and Wayne Chrebet (3-44) were only marginally more effective than the tight ends were. The more interesting picture will be drawn this week as Pennington takes his first full start of the year against a defense that has been fairly good against the pass lately.

Tight Ends: Both Anthony Becht and Chris Baker had two catches and combined for 53 yards. That was actually fairly typical though a little higher in yardage than normal. This week the duo face the toughest team against tight ends.

Match against the defense: The Giants secondary started the season terrible but have really solidified over the weeks. After yielding 300+ yard games each of the first three weeks, they have held opponents at bay after the bye week. Bledsoe (202), Brady (112) and McNabb (64) all turned in subpar games and while Culpepper torched them for 241 yards and two scores last week, that was almost entirely in the first half and mainly on a few passes to Randy Moss.

Curtis Martin faces a defense that has yet to allow a runner to gain 100 yards this year and that includes Ricky Williams (39) and Travis Henry (53).

Team Comparisons - Current team rankings (1-32) for FF points scored or allowed by position
Rank (1-32)
QB
RB
WR
TE
PK
DEF
NYG Scores
8
21
10
3
9
10
NYJ Allows
5
29
2
9
7
4
NYG AP
-3
8
-8
6
-2
-6
Rank (1-32)
QB
RB
WR
TE
PK
DEF
NYJ Scores
23
25
18
18
13
14
NYG Allows
9
4
21
1
20
25
NYJ AP
-14
-21
3
-17
7
11
Offensive ranks lower = gains more points, Defensive ranks lower = allows less points
AP = Advantage Points, the net difference between a positional rank gained or allowed by the teams.
NYG
NYJ
2003 Game Averages
NYJ
NYG
Gains
Allows
QB's
Gains
Allows
269
178
Pass yards
220
228
1.3
0.6
Pass TDs
1.0
0.7
1.4
0.7
Interceptions
0.4
0.9
4
13
Rush yards
2
14
0.0
0.3
Rush TDs
0.0
0.0
---
---
RB's
---
---
99
142
Rush yards
82
79
0.4
0.9
Rush TDs
0.4
0.4
49
40
Receive yards
46
40
0.0
0.1
Receive TD's
0.0
0.0
---
---
WR's
---
---
158
108
Receive yards
150
163
1.0
0.3
Receive TD's
0.7
0.7
---
---
TE's
---
---
62
30
Receive yards
24
25
0.3
0.1
Receive TD's
0.3
0.0
---
---
PK's
---
---
2.0
1.4
Field Goals
2.0
1.6
1.7
1.7
Extra Points
1.4
2.6
---
---
DEF/ST
---
---
0.9
0.6
Fumbles
0.9
0.7
0.7
0.3
Interceptions
0.7
1.7
0.3
0.1
Touchdowns
0.0
0.4
3.4
1.9
Sacks
3.7
1.6
0.0
0.0
Safeties
0.0
0.0
Jets (2-5)
Score Opp.
13-16 @WAS
10-21 MIA
16-23 @NE
6-17 DAL
Week 5 BYE
30-3 BUF
19-14 @HOU
17-24 @PHI
Week 9 NYG
Week 10 @OAK
Week 11 @IND
Week 12 JAX
Week 13 TEN
Week 14 @BUF
Week 15 PIT
Week 16 NE
Week 17 @MIA
Giants (3-4)
Score Opp.
23-13 STL
32-35 DAL
24-21 @WAS
Week 4 BYE
10-23 MIA
6-17 @NE
10-14 PHI
29-17 @MIN
Week 9 @NYJ
Week 10 ATL
Week 11 @PHI
Week 12 @TB
Week 13 BUF
Week 14 WAS
Week 15 @NO
Week 16 @DAL
Week 17 CAR

* Fantasy point rankings calculated using standard Huddle fantasy points