The
Huddle
WEEK 9
September 3, 2003
Season Ticket
|
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| |
|
| St. Louis vs San Francisco |
Sun, Nov 2; 4 PM on FOX at San
Francisco Stadium |
| |
St.
Louis |
Rush
|
Catch
|
Pass |
| QB |
Marc Bulger |
0 |
0 |
280,2 |
| RB |
Marshall Faulk |
40 |
10 |
0 |
| RB |
Arlen Harris |
50,1 |
20 |
0 |
| TE |
B. Manumaleuna |
0 |
20 |
0 |
| WR |
Isaac Bruce |
0 |
70 |
0 |
| WR |
Torry Holt |
0 |
100,1 |
0 |
| WR |
Dane Looker |
0 |
40,1 |
0 |
|
| |
San
Francisco |
Rush
|
Catch
|
Pass |
| QB |
Jeff Garcia |
O |
O |
O |
| QB |
Tim
Rattay |
0 |
0 |
220,1 |
| RB |
Garrison Hearst
|
80,1 |
20 |
0 |
| RB |
Kevan Barlow
|
50 |
10 |
0 |
| TE |
Jed Weaver |
0 |
10 |
0 |
| WR |
Terrell Owens
|
0 |
70,1 |
0 |
| WR |
Tai Streets |
0 |
50 |
0 |
| WR |
Cedrick Wilson
|
0 |
30 |
0 |
|
Game Prediction: STL 27, SF 20
Update:
Garcia is now held out this week due to his ankle injury and
Tim Rattay will be starting. I am adjusting the numbers but
this is Rattay's first start so his production is rather hard
to rely on. Rattay has looked very capable in limited play
so far and new quarterbacks often pose a problem for defenses
who are less sure what preparations to make. Since the game
plan will be similar, I am leaving the other projections alone
but a bigger element of uncertainty now exists.
Marshall Faulk's role is still unclear
and will be determined as the game is played. HC Mike Martz
has already said that Arlen Harris will start and that Faulk
will play but what ratios remain to be seen. It now looks
more favorable for Harris than Faulk for this week.
This is a monster game for the 49ers since a loss here pretty
much signals this season is a lost cause. Dropping to 3-6
would prove a deathknell. Problem is that the 49ers have never
scored over 24 points this season outside of week one. The
Rams have not score less than 30 for the past four games.
The 49ers have been wildly inconsistent this season and this
is a definite "circle the wagons" game. But the
Rams are hitting on all cylinders now, they know the 49ers
well and can take advantage of the 49er weaknesses on special
teams and pass blocking. There is no way that San Francisco
can win a passing war so Hearst and Barlow (a bit dinged up
with a shoulder injury) will get very heavy play in the first
half. But unless San Francisco can produce another big effort
like the TB game, they cannot win here. The game should prove
very close at first, but with an eventual pulling away by
the Rams that the 49ers will not be able to match.
St. Louis Notes
The Rams are 5-2 and tied with the Seahawks in the NFC West.
They are on a five game winning streak.
Quarterbacks: Mark
Bulger went to Pittsburgh last week and torched their
cover two secondary. He threw for 375 yards and one touchdown
with no interceptions. Bulger has been on fire.
Running backs: Arlen
Harris was all the news last week when he took his first
start and gained 81 yards rushing, 15 yards receiving and
scored three touchdowns. Harris set the Rams rushing record
with an incredible 34 carries in the game which says something
about their opponent when Bulger was busy throwing for his
375 yards as well. This week should see Marshall Faulk
return from his hand injury and Harris to spell him. Lamar
Gordon missed last week with a high ankle sprain and I am
assuming that he does not play on the slow field in San Francisco.
Wide Receivers: Torry
Holt now has almost identical numbers to Randy Moss with
778 yards and eight touchdowns. Isaac Bruce has 599
yards on the season and although they have received an almost
even number of throws this season (76 vs. 65), Holt is clearly
the preferred target near the endzone since Bruce has only
one touchdown on the season. Shaun McDonald still is
not getting back to the #3 spot since Dane Looker continues
to play well.
Tight Ends: Cam Cleeland
turned in a two catch, 54 yard effort last week against Brandon
Manumaleuna's three grabs for 32 yards but Manumaleuna
continues to gain more throws each game. Last week he had
six over the three to Cleeland and the previous week Cleeland
had none.
Match against the defense:
This will be interesting - which 49ers show up? The ones that
throttled the Bucs two weeks ago or the ones that could not
hold off the Browns? There is a slight chance that San Francisco
overlooked the Cardinals last week in the NFL's new quicksand
arena, but that is harder to imagine since the 49ers did not
have a winning record.
The 49ers had been very tough on the run this season but
was carved up for 165 yards by Marcel Shipp last week. Last
season Faulk never gained more than 73 yards on the ground
against the 49ers and held him to only 57 yards earlier this
season in St. Louis. Faulk's first game back is not likely
to be a big rushing day though he normally adds good receiving
yardage on his totals. Harris will likely be used to spell
Faulk and not demand too much work from Marshall in his first
game back.
In their week two meeting, Marc Bulger only threw for 226
yards and one score but that was his first start of the season
and Bulger did lead a fourth quarter comeback to win that
game. Bulger seems to be getting better each week. They held
Holt and Bruce to only around 60 yards each when they last
met and this game will provide a nice benchmark for how the
Rams have developed this season against their previous meeting.
Look for Bulger go after the corners the entire game but to
make more use of throws to the backs and tight ends this week.
San Francisco Notes
Quarterbacks: Jeff
Garcia was again pummeled by the defense, last week leaving
the game for a bit with a high ankle sprain but returning.
He ended with only 153 yards passing and ran for 44 yards
including a touchdown. He will be considered questionable
this week and Tim Rattay will play if Garcia is held out.
For now, I am assuming that Garcia will play and will be the
object of several blitzes.
Running backs: In the
way that the NFL provides head scratching results each week,
Garrison Hearst ran for 117 yards and a score against
the Bucs. The next week, he gains only 43 yards on 14 carries
against the Cardinals. Kevan Barlow only managed 19
yards on nine carries last week. When Hearst last played the
Rams, he gained 89 yards on only 11 carries though that was
propped up with three nice runs of 15, 17 and 36 yards.
Wide Receivers: Terrell
Owens turned in a mere 53 yards on six catches last week
but 152 yards and a score the previous. He only had 42 yards
the last time these teams played though he did score once.
The 49ers have languished around 200 yards passing in most
games and that has primarily been at the expense of the wideouts.
Tai Streets bounces between 20 and 80 yards receiving
with little consistency. Cedrick Wilson is providing
almost nothing each game in part due to Garcia never getting
to that third read.
Tight Ends: Amazingly,
Jed Weaver has between nine and 19 yards in every game
the past month.
Match against the defense:
This will be interesting. DE Leonard Little has a pectoral
tear and may miss the game and DT Damione Lewis has a mild
high ankle sprain. On the negative side, CB Travis Fisher
is expected to play this week. In matching up the units, it
is compounded by deciding which 49ers show up. That all impacts
the game situation which strongly affects the matchups.
Garrison Hearst should have an average outing here, with
Barlow gaining the standard 60% of Hearst. Terrell Owens has
only had one really big game this season but that too was
at home against a good opponent. Look for Owens to stop dropping
passes and play more up to his ability because with the undoubted
aerial show that will transpire, it will be up to him for
the 49ers to remain in the game.
| Team Comparisons - Current team
rankings (1-32) for FF points scored or allowed
by position |
| Rank (1-32) |
QB
|
RB
|
WR
|
TE
|
PK
|
DEF
|
| STL Scores |
1
|
22
|
1
|
22
|
2
|
12
|
| SF Allows |
18
|
9
|
19
|
16
|
1
|
6
|
| STL AP |
17
|
-13
|
18
|
-6
|
-1
|
-6
|
|
| Rank (1-32) |
QB
|
RB
|
WR
|
TE
|
PK
|
DEF
|
| SF Scores |
5
|
15
|
11
|
28
|
11
|
11
|
| STL Allows |
8
|
10
|
16
|
4
|
2
|
30
|
| SF AP |
3
|
-5
|
5
|
-24
|
-9
|
19
|
|
Offensive ranks lower = gains more points, Defensive
ranks lower = allows less points
AP = Advantage Points, the net difference between a positional
rank gained or allowed by the teams.
|
STL
|
SF
|
2003 Game Averages
|
SF
|
STL
|
|
Gains
|
Allows
|
QB's
|
Gains
|
Allows
|
|
293
|
199
|
Pass yards
|
209
|
200
|
|
1.7
|
1.5
|
Pass TDs
|
1.1
|
1.1
|
|
1.1
|
1.4
|
Interceptions
|
1.0
|
1.3
|
|
6
|
10
|
Rush yards
|
26
|
8
|
|
0.4
|
0.1
|
Rush TDs
|
0.5
|
0.0
|
|
---
|
---
|
RB's
|
---
|
---
|
|
88
|
86
|
Rush yards
|
108
|
86
|
|
0.9
|
0.5
|
Rush TDs
|
0.5
|
0.4
|
|
27
|
39
|
Receive yards
|
39
|
33
|
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
Receive TD's
|
0.1
|
0.3
|
|
---
|
---
|
WR's
|
---
|
---
|
|
231
|
133
|
Receive yards
|
151
|
139
|
|
1.7
|
1.1
|
Receive TD's
|
1.0
|
0.9
|
|
---
|
---
|
TE's
|
---
|
---
|
|
35
|
27
|
Receive yards
|
19
|
28
|
|
0.0
|
0.4
|
Receive TD's
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
|
---
|
---
|
PK's
|
---
|
---
|
|
2.1
|
1.0
|
Field Goals
|
1.8
|
1.0
|
|
3.1
|
2.1
|
Extra Points
|
2.4
|
2.3
|
|
---
|
---
|
DEF/ST
|
---
|
---
|
|
0.9
|
0.4
|
Fumbles
|
1.0
|
1.3
|
|
1.6
|
1.1
|
Interceptions
|
1.4
|
1.1
|
|
0.1
|
0.1
|
Touchdowns
|
0.1
|
0.4
|
|
2.0
|
1.8
|
Sacks
|
2.8
|
2.3
|
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
Safeties
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
|
|
49ers (3-5) |
|
Score |
Opp. |
| 49-7 |
CHI |
| 24-27 |
@STL |
| 12-13 |
CLE |
| 7-35 |
@MIN |
| 24-17 |
DET |
| 19-20 |
@SEA |
| 24-7 |
TB |
| 13-16 |
@ARZ |
| Week 9 |
STL |
| Week 10 |
BYE |
| Week 11 |
PIT |
| Week 12 |
@GB |
| Week 13 |
@BAL |
| Week 14 |
ARZ |
| Week 15 |
@CIN |
| Week 16 |
@PHI |
| Week 17 |
SEA |
|
|
Rams (5-2) |
|
Score |
Opp. |
| 13-23 |
@NYG |
| 27-24 |
SF |
| 23-24 |
@SEA |
| 37-13 |
ARZ |
| Week 5 |
BYE |
| 36-0 |
ATL |
| 34-24 |
GB |
| 33-21 |
@PIT |
| Week 9 |
@SF |
| Week 10 |
BAL |
| Week 11 |
@CHI |
| Week 12 |
@ARZ |
| Week 13 |
MIN |
| Week 14 |
@CLE |
| Week 15 |
SEA |
| Week 16 |
CIN |
| Week 17 |
@DET |
|
* Fantasy point rankings calculated using standard Huddle
fantasy points |