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Predictions & Projections
By David M. Dorey
 
The Huddle
WEEK 10
November 5, 2003
Season Ticket
Sun 1 PM TB at CAR Sun 4 PM Sun 8:30 PM Bye Weeks
ARZ at PIT HOU at CIN TB at CAR BAL at STL Denver
ATL at NYG IND at JAX MIN at SD Mon 9 PM New England
CHI at DET MIA at TEN BUF at DAL PHI at GB New Orleans
CLE at KC SEA at WAS NYJ at OAK *updated San Francisco
   
NY Jets vs Oakland Sun, Nov 9; 4 PM on CBS at Network Associates Coliseum
  New York Jets Rush Catch Pass
QB Chad Pennington 0 0 220,2
RB Curtis Martin 80 10 0
RB Lamont Jordan 20,1 0 0
TE Anthony Becht 0 40,1 0
WR Wayne Chrebet Q Q Q
WR Kevin Swayne 0 20 0
WR Curtis Conway 0 40 0
WR Santana Moss 0 100,1 0
  Oakland Rush Catch Pass
QB Rick Mirer 10 0 170
RB Charlie Garner 70 20 0
RB Justin Fargas 20 0 0
TE Teyo Johnson 0 20 0
WR Tim Brown 0 30 0
WR Jerry Porter 0 50 0
WR Jerry Rice 0 40 0

Game Prediction: NYJ 24, OAK 16

Update: Kevin Swayne will be playing the #3 spot this week with Wayne Chrebet considered out against the Raiders. I have added numbers for him and reduced Conway slightly but chances are the Jets will want to dink and dunk down the field this week which will result in touchdowns by either the running back or tight ends as the secondary commits extra attention against Santana Moss. I have changed a touchdown from Martin to Becht, but as with all short scores either could happen.

The Jets and Raiders have the same record and although they seem to be two teams going in opposite directions, don't be too quick throwing the win to the Jets here. The Raiders will circle the wagons and play this week for respectability and a show that a veteran team can stand tall and bounce back. They have had players publicly grousing but that is to clear the air. The Raiders want a win here for the hometown crowd and their motto is "Commitment to Excellence".

Okay. Now you can go ahead and throw the win to the Jets.

This will be a competitive game, but the injuries to the Raiders will make it hard for them to take advantage of the weaker rush defense and with Mirer at the helm, the fear that they Raiders are going to throw is greatly diminished. The Jets are starting to get the pieces back together this season while the Raiders keep losing more.

New York Jets Notes

The Jets fall to 2-6 and are on a two game losing streak.

Quarterbacks: The return of Chad Pennington may not have produced a win, but his 281 yard, four touchdown game was plenty enough reason to hope for a turnaround by the franchise. Pennington completed 27 of 45 passes but was intercepted twice. He was a little rusty in spots, but is already getting back into the groove.

Running backs: After having started the season looking like he wore out his welcome in the NFL, Curtis Martin has regained form and comes off his second consecutive 100 yard game. Martin recorded those two efforts against the Eagles and Giants defenses and now heads to Oakland to face the 2nd worst rushing defense in the league.

Wide Receivers: Let's see here. Chad Pennington comes back and in one game Santana Moss has ten catches for 121 yards and three touchdowns. He is replacing Lavernues Coles who has only two touchdowns in eight games this season as a Redskin but was burning up the field last year as a Jet. What was common to both Moss this year and Coles last year? Zip code? No - Pennington AKA "an actual NFL quarterback". Santana Moss has 326 yards and five touchdowns in the past three games. Moss is a nice fit for the catch run style of Pennington.

Curtis Conway only had two catches for 32 yards and Wayne Chrebet added 44 yards on three receptions last week. Chrebet took a knee to the head in the third quarter of the Giants game and is questionable to play this week. He will have tests to determine the extent of the probable concussion.

Tight Ends: Pennington used Anthony Becht on a 9-yard scoring pass to tie the game last week. Becht ended with four catches for 44 yards and the one score.

Match against the defense: These two teams played last season when the Raiders won 26-20 in Oakland. Even then, Pennington had 265 yards and two touchdowns and this version of the Raiders is not nearly so scary. Back then Lavernues Coles had 156 yards receiving and Moss is certainly filling his shoes well. The Raiders allowed Corey "I weigh 248 pounds as a fullback" Schlessinger to catch a 33 yard touchdown so the big play is definitely possible.

Curtis Martin faces a rush defense that has allowed over 100 yards rushing to every team in the past eight weeks. While perhaps Martin is no longer the equivalent of Tomlinson (187 yards), he can hang with Anthony Thomas (123 yards) and William Green (145 yards). DT Dana Stubblefield looks like he will miss this week too with his lingering ankle problem.

Oakland Notes

There is bad, then there is "I bent over and split my pants in front of the entire office" bad, but that is still well ahead of "We got trounced by the Lions" bad. The Raiders fall to 2-6 on the season.

Quarterbacks: Rich Gannon was looking bad this season but gave way to Marques Tuiasosopo who looked good for over a quarter of play two weeks ago. Last week Tuiasosopo suffered a partially torn medial collateral ligament and will miss this week and likely many more. Rick Mirer will be the starter but he only managed to complete 15 of 28 for 125 yards and two interceptions against one of the worst secondaries in the league.

The Raiders will likely activate Tee Martin from the practice squad and will be working out free agent quarterbacks this week.

Running backs: Charlie Garner did well enough on his 15 carries to gain 66 yards and one touchdown but the offensive line may be even worse this week. LG Frank Middleton may have torn his quad muscle last week and LG Matt Stinchcomb has been inactive with a lingering shoulder problem. RT Lincoln Kennedy aggravated his torn calf and could miss much of the rest of the season. His replacement Langston Walker has a badly bruised joint and could not finish the game last week due to dehydration. Substitute guard Brad Badger injured his shoulder last week as well.

Wide Receivers: In the comedy of errors last week, Jerry Rice gained 71 yards on eight catches but lost a fumble. Jerry Porter had four catches for 49 yards and was overthrown continually as he tried splitting the safeties which usually ended with him getting decked. Tim Brown managed 49 yards as well but needed six catches to get there.

Tight Ends: Teyo Johnson had only one catch for 11 yards but he missed a couple of blocks which led to sacks.

Match against the defense: As bad as all that sounds, the Raiders are back in Oakland licking their wounds and not yet giving up on the season. Charlie Garner will be facing the 29th best rushing offense and will undoubtedly be needed to run in order to minimize the need for Rick Mirer to pass. The Raiders will be hard pressed to produce much in the air anyway against a solid secondary so game will hinge on running and reducing mistakes.

Team Comparisons - Current team rankings (1-32) for FF points scored or allowed by position
Rank (1-32)
QB
RB
WR
TE
PK
DEF
NYJ Scores
14
20
6
17
9
14
OAK Allows
10
31
2
12
24
19
NYJ AP
-4
11
-4
-5
15
5
Rank (1-32)
QB
RB
WR
TE
PK
DEF
OAK Scores
23
21
19
14
14
28
NYJ Allows
4
29
4
8
12
15
OAK AP
-19
8
-15
-6
-2
-13
Offensive ranks lower = gains more points, Defensive ranks lower = allows less points
AP = Advatage Points, the net difference between a positional rank gained or allowed by the teams.
NYJ
OAK
2003 Game Averages
OAK
NYJ
Gains
Allows
QB's
Gains
Allows
224
166
Pass yards
225
195
1.7
0.8
Pass TDs
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.8
Interceptions
1.5
0.7
2
19
Rush yards
6
5
0.0
0.3
Rush TDs
0.0
0.2
---
---
RB's
---
---
101
144
Rush yards
82
133
0.3
1.2
Rush TDs
0.8
1.0
45
39
Receive yards
32
42
0.0
0.2
Receive TD's
0.0
0.2
---
---
WR's
---
---
151
103
Receive yards
159
113
1.3
0.3
Receive TD's
0.3
0.5
---
---
TE's
---
---
28
25
Receive yards
35
41
0.3
0.3
Receive TD's
0.3
0.0
---
---
PK's
---
---
1.8
1.8
Field Goals
1.8
1.3
2.0
2.5
Extra Points
1.5
2.0
---
---
DEF/ST
---
---
0.7
0.5
Fumbles
0.7
1.0
0.7
1.5
Interceptions
0.8
0.5
0.0
0.0
Touchdowns
0.0
0.2
3.7
2.8
Sacks
1.3
2.3
0.0
0.0
Safeties
0.0
0.0
Jets (2-6)
Score Opp.
13-16 @WAS
10-21 MIA
16-23 @NE
6-17 DAL
Week 5 BYE
30-3 BUF
19-14 @HOU
17-24 @PHI
28-31 NYG
Week 10 @OAK
Week 11 @IND
Week 12 JAX
Week 13 TEN
Week 14 @BUF
Week 15 PIT
Week 16 NE
Week 17 @MIA
Raiders (2-5)
Score Opp.
20-25 @TEN
23-20 CIN
10-31 @DEN
34-31 SD
21-24 @CHI
7-13 @CLE
10-17 KC
Week 8 BYE
13-23 @DET
Week 10 NYJ
Week 11 MIN
Week 12 @KC
Week 13 DEN
Week 14 @PIT
Week 15 BAL
Week 16 GB
Week 17 @SD

* Fantasy point rankings calculated using standard Huddle fantasy points