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STRAIGHT-UP
Last Week -- 5-9 (36%)
Overall -- 71-59 (55%) |
AGAINST THE SPREAD
Last Week -- 7-7 (50%)
Overall -- 59-67-4 (47%) |
PREMIUM PICKS*
Last Week -- 1-0
Overall -- 8-6 (57%) |
See, I knew I'd jinx myself. I'm not superstitious...
but I knew it, all the same.
The lesson learned is to pick more upsets... and 'dogs.
The Dogs are having their day, it seems, every weekend.
PREVIEW - WEEK 10 (Nov. 9-10)
| MIAMI at TENNESSEE |
Fantasy Take |
Key Injuries |
|
Line: Titans favored by 5
Records: Dolphins 5-3 (5-3 ATS); Titans
6-2 (6-2 ATS)
Stats Worth Noting: The Dolphins have won
five in a row in this series, the last a 31-23 win
at Tennessee in 2001. Miami enters this game unbeaten
on the road this season. The Titans are undefeated
at home.
Game Summary: It will be interesting to see
how Miami bounces back after its loss at home to
Indy last week. I'm being accused these days of being
a Dolphins fan (perish that thought), but I do like
teams with great defense and good rushing attacks.
Tennessee has been playing well, and has had an extra
week to prepare -- two sound reasons to pick the
Titans here. But I'm not. There have been many instances
where talented teams come off their bye week flat.
Miami's recent dominance of this series, for whatever
reason you care to fill in, continues.
Prediction: DOLPHINS, 20-17
|
Dolphins:
Back to basics -- you have to play RB Ricky Williams.
As for either of QBs Jay Fiedler or Brian Griese,
it's probable that you have a better option. WR Chris
Chambers and TE Randy McMichael are solid plays.
And I like K Olindo Mare this week as well. The defense
is a given, even against Steve McNair and company.
Titans:
It's not a favorable matchup but McNair is a play.
WR Derrick Mason has been feast or famine, but he's
due to come up big. Bench RB Eddie George IF you
have a viable alternative.
|
Dolphins:
QB Jay Fiedler (ques)
WR Oronde Gadsden (injured
reserve)
Titans:
WR Drew Bennett (out)
DE Jevon Kearse (ques)
DB Samari Rolle (out)
|
| HOUSTON at CINCINNATI |
Fantasy Take |
Key Injuries |
|
Line: Bengals favored by 5
Records: Texans 3-5 (3-5 ATS), Bengals 3-5
(5-3 ATS)
Stats Worth Noting: The Bengals won the only
previous meeting, 38-3, last year at Houston.
Game Summary: The one potential advantage
to being the losingest franchise in football over
the last decade or so is that one setback isn't a
shock to the system. The Bengals fell at Arizona
last week despite being favored, but it shouldn't
set their trek toward significant improvement back
that much. Houston is improving, too, but sometimes
teams just don't match-up well against certain other
teams.
Prediction: BENGALS, 24-13
|
Texans:
RB Domanick Davis remains a solid play, and TE Billy
Miller is excellent in leagues with TEs as separate
category. I'd pass on the rest, except in the largest
leagues.
Bengals:
QB Jon Kitna might have a big day, which means so
might WR Chad Johnson. Other receivers are less reliable.
RB Corey Dillon will get the start, but play at your
own risk. The Bengals defense is solid.
|
Texans:
QB David Carr (prob)
Bengals:
RB Corey Dillon (prob)
TE Reggie Kelly (ques)
|
| CLEVELAND at KANSAS CITY |
Fantasy Take |
Key Injuries |
|
Line: Chiefs favored by 10
Records: Browns 3-5 (3-5 ATS), Chiefs 8-0
(7-1 ATS)
Stats Worth Noting: These two have met only
three times in the last 10 years, with KC winning
two including last year's thrilling 40-39 win at
Cleveland.
Game Summary: I smell an upset here... ah,
just kidding KC fans. Calm down. Remember the game
last season when the player took off his helmet on
the field and got a personal foul penalty that essentially
gave the game away? This was it. But don't worry,
Browns fans. Won't happen again. This game won't
be anywhere near that close.
Prediction: CHIEFS, 31-14
|
Browns:
Without RB William Green, the Browns are hurting.
I can't recommend James Jackson. The WRs continue
to cancel themselves out. Kelly Holcomb gets the
start at QB, but I suggest avoiding the whole lot.
Chiefs:
QB Trent Green, RB Priest Holmes, TE Tony Gonzalez,
the special teams -- play 'em all, every week. Opt
for WRs only if you can figure out who's going to
get the balls each week.
|
Browns:
QB Tim Couch (prob)
RB William Green (out, suspended)
TE Aaron Shea (out)
Chiefs:
WR Marc Boerigter (ques)
|
| ARIZONA at PITTSBURGH |
Fantasy Take |
Key Injuries |
|
Line: Steelers favored by 7 1/2
Records: Cardinals 3-5 (3-5 ATS), Steelers
2-6 (3-5 ATS)
Stats Worth Noting: The Cardinals are 0-3
on the road, straight-up and ATS.
Game Summary: I'm hard-headed. I keep saying
the Steelers are better than their record, and they
keep getting whupped. Well, not this week, my friends.
If Pittsburgh doesn't put a grade-A hurtin' on the
visiting Cardinals, coach Bill Cowher will grimace
so fiercely he might actually he swallow his own
lips. Talk about a tough interview if that happens...
Prediction: STEELERS, 30-10 (*premium pick)
|
Cardinals:
QB Jeff Blake is a decent sleeper play, if the Cards
get behind as I suspect. Rookie WRs Boldin and Johnson
remain solid. RB Marcel Shipp won't come up big as
he has the last two weeks, but he's worth a look.
Steelers:
QB Tommy Maddox hasn't played well, but he's due
to put up some numbers here. His two WR stars, Hines
Ward and Plaxico Burress, are go's. So is RB Jerome
Bettis, and the D/ST.
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Cardinals:
RB Emmitt Smith (ques)
WR Jason McAddley (ques)
K Bill Gramatica (ques)
Steelers:
TE Jay Riemersma (ques)
|
| INDIANAPOLIS at JACKSONVILLE |
Fantasy Take |
Key Injuries |
|
Line: Colts favored by 6
Records: Colts 7-1 (6-2 ATS); Jaguars 1-7
(2-6 ATS)
Stats Worth Noting: The Colts have never
lost to Jacksonville in five meetings, but the Jaguars
have covered two of the last three ATS.
Game Summary: Indy took care of business
in the first meeting this season, 23-13. The biggest
challenge for the Colts will be getting up for this
game. While they're clearly the superior team, Indy
could be flat after the big emotional win at Miami
last week. Then again, we're probably splitting hairs.
Colts win again.
Prediction: COLTS, 31-16
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Colts:
RB Edgerrin James looked fit last week -- play him
along with automatics Peyton Manning and Marvin Harrison.
I like WR Reggie Wayne and TE Marcus Pollard, too,
and the Colts defense.
Jaguars:
RB Fred Taylor and WR Jimmy Smith are good as your
second RB or third WR, respectively.
|
Colts:
RB Ricky Williams (ques)
RB James Mungro (ques)
TE Dallas Clark (ques)
Jaguars:
QB Mark Brunell (doubt)
WR Jermaine Lewis (injured
reserve)
|
| ATLANTA at NEW YORK GIANTS |
Fantasy Take |
Key Injuries |
|
Line: Giants favored by 10 1/2
Records: Falcons 1-7 (1-7 ATS), Giants 4-4(4-4
ATS)
Stats Worth Noting: Atlanta has covered in
each of the last three meetings, and beat the Giants
on the road last season, 17-10.
Game Summary: The Falcons have been outscored
a combined 59-3 in their last two road games, and
have lost seven straight overall, including all ATS.
But I have a real hard time laying that many points
with the unpredictable Giants. So I won't. And I
suggest you don't either.
Prediction: GIANTS, 20-12
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Falcons:
There's no one truly worth playing, really. RB TJ
Duckett is your best bet.
Giants:
Even the Giants' woeful offensive line should be
good enough against Atlanta's banged-up D, so look
for a big game from QB Kerry Collins. His three favorite
targets are all plays, as is RB Tiki Barber and the
defense.
|
Falcons:
QB Michael Vick (out)
LB Keith Brooking (ques)
Giants:
none
|
| SEATTLE at WASHINGTON |
Fantasy Take |
Key Injuries |
|
Line: Seahawks favored by 3
Records: Seahawks 6-2 (5-3 ATS); Redskins
3-5 (2-5-1 ATS)
Stats Worth Noting: The Redskins have won
the last two meetings, both by double-digits including
a 14-3 triumph at Seattle last season.
Game Summary: Redskins coach Steve Spurrier
is taking a lot of bashing these days, as is his
QBs. But I like Washington at home in this game because
of my belief that the Redskins will push themselves
to come to the aid of their beleaguered "ball
coach." (If I keeping picking Seattle to lose,
it will eventually).
Prediction: REDSKINS, 23-20
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Seahawks:
RB Shaun Alexander is an auto play, and the passing
game led by QB Matt Hasselbeck and WR Darrell Jackson
are worth considering, as is TE Itula Mili.
Redskins:
It's tough without a top-notch featured back, but
the Skins have two WRs in Coles and Rod Gardner worth
a look.
|
Seahawks:
WR Koren Robinson (ques)
DL Chad Eaton (injured
reserve)
LB Chad Brown (ques)
Redskins:
QB Patrick Ramsey (prob)
RB Trung Canidate (prob)
RB Ladell Betts (doubt)
RB Chad Morton (ques)
DL Brandon Noble (injured reserve)
DB Fred Smoot (ques)
|
| CHICAGO at DETROIT |
Fantasy Take |
Key Injuries |
|
Line: Lions favored by 2
Records: Bears 3-5 (4-4 ATS), Lions 2-6
(4-4 ATS)
Stats Worth Noting: The Bears have won four
of the last five meetings, including a 24-16 victory
last month at Chicago.
Game Summary: How odd is it that each of
the teams come into this clash off a victory? In
fact, the Bears have won two straight. Make it three,
because the Chicago defense is playing well. Kudos
to the Lions for taking advantage of under-whelming
Oakland last week, but the Bears are better prepared
to continue their winning ways against weaker foes.
Prediction: BEARS, 23-17
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Bears:
The running game led by Anthony Thomas is a strong
play. I'd avoid the passing game, because of the
questionable health of the WRs and TEs.
Lions:
RBs Olandis Gary and Shawn Bryson looked good against
Oakland's league-worst run defense. But bench both
here. In fact, I'm not thrilled with any of the Lions
as fantasy options.
|
Bears:
QB Kordell Stewart (ques)
WR Marty Booker (prob)
Lions:
RB James Stewart (injured reserve)
WR Charles Rogers
(doubt)
|
| TAMPA BAY at CAROLINA |
Fantasy Take |
Key Injuries |
|
Line: Buccaneers favored by 3
Records: Buccaneers 4-4 (4-4 ATS), Panthers
6-2 (4-4 ATS)
Stats Worth Noting: Two of the last three
meetings have finished with final scores of 12-9.
The Panthers won at Tampa by that tally earlier this
season, and the Bucs prevailed at Carolina last season
by that score.
Game Summary: Rarely is a road favorite
a lock pick for me, but the Bucs are clearly the
play here. The defending champs have been excellent
on the road this season, have followed each of their
four losses with a win, and have put themselves in
a must-win situation. The Panthers are a sound team
on a slow decline after their fabulous start. Even
if RB Stephen Davis runs rampant, the Bucs will find
a way.
Prediction: BUCS, 19-13 (*premium pick)
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Buccaneers:
RB Michael Pittman should be a good play, especially
in yardage leagues. QB Brad Johnson has been solid,
but don't WR Keyshawn Johnson to have a big day as
he did last week. In fact, Keenan McCardell is probably
a better play. Play the defense and K Martin Gramatica.
Panthers:
RB Stephen Davis is the only automatic choice. I'd
suggest benching WR Steve Smith, except that he's
so hot you probably can't afford to risk it. Play
the defense and K John Kasay.
|
Buccaneers:
RB Mike Alstott (injured reserve)
WR Joe Jurevicius
(ques)
DB Brian Kelly (injured reserve)
DB John Lynch (ques)
Panthers:
WR Muhsin Muhammad (prob)
WR Kevin Dyson (ques)
DL Kavika Pittman (out)
|
| MINNESOTA at SAN DIEGO |
Fantasy Take |
Key Injuries |
|
Line: Vikings favored by 5 1/2
Records: Chargers 1-7 (2-6 ATS), Vikings
6-2 (6-2 ATS)
Stats Worth Noting: None.
Game Summary: The Vikings have yet to lose
on the road this season, but it will be interesting
to see how the team performs after back-to-back home
defeats. San Diego might hang with the Vikings with
a large dose of RB LaDainian Tomlinson, and if the
passing game can come up some plays down the field.
Minnesota's mindset is questionable at this point,
but the Chargers just don't have it in them.
Prediction: VIKINGS, 27-20
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Vikings:
RB Michael Bennett looked strong in his return Sunday
night, but be aware that he's unlikely to start.
Play QB Daunte Culpepper and WR Randy Moss, of course.
Skip the rest, except for the defense in larger leagues.
Chargers:
Tomlinson might get 40 touches in this one, but
you can also WR David Boston to make plays. The QB
situation between Drew Brees and Doug Flutie is touch-and-go.
|
Vikings:
none
Chargers:
WR Eric Parker (out)
WR Reche Caldwell (ques)
TE Stephen Alexander (doubt)
|
| NEW YORK JETS at OAKLAND |
Fantasy Take |
Key Injuries |
|
Line: Jets favored by 3
Records: Jets 2-6 (2-5-1 ATS), Raiders 2-6(0-8
ATS)
Stats Worth Noting: Oakland, as it says above,
is 0-8 ATS this season. But, the Raiders have owned
this rivalry in recent years, winning three straight
and going 2-0-1 ATS.
Game Summary: It looks as though the Raiders
will have to go with Rick Mirer at QB. Ugh. So the
question is whether the defense can suck it up before
the home folks and end the skid. Jets QB Chad Pennington
may be primed for a big day... and as much as I'd
like to take the Raiders as home 'dogs (how often
does that happen?), the QB comparison is just too
lopsided.
Prediction: JETS, 24-10
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Jets:
Pennington-to-WR Santana Moss hooked up three times
last week. Don't expect that again, but you can be
comfortable playing the hot hands (yuk yuk). RB Curtis
Martin is also a go, as is the Jets defense.
Raiders:
I'm guessing we'll see a ton of RB Charlie Garner,
so play him by sheer volume. The WRs are dead for
now, although you'll be hard-pressed to keep Jerry
Porter on the pine. Rob Johnson has been signed as
QB insurance - more ugh.
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Jets:
WR Wayne Chrebet (ques)
LB Mo Lewis (ques)
Raiders:
QB Rich Gannon (out)
QB Marques Tuiasosopo (out)
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| BUFFALO at DALLAS |
Fantasy Take |
Key Injuries |
|
Line: Cowboys favored by 4
Records: Bills 4-4 (3-5 ATS), Cowboys 6-2
(6-2 ATS)
Stats Worth Noting: None.
Game Summary: It's more of a hunch than anything,
but I like Buffalo to get the upset on the road.
I still like its personnel better (sorry, I'm not
convinced just yet that QB Quincy Carter can come
up big consistently) and it has desperation on its
side as well. The big question will be protecting
QB Drew Bledsoe. If the Bills' line gives him time
to throw, you'll see the upset.
Prediction: BILLS, 17-14
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Bills:
If my upset pick is to come true, RB Travis Henry
will have to come up big. Bledsoe and WR Eric Moulds
are always reasonable plays, and I like the Bills
defense this week.
Cowboys:
Carter and his trio of top WRs are fine plays, and
RB Troy Hambrick is solid in larger leagues. Stick
with the hot Dallas D.
|
Bills:
none
Cowboys:
RB Richie Anderson (ques)
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| BALTIMORE at ST. LOUIS |
Fantasy Take |
Key Injuries |
|
Line: Rams favored by 7
Records: Ravens 5-3 (5-3 ATS), Rams 5-3
(5-2-1 ATS)
Stats Worth Noting: None.
Game Summary: Baltimore has just the type
of quality defense that can cause problems for the
Rams, even in their cozy dome home. The obvious battle
will be the Ravens' run attack against the St. Louis
D in a bid to control the clock and keep the Rams'
attack off the field. It will work for a while, but
the Rams will get a close win because of their improved
defense.
Prediction: RAMS, 24-20
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Ravens:
RB Jamal Lewis and TE Todd Heap. Forget the rest,
including the Ravens D for this week.
Rams:
Regardless of the match-up, you play the key components
of the Rams' passing attack. On the ground, go with
Marshall Faulk even though it will be his first start
in a while. I like the Rams D, too.
|
Ravens:
none
Rams:
RB Lamar Gordon (ques)
DL Leonard Little (ques)
LB Tommy Polley (doubt)
DB Adam Archuletta (prob)
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| PHILADELPHIA at GREEN BAY (Monday) |
Fantasy Take |
Key Injuries |
|
Line: Packers favored by 4
Records: Eagles 5-3 (4-4 ATS), Packers 4-4
(4-4 ATS)
Stats Worth Noting: In the last four meetings
at Green Bay (none since 1997), the Packers have
won three outright but Philly has covered ATS in
three.
Game Summary: If the Eagles offense was
operating more efficiently, I might like them here.
But the Packers, coming off a huge victory at Minnesota,
might be poised to go on a winning streak. It's getting
colder now, and you know how tough Brett Favre is
to beat at home when you can see your breath. As
long as the Pack defense plays close to how it performed
at Minnesota, it's a winner.
Prediction: PACKERS, 23-14
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Eagles:
There are still no truly reliable offensive starters.
The RB situation continues to change around, and
the WRs have only one TD catch - none by its best
guy, Todd Pinkston. Beware.
Packers:
QB Brett Favre and RB Ahman Green are auto plays,
especially at home. WR Donald Driver has been less
of a factor lately, but still rates a go if he's
your second or third guy. On a hunch, play the defense.
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Eagles:
RB Brian Westbrook (out)
DL Hollis Thomas (out)
DB Brian Dawkins (ques)
Packers:
none
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