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Predictions & Projections
By David M. Dorey
 
The Huddle
WEEK 11
November 12, 2003
Season Ticket
Sun 1 PM Sun 1 PM Sun 1 PM Sun 4 PM Sun 8:30 PM
ARZ at CLE JAX at TEN WAS at CAR NYJ at IND DAL at NE
ATL at NO KC at CIN Sun 4 PM GB at TB Mon 9 PM
BAL at MIA NYG at PHI DET at SEA MIN at OAK PIT at SF
HOU at BUF STL at CHI SD at DEN Updated Times EST
   
Green Bay vs Tampa Bay Sun, Nov 16; 4 PM on FOX at Raymond James Stadium
  Green Bay Rush Catch Pass
QB Brett Favre 0 0 200,1
RB Ahman Green 120,1 30 0
TE Walls/Franks 0 30 0
WR Javon Walker 0 50,1 0
WR Donald Driver 0 60 0
WR Robert Ferguson 0 20 0
  Tampa Bay Rush Catch Pass
QB Brad Johnson 0 0 240,2
RB Michael Pittman 60 40 0
TE Ken Dilger Q Q Q
WR Keyshawn Johnson 0 70,1 0
WR Keenan McCardell Q Q Q

Game Prediction: GB 20, TB 23

Update: McCardell strained a hamstring in practice on Thursday and is now questionable to play. Since it just happened, more will be known on Friday and Saturday but I am lowering his numbers now. He may not play at all and he may play only slightly limited against a pretty bad secondary.

The Bucs may end up activating Joe Jurevicius for the game even though he is also considered questionable and has not played since week two due to his knee injury. This situation will hopefully be resolved in the next day or two and not become a gametime decision. There is little hope that Reggie Barlow or Karl Williams will pick up the significant slack of McCardell.

This will be a good test to see how things have changed. When these two play each other, the last ten times the home team has won. The Packers are on the road after a disappointing loss on Monday night and have a short week to prepare. The Bucs come off a tough loss but gain an advantage by having a great passing attack going against a bad secondary.

Ahman Green will gain his yards and try to avoid the 137 times defenders try to strip the ball, but the game slightly favors the home team versus the road team on a short week. This is a coin toss game and should be an exciting finish to watch.

Green Bay Notes

The Packers fall to 4-5 on the season with the loss to the Eagles.

Quarterbacks: Brett Favre had a rough time last Monday night in the cold rain in Green Bay and only managed 109 yards and one touchdown in the game with one interception. He handed the ball off 35 times while only attempting 25 passes. It was a big defensive battle with Ahman Green as the showcase last week and Favre turned in his first game without multiple touchdowns in seven weeks.

Running backs: Ahman Green had a career best 192 yards rushing against the Eagles and had touchdowns both running and receiving. He added 32 yards with three catches but in spite of the tremendous effort, he still gets a big knock for losing two fumbles in the game. He is now tied with Tiki Barber with five as the biggest fumblers.

Much like in New York with Barber, there is no expectation of lessening his load - he pretty much carried the entire game last week and has five 100 yard games this season.

Wide Receivers: In the rain last week no one mattered but Ahman Green. The wideouts only had seven catches for 58 yards evenly divided among the four players. It seems incredible that after ten weeks not one wideout for Green Bay has had over 100 yards receiving.

Tight Ends: Wesley Walls had two catches last week and Bubba Franks had one which is about average no matter what the weather is.

Match against the defense: The Buccaneers can be ran on and have allowed big yardage games to Stephen Davis (142), Garrison Hearst (117) and Deuce McAllister (110). Ahman Green certainly falls into that grouping in terms of ability and LB Derrick Brooks has a right wrist sprain that will make him questionable for this Sunday as well along with LB Dwayne Rudd who is nursing a knee sprain. Green should have some success running the ball.

The Buccaneers have been giving up the pass lately as well, but mostly when they are on the road. They could not stop Jake Delhomme in Carolina last week and were carved up in San Francisco. At home they have held all opponent quarterbacks to less than 150 yards except, of course, for Peyton Manning.

Farve will have limited success against them but the game plan will clearly favor running the ball in order to gain ground and use up the clock. The Packers are weak in their secondary and do not want to allow Brad Johnson to shred them.

Tampa Bay Notes

The Buccaneers finally broke their win-loss-win-loss streak but did so on the "loss" side last week when they could not stop the Panthers passing attack. Tampa Bay falls to only 4-5 on the season.

Quarterbacks: Other than the one blowout of the Cowboys, Brad Johnson has been tremendous this season, gaining 275 yards and two scores last week. That makes the sixth time he has thrown for multiple touchdowns and seven times he has exceeded 238 yards passing. He has thrown at least one score in every game.

Running backs: Michael Pittman had a respectable 50 yards rushing on 12 carries last week and added 47 more on five catches. He has been good for around 100 total yards the past seven weeks.

Wide Receivers: Keyshawn Johnson gained 80 yards and a score on five catches last week while Keenan McCardell had nine receptions for 118 yards and one score. While Keyshawn has been inconsistent, McCardell has six touchdowns in the past eight games and logged three 100 yard efforts.

Karl Williams will be questionable to play this week with a right ankle sprain,

Tight Ends: Never had a catch last week. The team has just added back Ricky Dudley to the team and Ken Dilger is questionable this week with a elbow strain.

Match against the defense: The Packers have only an average rushing defense which matches well with the average rushing attack of Michael Pittman.

Where the major advantage comes into play is the poor pass defense of the Packers against the red hot Brad Johnson and Keenan McCardell. This will end up the difference in the game.

Team Comparisons - Current team rankings (1-32) for FF points scored or allowed by position
Rank (1-32)
QB
RB
WR
TE
PK
DEF
GB Scores
12
1
27
8
12
31
TB Allows
12
9
26
4
5
22
GB AP
0
8
-1
-4
-7
-9
Rank (1-32)
QB
RB
WR
TE
PK
DEF
TB Scores
5
16
7
6
29
5
GB Allows
32
16
25
22
32
8
TB AP
27
0
18
16
3
3
Offensive ranks = #1 gains most points, Defensive ranks = #1 allows least points
AP = Advantage Points, the net difference between a positional rank gained or allowed by the teams.
GB
TB
2003 Game Averages
TB
GB
Gains
Allows
QB's
Gains
Allows
209
219
Pass yards
258
249
2.0
1.1
Pass TDs
2.1
1.4
0.9
1.7
Interceptions
1.1
0.9
1
8
Rush yards
7
23
0
0.0
Rush TDs
0.0
0.6
----- 
---
RB's
---
----- 
164
84
Rush yards
95
100
1.3
0.7
Rush TDs
0.3
0.6
62
32
Receive yards
62
34
1.0
0.0
Receive TD's
0.3
0.1
----- 
---
WR's
---
----- 
111
161
Receive yards
162
169
0.6
1.1
Receive TD's
1.1
1.0
----- 
---
TE's
---
----- 
36
26
Receive yards
34
46
0.4
0.0
Receive TD's
0.6
0.3
----- 
---
PK's
---
----- 
1.3
1.1
Field Goals
0.7
2.0
3.3
2.1
Extra Points
3.0
2.7
----- 
---
DEF/ST
---
----- 
0.1
0.9
Fumbles
0.7
0.6
0.9
1.1
Interceptions
1.9
1.0
0
0.3
Touchdowns
0.3
0.1
1.7
1.6
Sacks
2.4
1.6
0
0.0
Safeties
0.0
0
Packers (4-5)
Score Opp.
25-30 MIN
31-6 DET
13-20 @ARZ
38-23 @CHI
35-13 SEA
34-40 KC
24-34 @STL
Week 8 BYE
30-27 @MIN
14-17 PHI
Week 11 @TB
Week 12 SF
Week 13 @DET
Week 14 CHI
Week 15 @SD
Week 16 @OAK
Week 17 DEN
Buccaneers (4-5)
Score Opp.
17-0 @PHI
9-12 CAR
31-10 @ATL
Week 4 BYE
35-38 IND
35-13 @WAS
7-24 @SF
16-0 DAL
14-17 NO
24-27 @CAR
Week 11 GB
Week 12 NYG
Week 13 @JAX
Week 14 @NO
Week 15 HOU
Week 16 ATL
Week 17 @TEN

* Fantasy point rankings calculated using standard Huddle fantasy points