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Predictions & Projections
By David M. Dorey
 
The Huddle
WEEK 11
November 12, 2003
Season Ticket
Sun 1 PM Sun 1 PM Sun 1 PM Sun 4 PM Sun 8:30 PM
ARZ at CLE JAX at TEN WAS at CAR NYJ at IND DAL at NE
ATL at NO KC at CIN Sun 4 PM GB at TB Mon 9 PM
BAL at MIA NYG at PHI DET at SEA MIN at OAK PIT at SF
HOU at BUF STL at CHI SD at DEN Updated Times EST
   
Houston vs Buffalo Sun, Nov 16; 1 PM on CBS at Ralph Wilson Stadium
  Houston Rush Catch Pass
QB David Carr 0 0 170,1
RB Domanick Davis 80,1 10 0
TE Billy Miller 0 20,1 0
WR Corey Bradford 0 40 0
WR Andre Johnson 0 60 0
WR Jabar Gaffney 0 40 0
  Buffalo Rush Catch Pass
QB Drew Bledsoe 0 0 190,1
RB Travis Henry 130,2 20 0
TE M. Campbell 0 20 0
WR Eric Moulds 0 80,1 0
WR Josh Reed 0 40 0
WR Bobby Shaw 0 20 0

Game Prediction: HOU 14, BUF 24

The Bills should be able to run well the entire game and with Bledsoe struggling lately, that fits nicely into the game plan. The Texans will also see some success running, but will lose the field position battle since the Bills can defend the pass better.

Houston Notes

The Texans fall to 3-6 with their loss to the Bengals.

Quarterbacks: David Carr returned from his ankle sprain last week and while he threw for two scores, he only completed 11 of 25 for 146 yards with an interception. Take away the 73-yard touchdown and the numbers are far worse. Carr said his ankle is fine now but had some problems later in the game getting his feet properly set on passes.

Running backs: Domanick Davis ran well again, gaining his third 100 yard rushing game last week and averaging 102 yards rushing in his four starts. Davis has been starting slowly in games the past two weeks and gained 82 of his 104 against the Bengals during the second half.

Stacey Mack was held out last week since he is still bothered by his hyper-extended knee. He is expected to get an MRI this week.

Wide Receivers: Last week Jabar Gaffney and Andre Johnson combined for only five catches and 38 yards and the only decent play in the entire game from the crew was Corey Bradford scoring on a 73-yard pass. The Texans were so impressed with his one catch that they threw the ball to Bradford seven times in the game but he never caught another. Andre Johnson has not scored since week two and Gaffney has a 61 yard game as his best of the season.

Tight Ends: Billy Miller came off consecutive games with touchdowns and only had one catch for 11 yards last week. He actually fared better with Banks as the quarterback.

Match against the defense: Domanick Davis goes against a defense that has allowed only Ricky Williams to gain over 100 yards this year but hidden within that is the fact that teams have been fairly successful rushing against them when they have a good ground game. More importantly, they have been gashed by runners more of Davis size and style. Priest Holmes scored three times against them and both PHI and CIN scored on the ground as well as visitors there.

The Bills have been good against the pass at home and only yielded one passing score to the Redskins in week seven. Otherwise, there have been no passing scores against them at home and no quarterback there has gone over 225 yards passing. With the passing game still struggling for the Texans, Carr and company will have a problem getting much done in the air and will, as always, rely on Davis to heat up and make a game of it.

Buffalo Notes

The Bills fall to 4-5 and have lost their last two games. They are three games out of first and sinking fast.

Quarterbacks: Drew Bledsoe seemingly gets worse each game. He only managed 104 yards and two interceptions against the Cowboys even though Eric Moulds was back on the field. He has not thrown a multiple touchdown game but once this season way back in week two. With a lack of pass protection and a case of the drops hitting the receivers, the scenario here is not good.

Running backs: Going against one of the best run defenses in the league, Travis Henry gained four yards a carry last week in Dallas but only had 21 runs. Henry is one of those runners that is as good as the defense is bad. This week - going to be some good numbers again.

Wide Receivers: Eric Moulds was said to be completely healthy last week, but his five catches for 32 yards did little to prove it. Josh Reed has been getting at least seven throws a game the past month and had only one decent game to show for it. He ended with only 30 yards on four catches last week and has been dropping balls lately. Bobby Shaw started the season as a valuable #3 receiver but has done little in the last three weeks where his combined total has been seven catches for 45 yards.

Tight Ends: Mark Campbell was also off the mark last week with only one catch, but is normally good for about three receptions and 20 yards or so a game.

Match against the defense: The good news here is that the Bills face a defense that has given up 335 yards rushing in the past two games, including allowing Rudi Johnson to set a Texan's record (the bad kind) when he gained 182 last week. Lately everyone runs well against the Texans and this should be one of Henry's better games this season.

With the running lanes open, Bledsoe will not need to pass as much which could lead to a more efficient game and possibly better scoring as well. Look for Moulds to be the primary target and for Shaw and Reed to offer less.

Team Comparisons - Current team rankings (1-32) for FF points scored or allowed by position
Rank (1-32)
QB
RB
WR
TE
PK
DEF
HOU Scores
17
10
18
14
32
32
BUF Allows
3
17
8
27
18
31
HOU AP
-14
7
-10
13
-14
-1
Rank (1-32)
QB
RB
WR
TE
PK
DEF
BUF Scores
29
28
25
30
31
28
HOU Allows
17
20
31
6
15
23
BUF AP
-12
-8
6
-24
-16
5
Offensive ranks = #1 gains most points, Defensive ranks = #1 allows least points
AP = Advantage Points, the net difference between a positional rank gained or allowed by the teams.
HOU
BUF
2003 Game Averages
BUF
HOU
Gains
Allows
QB's
Gains
Allows
206
170
Pass yards
189
223
1.3
1.1
Pass TDs
0.4
1.4
0.9
0.4
Interceptions
1.6
0.9
12
12
Rush yards
2
5
0.1
0.0
Rush TDs
0.1
0.0
---
---
RB's
---
---
107
105
Rush yards
83
107
1.0
1.0
Rush TDs
0.4
0.9
42
17
Receive yards
26
34
0.0
0.0
Receive TD's
0.1
0.0
---
---
WR's
---
---
130
117
Receive yards
141
164
1.0
0.6
Receive TD's
0.3
1.3
---
---
TE's
---
---
35
36
Receive yards
22
25
0.3
0.6
Receive TD's
0.0
0.1
---
---
PK's
---
---
0.6
1.7
Field Goals
1.1
1.3
2.4
2.1
Extra Points
1.1
2.9
---
---
DEF/ST
---
---
0.6
1.1
Fumbles
0.4
0.7
1.0
1.6
Interceptions
0.4
1.1
0.0
0.0
Touchdowns
0.1
0.4
0.6
3.4
Sacks
1.3
1.3
0.0
0.0
Safeties
0.1
0.0
Texans (3-6)
Score Opp.
21-20 @MIA
10-31 @NO
14-42 KC
24-20 JAX
Week 5 BYE
17-38 @TEN
14-19 NYJ
21-30 @IND
14-10 CAR
27-34 @CIN
Week 11 @BUF
Week 12 NE
Week 13 ATL
Week 14 @JAX
Week 15 @TB
Week 16 TEN
Week 17 IND
Bills (4-5)
Score Opp.
31-0 NE
38-17 @JAX
7-17 @MIA
13-23 PHI
22-16 CIN
3-30 @NYJ
24-7 WAS
5-38 @KC
Week 9 BYE
6-10 @DAL
Week 11 HOU
Week 12 IND
Week 13 @NYG
Week 14 NYJ
Week 15 @TEN
Week 16 MIA
Week 17 @NE

* Fantasy point rankings calculated using standard Huddle fantasy points