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Predictions & Projections
By David M. Dorey
 
The Huddle
WEEK 11
November 12, 2003
Season Ticket
Sun 1 PM Sun 1 PM Sun 1 PM Sun 4 PM Sun 8:30 PM
ARZ at CLE JAX at TEN WAS at CAR NYJ at IND DAL at NE
ATL at NO KC at CIN Sun 4 PM GB at TB Mon 9 PM
BAL at MIA NYG at PHI DET at SEA MIN at OAK PIT at SF
HOU at BUF STL at CHI SD at DEN Updated Times EST
   
Jacksonville vs Tennessee Sun, Nov 16; 1 PM on CBS at The Coliseum
  Jacksonville Rush Catch Pass
QB Byron Leftwich 0 0 260,2
RB Fred Taylor 60 10 0
TE Brady / Wrighster 0 30,1 0
WR Jimmy Smith 0 100,1 0
WR Cortez Hankton 0 30 0
WR Troy Edwards 0 60 0
  Tennessee Rush Catch Pass
QB Steve McNair 20,1 0 240,2
RB Eddie George 80,1 10 0
TE Erron Kinney 0 20 0
WR Derrick Mason 0 80,1 0
WR Justin McCareins 0 50 0
WR Tyrone Calico 0 60,1 0

Game Prediction: JAX 14, TEN 31

Tennessee beat the Jaguars handily only two games ago with only a bye week and a slapping of the Dolphins since they last played each other. The score then was 30-17 but the game was never that close.

The Jaguars come off a big win over the Colts and are due for a let down while the Titans look like a team that is starting to peak. McNair has lost his passing lead in the NFL and should need to throw more this week than the last time they played.

Jacksonville Notes

The Jaguars rise to 2-7 with their big win over the Colts.

Quarterbacks: Byron Leftwich comes off a 179 yard, one touchdown game against the Colt and finally had a game in the NFL where he had no turnovers. He also rushed in a score. Leftwich had three interceptions and one score in week eight when these teams met and threw for only 158 yards before being pulled from that game.

Running backs: Fred Taylor went into last week wanting to punish the Colts for playing rough the last time and ended up shredding them for 152 yards and two touchdowns. It was Taylor's first 100 yard game since week 3 and this week he heads to Tennessee to face the team that held him to only 48 yards on nine carries three weeks ago.

Wide Receivers: Jimmy Smith (4-87, 1 TD) is understandably a favorite of Leftwich, but Troy Edwards (3-18) has seen a slight decline is productivity. When Edwards played against the Titans the last time, he had four catches for 63 yards while Smith only had three grabs for 60 yards though Smith did score once in that game.

Tight Ends: While Kyle Brady is always good for a pass or two each game, George Wrighster is being used again after not catching any balls for a couple of games.

Match against the defense: As noted, these two teams just played only three weeks ago.

The Jaguars were throttled 30-17 and fell behind too early for Fred Taylor to matter. No reason to expect that will change in Tennessee this time around.

Byron Leftwich gets his chance to make up for this three interceptions in the week eight game, but will face a secondary that also intercepted Griese three times last week. Leftwich's numbers will be more contingent on slop time than game winning drives.

Tennessee Notes

The Titans rise to 7-2 and are tied now with the Colts for the AFC South lead.

Quarterbacks: Steve McNair comes off a 17 of 23 for 201 yard game against the Dolphins where he threw two early touchdowns and then coasted to a win. The Titans already led 21-0 at the half so McNair was content to just handoff the ball and kill the clock. When these two teams last played, McNair had 187 yards and one score.

Running backs: The Titans were so dominant over the Dolphins last week that Eddie George scored once on his 15 carries for 43 yards and then they allowed Chris Brown to take 12 runs for 46 yards. It was the first game experience for Brown since week six and easily the most work he has received. When these teams played last, George had 88 yards rushing and two scores. Last year in two games, George scored three times against the Jaguars.

Wide Receivers: The Titan passing attack started out so hot that they had the early lead and stopped throwing. Derrick Mason (6-98) led receivers with both Justin McCareins (3-53) and Tyrone Calico (3-26) scoring touchdowns before the game turned into the Eddie and Chris running show.

Tight Ends: Frank Wycheck (2-16) played in only his third game this year and actually had more catches than Erron Kinney (1-11) for the first time this season. Kinney had four catches for 32 yards when they last played the Jaguars.

Match against the defense: The Titans are starting to peak but even though they easily handled the Jaguars last time, knowing that Jacksonville comes off a win over the Colts is enough to keep their focus.

As noted, Eddie George has always scored against the Jaguars for the past several games and McNair will throw only as much as is needed. The previous matchup was slanted with the three interceptions by Leftwich that allowed Tennessee to use good field position and the run to win. This time around McNair should be throwing more and continuing to use McCareins and Calico in the scheme. Calico had the lone passing score the last time they played the Jags.

Team Comparisons - Current team rankings (1-32) for FF points scored or allowed by position
Rank (1-32)
QB
RB
WR
TE
PK
DEF
JAX Scores
10
6
19
24
21
23
TEN Allows
24
11
29
17
3
5
JAX AP
14
5
10
-7
-18
-18
Rank (1-32)
QB
RB
WR
TE
PK
DEF
TEN Scores
3
25
2
19
3
2
JAX Allows
22
13
19
25
31
29
TEN AP
19
-12
17
6
28
27
Offensive ranks = #1 gains most points, Defensive ranks = #1 allows least points
AP = Advantage Points, the net difference between a positional rank gained or allowed by the teams.
JAX
TEN
2003 Game Averages
TEN
JAX
Gains
Allows
QB's
Gains
Allows
225
271
Pass yards
261
226
1.1
1.3
Pass TDs
1.9
1.4
1.4
1.1
Interceptions
0.3
1.1
7
4
Rush yards
9
5
0.3
0.0
Rush TDs
0.4
0.1
---
---
RB's
---
---
107
66
Rush yards
87
82
0.6
0.6
Rush TDs
0.7
0.7
51
54
Receive yards
21
39
0.4
0.1
Receive TD's
0.0
0.0
---
---
WR's
---
---
148
173
Receive yards
206
139
0.6
1.0
Receive TD's
1.7
1.1
---
---
TE's
---
---
26
44
Receive yards
34
48
0.1
0.1
Receive TD's
0.1
0.3
---
---
PK's
---
---
1.3
1.0
Field Goals
2.0
2.0
2.1
2.0
Extra Points
3.6
2.6
---
---
DEF/ST
---
---
0.9
0.3
Fumbles
1.1
1.3
1.1
0.3
Interceptions
1.4
1.6
0.0
0.4
Touchdowns
0.6
0.1
0.9
1.0
Sacks
2.7
2.0
0.0
0.1
Safeties
0.1
0.0
Jaguars (2-7)
Score Opp.
23-24 @CAR
17-38 BUF
13-23 @IND
20-24 @HOU
27-21 SD
10-24 MIA
Week 7 BYE
17-30 TEN
17-24 @BAL
28-23 IND
Week 11 @TEN
Week 12 @NYJ
Week 13 TB
Week 14 HOU
Week 15 @NE
Week 16 NO
Week 17 @ATL
Tennessee (7-2)
Score Opp.
25-20 OAK
7-33 @IND
27-12 NO
30-13 @PIT
30-38 @NE
38-17 HOU
37-17 @CAR
31-7 @JAX
Week 9 BYE
30-17 MIA
Week 11 JAX
Week 12 @ATL
Week 13 @NYJ
Week 14 IND
Week 15 BUF
Week 16 @HOU
Week 17 TB

* Fantasy point rankings calculated using standard Huddle fantasy points