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Predictions & Projections
By David M. Dorey
 
The Huddle
WEEK 11
November 12, 2003
Season Ticket
Sun 1 PM Sun 1 PM Sun 1 PM Sun 4 PM Sun 8:30 PM
ARZ at CLE JAX at TEN WAS at CAR NYJ at IND DAL at NE
ATL at NO KC at CIN Sun 4 PM GB at TB Mon 9 PM
BAL at MIA NYG at PHI DET at SEA MIN at OAK PIT at SF
HOU at BUF STL at CHI SD at DEN Updated Times EST
   
NY Jets vs Indianapolis Sun, Nov 16; 4 PM on CBS at RCA Dome
  New York Jets Rush Catch Pass
QB Chad Pennington 0 0 250,2
RB Curtis Martin 70 20 0
RB Lamont Jordan 30,1 10 0
TE Anthony Becht 0 20,1 0
WR Wayne Chrebet IR IR IR
WR Kevin Swayne 0 20 0
WR Curtis Conway 0 60 0
WR Santana Moss 0 100,1 0
  Indianapolis Rush Catch Pass
QB Peyton Manning 0 0 240,1
RB Edgerrin James 110,1 20 0
TE Marcus Pollard 0 50 0
TE Dallas Clark 0 20 0
WR Troy Walters 0 60,1 0
WR Marvin Harrison D D D
WR Reggie Wayne 0 60 0

Game Prediction: NYJ 21, IND 23

Update: Wayne Chrebet has been placed on IR and will be replaced by Kevin Swayne and possibly Jonathan Carter. Neither of those have shown much this season.

Marvin Harrison is considered doubtful to play with his hamstring strain. He claims it does not hurt but the MRI has shown damage (though Grade 1 - minimal). I am removing him from the projections as he currently represents a big risk to even play as the Colts may give their star receiver a week to heal. Troy Walters moves up in that case to take Harrison's role.

This game takes a whole new flavor if Harrison cannot play, but assuming that he does and yet is a little limited, the Colts can still take a win by running James all game against a soft rushing defense and keeping Pennington off the field.

NY Jets Notes

The Jets rise to 3-6 on the season and are still in the basement of the AFC East.

Quarterbacks: Chad Pennington followed up his 281 yard, four touchdown opener against the Giants with a 269 yard, two score game against the Raiders last week. One big difference - he had two interceptions the first week and none last Sunday. Pennington is losing the rust quickly.

Running backs: The Raiders offered a poor rush defense and the Jets were able to abuse it with Curtis Martin (19-61) and Lamont Jordan (7-69) combining for a big day. Since Pennington has been back, the Jets have been almost doubling their rushing yards.

Wide Receivers: Santana Moss followed his big 121 yard, three touchdown game against the Giants with a 146 yard, one score effort against the Raiders. He led the league in receiving yards last week and with 474 yards and six touchdowns in the last four weeks, everyone knows he is coming.

Wayne Chrebet is considered out again this week due to a concussion but could change later in the week. Kevin Swayne is now the #3 receiver which in New York does not even promise a single catch.

Tight Ends: Anthony Becht and occasionally Chris Baker make the odd catch though Becht had a two pointer and score a touchdown a few weeks ago.

Match against the defense: The Colts rushing defense just seems to get worse each game and while they allowed Fred Taylor 126 yards in week three, they granted him 152 and two touchdowns last week in what proved to be the winning margin for the Jaguars. Before that, Domanick Davis had 109 yards and two scores. Before that Stephen Davis and Deshaun Foster combined for 161 yards and a score.

While Curtis Martin may not be quite the back of old, with Pennington throwing so well he could be close. The mixing of Jordan and Martin was effective and should work against a worsening run defense.

Most passers have not fared so well against the Colts because the run has been doing so well. The Colts have given up at least one passing score every week since week one so Pennington should do at least average and could turn in one of the better production days if Moss stays open and the Jets have to throw to stay in the game.

Last week the Colts defense had no turnovers and no interceptions from Leftwich, the first time ever for him as a starting quarterback in the NFL.

Indianapolis Notes

The Colts come off a frustrating loss to the Panthers and fall to 7-2 which ties them with the Titans in the AFC South.

Quarterbacks: Peyton Manning had 347 yards passing and two touchdowns last week but threw two interceptions and could not move the team late when it was needed. With Marvin Harrison out of the equation, the passing was not nearly as effective. In the final two minutes, it was evident that Harrison was not there. Manning is still the fantasy gem, but the team was not able to secure a win when it needed to late in the game.

Running backs: Edgerrin James only gained 44 yards on 15 carries last week. He was not even on the field for the final two offensive series and had only limited play in the second half. James was clearly miffed this week that the coaches went more with Ricky Williams later in the game because they felt Williams would do better as a pass catcher.

Facing the 29th ranked rush defense should help Edgerrin's feelings this week.

Wide Receivers: Marvin Harrison only had one catch last week - a 30 yard touchdown, and then left the game in the second quarter with a hamstring strain. His status is still not known and I am assuming that he will play this week but that could change. Reggie Wayne only had six catches for 46 yards last week against the same team he had burned for 141 yards and two scores back in week three.

Troy Walters (5-73) has been a great #3 receiver and has actually outproduced Wayne the past three weeks.

Tight Ends: Marcus Pollard had three catches for 92 yards and one score to lead all receivers last week and Dallas Clark finally returned to the playing field and had two catches for 43 yards. Pollard has been a solid receiver while Clark was out and still shined even with Clark in the lineup.

Match against the defense: Much depends on the presence of Harrison this week who changes the focus of the defense.

It is easy to guess that Edgerrin James will be placated with 20+ carries this week against a rush defense that has been one of the worst and still misses DE John Abraham. James only has two 100 yard games this season but should up it to three after this week.

The Colts should be able to pass more as well since CB Ray Mickens may be out and he was already covering for the injured Donnie Abraham. Since he would matchup on Harrison, there is a reason for Marvin to get better. Otherwise, Troy Walters should take some benefit from it.

Team Comparisons - Current team rankings (1-32) for FF points scored or allowed by position
Rank (1-32)
QB
RB
WR
TE
PK
DEF
NYJ Scores
11
17
6
18
8
18
IND Allows
14
25
12
20
11
3
NYJ AP
3
8
6
2
3
-15
Rank (1-32)
QB
RB
WR
TE
PK
DEF
IND Scores
2
18
3
3
1
19
NYJ Allows
4
29
4
10
9
16
IND AP
2
11
1
7
8
-3
Offensive ranks = #1 gains most points, Defensive ranks = #1 allows least points
AP = Advantage Points, the net difference between a positional rank gained or allowed by the teams.
NYJ
IND
2003 Game Averages
IND
NYJ
Gains
Allows
QB's
Gains
Allows
230
201
Pass yards
301
194
1.7
1.3
Pass TDs
2.4
0.7
0.6
0.9
Interceptions
0.9
0.6
2
6
Rush yards
1
5
0.0
0.1
Rush TDs
0.0
0.1
---
---
RB's
---
---
105
128
Rush yards
85
136
0.4
1.0
Rush TDs
0.7
1.0
47
35
Receive yards
35
44
0.1
0.0
Receive TD's
0.3
0.1
---
---
WR's
---
---
158
116
Receive yards
201
111
1.3
1.1
Receive TD's
1.7
0.6
---
---
TE's
---
---
26
50
Receive yards
65
39
0.3
0.1
Receive TD's
0.4
0.0
---
---
PK's
---
---
1.9
1.1
Field Goals
2.4
1.3
2.1
2.7
Extra Points
3.3
2.1
---
---
DEF/ST
---
---
0.7
0.7
Fumbles
0.9
0.9
0.6
0.7
Interceptions
0.6
0.4
0.0
0.0
Touchdowns
0.1
0.3
3.1
0.9
Sacks
1.9
2.0
0.0
0.0
Safeties
0.0
0.0
Jets (3-6)
Score Opp.
13-16 @WAS
10-21 MIA
16-23 @NE
6-17 DAL
Week 5 BYE
30-3 BUF
19-14 @HOU
17-24 @PHI
28-31 NYG
27-24 @OAK
Week 11 @IND
Week 12 JAX
Week 13 TEN
Week 14 @BUF
Week 15 PIT
Week 16 NE
Week 17 @MIA
Colts (7-2)
Score Opp.
9-6 @CLE
33-7 TEN
23-13 JAX
55-21 @NO
38-35 @TB
20-23 CAR
Week 7 BYE
30-21 HOU
23-17 @MIA
23-28 @JAX
Week 11 NYJ
Week 12 @BUF
Week 13 NE
Week 14 @TEN
Week 15 ATL
Week 16 DEN
Week 17 @HOU

* Fantasy point rankings calculated using standard Huddle fantasy points