Trading players is one of the more difficult things
to accomplish in a fantasy football season. It’s
challenging to agree with another owner at the same time
about the relative values of players in an exchange,
especially in multiple-player deals. It’s even
harder sometimes to let go of your own players, especially
if they have single-handedly won a game for you. Still,
since beneficial trades often springboard a team to success
in the second half of the fantasy season (the one that
includes the playoffs) it is worth your time to pursue
outstanding swaps.
There is no bad time to make a good trade, but there
are better times in the football season, and in the course
of your fantasy year, to make changes to
your lineup. Injuries, slumps and even scheduling create optimal moments
to trade for certain players or trade away guys on your
own team. Below are some
of the most powerful trading points in a season. Take advantage of them to
make a favorable transaction.
Bust or Breakout
A good time to make a trade is just before a player
strings together enough games that everyone realizes
he is having his breakout year. These are players you
probably targeted in your draft, but just couldn’t
get. After all, you only have so many picks and can’t
tab every player you think is going to perform better
than most expect. The key here is to watch for players
who still aren’t known commodities and determine
whether they will continue to bear out a hot start. An
example this year is Chad Johnson. This Bengal went on
a rampage late last year, collecting a ton of yards,
but didn’t score many touchdowns and didn’t
get rated highly enough by owners this year. So, after
he had one or two good games it was time to trade for
him. Now, he is a number one fantasy receiver, and harder
to get at a good value.
The other side of this type of trading is noticing
when a player is going to have a bust year. Amos Zereoue
illustrates
this idea perfectly. Many people thought this was the
year Zereoue zipped past Jerome Bettis to be the full-time
starter and a fantasy stud. After only one or two games,
it was clear Bettis would remain a key cog in the offensive
game plan. Jerome even regained the starter tag a few
weeks ago. Anyone who still retains Zereoue on a roster
has a player not worth starting who also has little
trade value. The time to trade him was when he seemed
to still
have promise this season.
Breakouts and Busts do happen in-season too. Players
are often affected by the loss or return of key injured
teammates. Santana Moss has played well this year,
but particularly with Chad Pennington now in the lineup.
Kerry Collins could see his numbers dip with the sudden
departure of his dependable tight end Jeremy Shockey.
In
Harm’s Way
Injuries happen at any time, and you should be ready
to make appropriate trade offers when they occur. Obviously,
a good time to make a trade is when you have a starting
player hurt badly enough that he will miss more than
a month of football. Owners of the aforementioned Jeremy
Shockey should retain him if they can, but must find
a replacement that is adequate. Losing a player such
as Shockey brings a significant loss of value to a position.
On the other hand (which may be a healthy choice since
we are dealing with
injuries) it can be advantageous to make offers for injured players if you
can absorb the impact it takes to trade for them. Anyone who landed Marshall
Faulk in a trade while he was down and out should be feeling pretty good
by now. Owners will give up on stars a lot more easily
when the immediate prospects
for a return on the investment are zero.
By the Bye
Once you have decided to jettison a player, try to
coincide the trade with the week leading up to that player’s
bye. It’s a good time to get rid of someone because
it means that you are using your new value while your
trade partner cannot. This is especially effective if
you are in a head to head matchup with your trade partner
that week.
Squeeze value from circumstance by going for another
owner’s star player
who just had his bye week. You may get a better deal because the player you
are trading for has been “out of sight, out of mind”, at least
for one week. As a bonus, many players have a terrific game the first week
back from their bye because they are refreshed.
Atypical Box Score
When making trade decisions, look to make offers based
on aberrant performances by players. Just after an average
starter has a career game is the time to put him on the
trading block. It might net you a better player just
because it looks like your guy is trending up.
Try to trade for another team’s stud following
an atrocious outing – one of those 10 carries for
14 yards and no touchdown days. Any owner knows one bad
game is not a sign of the apocalypse, but the poor effort
will weigh on the owner’s mind regardless, even
if imperceptibly.
Streaks
Another good time to make a trade is when your winning
team has suddenly begun an extended losing streak. A
severe shakeup can be just what is required to stop the
bleeding. Look to trade for players with great second-half
matchups.
Use the same trade to start a winning steak, particularly
when you are in the middle of the fantasy rat pack, pushing
for playoff time. A key hot spell from
a player or two can get you the wins necessary to win your division, or perform
well in a points league.
Joe Levit, based in Boston, writes for www.cnnsi.com and
www.thehuddle.com. He is a member of the Pro Football
Writers of America and a devoted Detroit Lions fan.
He can be contacted at lavishjetpoet@aol.com.