VOTED #1 FANTASY FOOTBALL SITE
1998, 1999, 2000, 2001 & 2002
PRIORITY NEWS   MESSAGE BOARDS JOIN   
HOME ARTICLES STATISTICS WEEKLY FEATURES TEAM LINKS NFL RESOURCES  
Predictions & Projections
By David M. Dorey
 
The Huddle
WEEK 12
November 19, 2003
Season Ticket
Sun 1 PM Sun 1 PM Sun 1 PM Sun 4 PM Sun 8:30 PM
CAR at DAL NE at HOU SF at GB CHI at DEN WAS at MIA
DET at MIN NO at PHI Sun 4 PM OAK at KC Mon 9 PM
IND at BUF PIT at CLE CIN at SD TEN at ATL NYG at TB
JAX at NYJ SEA at BAL STL at ARZ *updated Times EST
   
Indianapolis vs Buffalo Sun, Nov 23; 1 PM on CBS at Ralph Wilson Stadium
  Indianapolis Rush Catch Pass
QB Peyton Manning 0 0 250,1
RB Edgerrin James 80,1 10 0
TE Joe Dean Davenport 0 20 0
TE Dallas Clark 0 50 0
WR Aaron Moorehead 0 40 0
WR Troy Walters Q Q Q
WR Marvin Harrison Q Q Q
WR Reggie Wayne 0 80,1 0
  Buffalo Rush Catch Pass
QB Drew Bledsoe 0 0 180,1
RB Travis Henry Q Q Q
RB Joe Burns 50 0 0
RB Sammy Morris 20 20 0
TE M. Campbell 0 20 0
WR Eric Moulds Q Q Q
WR Josh Reed 0 60 0
WR Bobby Shaw 0 80,1 0

Game Prediction: IND 23, BUF 10

Update: Troy Walters has not practiced and is not expected to play.

Marvin Harrison also has not practiced but is expected to work on today. Since HC Tony Dungy wants to see him practice and then how well he feels on Saturday afterwards, this is smacking of another gametime decision. Since Harrison has not practiced the entire week and was unable to play last week, I am not projecting numbers for him though he could end up being active for the game. How well he plays will obviously depend on his gametime health though he does make one of the best decoys in the game no matter what.

Eric Moulds is another player that is questionable and has not practiced this week after missing the game last Sunday. He plans on testing his groin on Friday and the decision on his status may also extend to gametime as it did last week. I am not projecting for him either since he has not practiced and would play less than 100% in the best case scenario.

Travis Henry has not practiced and wore a boot this week to help his leg that has a cracked bone. He too is questionable and the decision on his status will not be final until possibly gametime though he seems less likely to play and would not be 100% if he does. Joe Burns was named the starting running back if Henry cannot play though Sammy Morris would remain the third down back and play in pass situations.

The Bills are struggling on offense and being possibly without Travis Henry is like an ice pick to the tires of a car that was sputtering anyway. The Colts defense is soft, but since the Bills look less likely to take advantage, Manning and James will be enough to keep the two teams heading in their respective directions.

Indianapolis Notes

The Colts rise to 8-2 and remain tied with the Titans in the AFC South.

Quarterbacks:: Peyton Manning already has 2876 passing yards this season to lead the NFL and has 19 passing touchdowns to lead the NFL and he is already getting tired of hearing about his little brother. Manning comes off 401 yard passing effort last week when Marvin Harrison and Marcus Pollard did not play. Not a good sign for opponents.

Running Backs: Edgerrin James was the workhorse last week, carrying the ball 36 times for 127 yards and three touchdowns. It was his first 100 yard game in a month and he scored more touchdowns than he had the entire season. Hope you played him.

Receivers: Marvin Harrison missed last week with a hamstring injury and is questionable to play this week so I am assuming he will still be out pending future developments. He did not practice on Monday. Troy Walters filled in for him last week and had 88 yards and one score before leaving the game in the third quarter with a hamstring strain as well but still had his career best game. Reggie Wayne had 141 receiving yards which is sort of freaky since his only other 100 yard game as when he gained exactly 141 against the Jaguars in week three. Aaron Moorehead had his first action of the season and caught two passes for 30 yards last week when Walters left the game. Being a receiver with Peyton Manning as your quarterback is like joining the marines and getting assigned to a post in Hawaii.

I am considering Walters as questionable this week since the extent of his injury is not yet known. Brandon Stokley may get cleared again to play this week but if you have been sitting on him hoping to see something you are not likely vying for a championship anyway.

Marcus Pollard is also not likely to return this week and I am considering him as out again. Dallas Clark and even Joe Dean Davenport will take up the slack.

Match against the Defense: The Bills defense has been pretty bad lately, allowing the big play to kill them and missing tackles both individually and even as a group. Edgerrin James could break 100 yards again against the average rushing defense if he gets 25+ carries this week which is likely given the injury situation to the receivers.

The Bills have been tough against passers in yardage, allowing only Trent Green to really have a nice game but then again - it's Manning here so all bets are off. The cornerback matchups favor Wayne a little more than Morehead/Walters/Harrison, but Buffalo has been playing so poorly as of late it is anyone's guess which receiver will get the score really.

Buffalo Notes

The Bills freefall to 4-6 on the season and have lost their last three games.

Quarterbacks:: Drew Bledsoe is struggling in a major way. He has only one game this season with more than one touchdown and that was ten weeks ago. He has gone three weeks with no passing scores and has not eclipsed 184 passing yards since week seven.

Running Backs: Travis Henry comes off his third 100 yard game of the season when he rushed for 149 yards on only 23 carries in a game that he played with a cracked fibula. Pending further news, I am assuming that Henry will be questionable to play this week and that Sammy Morris will take the start. While Henry continued to play on the leg, that is no guarantee he will do so again. This is similar to McNabb last year who also played a game with a broken leg before missing appreciable time. This is something to keep an eye on because the Colts run defense has been terrible lately.

Receivers: Eric Moulds was supposed to play last week but ended up as a game time scratch. His groin continues to bother him and he has stated that it likely will for the rest of the season. I am assuming that he will not play again this week but he might. In his place, Bobby Shaw took the start and turned in a respectable 92 yards on five catches but Josh Reed only gained 59 yards on six catches in a game where he needed to step up and did not. The passing attack was already lessened without Peerless Price this season and now that Moulds is going in and out of the lineup there is even less happening.

Mark Campbell again had a one catch game and has done nothing since the week nine bye.

Match against the Defense: This is a defense that makes offenses look good, even if the Colts can still outscore almost any team. If Henry can play, he can easily exceed 100 yards though Morris may not be quite as good if he takes the start. Whoever is the starter will have a very nice game since the Colts have already yielded six 100 yard runners for opponents and have allowed multiple rushing touchdowns twice in the past three games.

The bad news is that Bledsoe probably will not turn around his season here. While Pennington had three scores last week, he was the first to have more than one since week five and it has been six weeks since any QB has thrown for over 231 yards.

Team Comparisons - Current team rankings (1-32) for FF points scored or allowed by position
Rank (1-32)
QB
RB
WR
TE
PK
DEF
IND Scores
2
12
2
4
1
23
BUF Allows
3
15
6
28
19
30
IND AP
1
3
4
24
18
7
Rank (1-32)
QB
RB
WR
TE
PK
DEF
BUF Scores
30
27
23
30
30
29
IND Allows
18
23
17
17
9
2
BUF AP
-12
-4
-6
-13
-21
-27
Offensive ranks = #1 gains most points, Defensive ranks = #1 allows least points
AP = Advantage Points, the net difference between a positional rank gained or allowed by the teams.
IND
BUF
2003 Game Averages
BUF
IND
Gains
Allows
QB's
Gains
Allows
313
188
Pass yards
176
204
2.3
0.4
Pass TDs
1.1
1.5
0.8
1.4
Interceptions
0.5
0.8
0
2
Rush yards
10
5
0.0
0.1
Rush TDs
0.0
0.1
---
---
RB's
---
---
90
93
Rush yards
101
128
1.0
0.4
Rush TDs
0.9
0.9
35
24
Receive yards
19
37
0.3
0.1
Receive TD's
0.0
0.0
---
---
WR's
---
---
208
145
Receive yards
124
123
1.6
0.3
Receive TD's
0.6
1.4
---
---
TE's
---
---
71
20
Receive yards
33
44
0.4
0.0
Receive TD's
0.5
0.1
---
---
PK's
---
---
2.3
1.3
Field Goals
1.8
1.1
3.5
1.0
Extra Points
2.0
2.9
---
---
DEF/ST
---
---
0.8
0.4
Fumbles
1.1
0.6
0.5
0.5
Interceptions
1.4
0.6
0.1
0.1
Touchdowns
0.0
0.0
2.0
1.6
Sacks
3.5
0.9
0.0
0.4
Safeties
0.0
0.0
Colts (8-2)
Score Opp.
9-6 @CLE
33-7 TEN
23-13 JAX
55-21 @NO
38-35 @TB
20-23 CAR
Week 7 BYE
30-21 HOU
23-17 @MIA
23-28 @JAX
38-31 NYJ
Week 12 @BUF
Week 13 NE
Week 14 @TEN
Week 15 ATL
Week 16 DEN
Week 17 @HOU
Bills (4-6)
Score Opp.
31-0 NE
38-17 @JAX
7-17 @MIA
13-23 PHI
22-16 CIN
3-30 @NYJ
24-7 WAS
5-38 @KC
Week 9 BYE
6-10 @DAL
10-12 HOU
Week 12 IND
Week 13 @NYG
Week 14 NYJ
Week 15 @TEN
Week 16 MIA
Week 17 @NE

* Fantasy point rankings calculated using standard Huddle fantasy points