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Predictions & Projections
By David M. Dorey
 
The Huddle
WEEK 12
November 19, 2003
Season Ticket
Sun 1 PM Sun 1 PM Sun 1 PM Sun 4 PM Sun 8:30 PM
CAR at DAL NE at HOU SF at GB CHI at DEN WAS at MIA
DET at MIN NO at PHI Sun 4 PM OAK at KC Mon 9 PM
IND at BUF PIT at CLE CIN at SD TEN at ATL NYG at TB
JAX at NYJ SEA at BAL STL at ARZ *updated Times EST
   
Oakland vs Kansas City Sun, Nov 23; 4 PM on CBS at Arrowhead Stadium
  Oakland Rush Catch Pass
QB Rick Mirer 0 0 180
RB Charlie Garner D D D
RB Tyrone Wheatley 90 20 0
RB Zack Crockett 10,2 0 0
TE Doug Jolley 0 10 0
WR Tim Brown 0 30 0
WR Jerry Porter 0 50 0
WR Jerry Rice 0 50 0
  Kansas City Rush Catch Pass
QB Trent Green 0 0 250,2
RB Priest Holmes 120,1 30 0
TE Tony Gonzalez 0 50,1 0
WR Johnnie Morton 0 70,1 0
WR Dante Hall 0 30 0
WR Eddie Kennison 0 50 0

Game Prediction: OAK 17, KC 31

The Raiders are 0-5 on the road this season while the Chiefs are 5-0 at home and coming off their first loss. Enough said.

Oakland Notes

The Raiders rise to 3-7 with their win over the visiting Vikings.

Quarterbacks:: Last week Rick Mirer only waited until the second series to start passing and against the porous Vikings secondary he only even tried to throw the ball a total of 13 times. He completed nine and ended with 195 yards passing. The few he did throw got downfield over 20 yards almost each time. Do not get too used to that sort of production.

Running Backs: Justin Fargas damaged his medial collateral ligament in the game after only six carries for 54 yards and Tyrone Wheatley took over with a total of 32 carries for 109 yards. It was his first 100 yard game in three years. Vikings were so soft against the run that they knew was coming that they allowed Zack Crockett to gain a total of 54 yards on only six carries because he busted one for 44 yards. Crockett scored twice in the game and Wheatley had one touchdown as well.

As soft as the Chiefs rush defense has been, the good running may not be over yet. Pending news from the Raiders which they will fight not to disclose, I am assuming Fargas and Garner will be out. Updates as warranted.

Receivers: Nine receptions does not spread out very far and the Raiders are now using O.J. Santiago as well who actually led all receivers with two catches for 53 yards last week.

Match against the Defense: These teams played in week seven when the Chiefs won 17-10.

The Raiders combined Gannon and Tuiasosopo for 282 yards but that seems astronomic now.

More importantly the Raiders are running the ball now over and over and over and the Chiefs can be beaten with the run. Problem is that the run alone cannot keep up on the scoreboard. All runners could have a decent outing given sheer volumes of carries so the Chiefs will look to get a lead and force the Raiders to throw where the Kansas City defense can work on their takeaways.

Oakland has to control the scoreboard in order to play their run-run-run game.

Kansas City Notes

The Chiefs come off their first loss of the season in Cincinnati but still have the only 9-1 record in the NFL.

Quarterbacks:: Trent Green has been red hot the last three games, throwing for no less than 273 yards and two scores in that time span. Equally impressive is how he has returned to using wideouts that now account for the majority of yards and half the passing scores.

Running Backs: Priest Holmes was stymied last week when he only gained 62 yards on 16 carries and failed to score a touchdown for the first time in five games. The last time he played Oakland he had 123 yards rushing with one score and 50 more yards receiving.

Receivers: It was a losing effort last week, but the wideouts looked good in a traditional sense. Johnnie Morton had seven catches for 96 yards while Eddie Kennison turned in six receptions for 82 yards. Over half the passing yardage went to the #1 and #2 wideouts just like a normal offense. That is hard to defend when the Chiefs do it.

Tony Gonzalez scored for his third consecutive game and even Jason Dunn had one catch for a touchdown.

The Chiefs finally got caught last week but over the course of the last few games, Green is making the best use of his receivers in a long time.

Match against the Defense: As noted, these teams just played in week seven in Oakland and Priest Holmes had a big day then as he should again this week.

What will be more interesting is if Green continues his hot passing hand as he only had 206 yards and no score in their first meeting. The Oakland secondary has been shredded by Culpepper and Pennington in the past two weeks and now has Priest Holmes to worry about again.

Look for Green to better his previous mark and the Chiefs to keep scoring if they can. It is the Oakland in Arrowhead.

Team Comparisons - Current team rankings (1-32) for FF points scored or allowed by position
Rank (1-32)
QB
RB
WR
TE
PK
DEF
OAK Scores
27
10
20
9
17
15
KC Allows
12
28
4
16
8
3
OAK AP
-15
18
-16
7
-9
-12
Rank (1-32)
QB
RB
WR
TE
PK
DEF
KC Scores
5
4
17
1
8
1
OAK Allows
19
29
11
8
28
8
KC AP
14
25
-6
7
20
7
Offensive ranks = #1 gains most points, Defensive ranks = #1 allows least points
AP = Advantage Points, the net difference between a positional rank gained or allowed by the teams.
OAK
KC
2003 Game Averages
KC
OAK
Gains
Allows
QB's
Gains
Allows
217
210
Pass yards
264
185
0.6
1.0
Pass TDs
1.8
1.3
1.1
1.8
Interceptions
0.5
0.6
5
10
Rush yards
5
14
0.0
0.0
Rush TDs
0.1
0.3
---
---
RB's
---
---
104
130
Rush yards
102
141
1.1
0.8
Rush TDs
1.3
1.0
33
53
Receive yards
52
42
0.0
0.3
Receive TD's
0.0
0.3
---
---
WR's
---
---
143
128
Receive yards
142
123
0.4
0.4
Receive TD's
0.9
0.8
---
---
TE's
---
---
40
29
Receive yards
70
20
0.3
0.4
Receive TD's
0.9
0.3
---
---
PK's
---
---
1.5
1.4
Field Goals
1.3
1.8
2.0
1.9
Extra Points
3.9
2.8
---
---
DEF/ST
---
---
0.9
0.4
Fumbles
1.1
0.5
1.0
0.4
Interceptions
1.8
1.1
0.3
0.1
Touchdowns
0.5
0.0
1.4
1.3
Sacks
2.4
2.3
0.0
0.1
Safeties
0.0
0.0
Raiders (3-7)
Score Opp.
20-25 @TEN
23-20 CIN
10-31 @DEN
34-31 SD
21-24 @CHI
7-13 @CLE
10-17 KC
Week 8 BYE
13-23 @DET
24-27 NYJ
28-18 MIN
Week 12 @KC
Week 13 DEN
Week 14 @PIT
Week 15 BAL
Week 16 GB
Week 17 @SD
Chiefs (9-1)
Score Opp.
27-14 SD
41-20 PIT
42-14 @HOU
17-10 @BAL
24-23 DEN
40-34 @GB
17-10 @OAK
38-5 BUF
Week 9 BYE
41-20 CLE
19-24 @CIN
Week 12 OAK
Week 13 @SD
Week 14 @DEN
Week 15 DET
Week 16 @MIN
Week 17 CHI

* Fantasy point rankings calculated using standard Huddle fantasy points