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Predictions & Projections
By David M. Dorey
 
The Huddle
WEEK 12
November 19, 2003
Season Ticket
Sun 1 PM Sun 1 PM Sun 1 PM Sun 4 PM Sun 8:30 PM
CAR at DAL NE at HOU SF at GB CHI at DEN WAS at MIA
DET at MIN NO at PHI Sun 4 PM OAK at KC Mon 9 PM
IND at BUF PIT at CLE CIN at SD TEN at ATL NYG at TB
JAX at NYJ SEA at BAL STL at ARZ *updated Times EST
   
Seattle vs Baltimore Sun, Nov 23; 1 PM on FOX at Ravens Stadium
  Seattle Rush Catch Pass
QB Matt Hasselbeck 0 0 180,1
RB Shaun Alexander 70 20 0
TE Itula Mili 0 20 0
WR Darrell Jackson 0 40,1 0
WR Bobby Engram 0 50 0
WR Koren Robinson 0 40 0
  Baltimore Rush Catch Pass
QB Anthony Wright 10 0 150
RB Jamal Lewis 120,2 10 0
TE Todd Heap 0 60 0
WR Travis Taylor 0 40 0
WR Marcus Robinson 0 20 0

Game Prediction: SEA 10, BAL 17

Seattle is only 1-3 on the road and the Ravens are 3-1 at home. Baltimore has a great defense when they can just drive from home to work on Sunday and Seattle comes off an easy win but the Ravens are on a two game losing streak and suddenly battling the Bengals for the lead of a division that will not likely be supplying a wild card this year.

Baltimore is favored here because Seattle has lost their last three road games to the Packers, Bengals and Redskins while only the Chiefs have won in Baltimore.

Seattle Notes

The Seahawks rise to 7-3 and are tied with St. Louis for the NFC West lead.

Quarterbacks:: Matt Hasselbeck comes off a moderate 207 yard, one touchdown game which has been about his average in six of the past seven weeks. More was expected last week against the visiting Lions but Seattle scored so quickly and easily that Hasselbeck never had a reason to throw much in the entire second half.

Running Backs: Stephen Alexander comes off his first 100 yard rushing game in a month which was aided by his 55 yard run. The Seahawks had planned on using Maurice Morris more in the game, but Alexander got hot and Morris injured his foot so no real changes were made. This was the third straight game that Alexander scored a touchdown.

Receivers: Koren Robinson only had three catches for 32 yards last week and Darrell Jackson fared little better with four catches for 56 yards. The offense is supposed to be opening up and throwing longer passes which would benefit the two greatly but the Lions put up no defense or offense last week and the passing game was little used. Bobby Engram had three catches for 59 yards and one touchdown and has actually been the most productive receiver the past couple of weeks. Jackson did not turn in more dropped passes but if he does, he could see more action heading towards Engram as the most reliable receiver as of late.

Match against the Defense: The Ravens have been very tough against quarterbacks the last four weeks and have only allowed one passing score to Leftwich who had 208 yards. The other three QBs - Kanell, Bulger and Griese - never threw for more than 126 yards and never scored. Hasselbeck should have a lower output afternoon unless he can get in a few big plays. Literally, only Chad Johnson has ever done much as a wideout against the Ravens and that was at home. The Ravens in Baltimore have only given up one touchdown this entire season to wideouts.

Alexander will be hard pressed to put up big numbers since the Ravens at home have never allowed a rushing score and the best runner there has gained at most 90 yards on the ground (Holmes). Portis and Taylor also played there and ended up around 100 total yards.

Baltimore Notes

The Ravens fall to 5-5 and are now tied with the Bengals for the AFC North lead.

Quarterbacks:: Anthony Wright proved to be little different than Kyle Boller by throwing for only 112 yards and two interceptions with no scoring plays. One reason Wright was chosen over Chris Redman was because of his mobility but he only had two runs for 11 yards. HC Brian Billick still intends to start Wright this week. While Boller had thrown at least one passing score in each of the past four games, Wright killed the streak.

Running Backs: Jamal Lewis only gained 88 rushing yards against the Dolphins and for the first time in a month he had no pass receptions. Lewis still leads the NFL with 1288 rushing yards this season which places him on a pace to just clip 2000 yards rushing.

Receivers: Todd Heap was the only receiver of any note last week with Wright throwing, catching all eight passes thrown to him for 64 yards. This is a motley crew of receivers to be certain when the quarterbacks have exceeded 156 yards in a game only once this year.

Match against the Defense: Jamal Lewis will face a defense that has allowed a big day to any back that runs more than 17 times and Ahman Green (118 yards, 2 TDs) and Rudi Johnson (101 yards, 2 TDs) both enjoyed the visiting Seahawks. Look for Lewis to get back into the 100 yard zone. This should be helped by LB Randall Godfrey being questionable this week after suffering a bruised sternum against the Lions though LB Anthony Simmons will return this week after missing one game for disciplinary reasons.

Seattle has yielded two passing scores in three of their last four games so Wright might get lucky on his passes to Heap. Travis Taylor might actually catch a pass intended for Heap as well.

Team Comparisons - Current team rankings (1-32) for FF points scored or allowed by position
Rank (1-32)
QB
RB
WR
TE
PK
DEF
SEA Scores
8
9
10
12
13
20
BAL Allows
2
14
2
20
20
27
SEA AP
-6
5
-8
8
-7
7
Rank (1-32)
QB
RB
WR
TE
PK
DEF
BAL Scores
31
11
32
3
3
7
SEA Allows
22
16
30
4
23
14
BAL AP
-9
5
-2
1
20
7
Offensive ranks = #1 gains most points, Defensive ranks = #1 allows least points
AP = Advantage Points, the net difference between a positional rank gained or allowed by the teams.
SEA
BAL
2003 Game Averages
BAL
SEA
Gains
Allows
QB's
Gains
Allows
239
173
Pass yards
149
215
1.3
0.9
Pass TDs
0.8
1.4
1.1
1.4
Interceptions
2.8
1.0
12
7
Rush yards
4
6
0.1
0.0
Rush TDs
0.0
0.3
---
---
RB's
---
---
111
73
Rush yards
132
102
0.9
0.5
Rush TDs
0.8
0.6
35
33
Receive yards
27
24
0.1
0.1
Receive TD's
0.0
0.3
---
---
WR's
---
---
175
109
Receive yards
57
165
0.8
0.4
Receive TD's
0.3
1.1
---
---
TE's
---
---
30
32
Receive yards
65
26
0.4
0.4
Receive TD's
0.5
0.0
---
---
PK's
---
---
1.5
1.5
Field Goals
2.4
1.8
2.9
1.8
Extra Points
1.9
2.4
---
---
DEF/ST
---
---
0.3
1.0
Fumbles
0.5
0.8
1.0
1.1
Interceptions
1.5
1.0
0.3
0.1
Touchdowns
0.3
0.0
1.6
1.9
Sacks
2.5
2.8
0.0
0.0
Safeties
0.0
0.0
Seahawks (7-3)
Score Opp.
27-10 NO
38-0 @ARZ
24-23 STL
Week 4 BYE
13-35 @GB
20-19 SF
24-17 CHI
24-27 @CIN
23-16 PIT
20-27 @WAS
35-14 DET
Week 12 @BAL
Week 13 CLE
Week 14 @MIN
Week 15 @STL
Week 16 ARZ
Week 17 @SF
Ravens (5-5)
Score Opp.
15-34 @PIT
33-13 CLE
24-10 @SD
10-17 KC
Week 5 BYE
26-18 @ARZ
26-34 @CIN
26-6 DEN
24-17 JAX
22-33 @STL
6-9 @MIA
Week 12 SEA
Week 13 SF
Week 14 CIN
Week 15 @OAK
Week 16 @CLE
Week 17 PIT

* Fantasy point rankings calculated using standard Huddle fantasy points