The
Huddle
WEEK 12
November 19, 2003
Season Ticket
|
|
| |
|
| San Francisco vs Green Bay |
Sun, Nov 23; 1 PM on FOX at Lambeau
Field |
| |
San
Francisco |
Rush
|
Catch
|
Pass |
| QB |
Tim Rattay |
0 |
0 |
230,2 |
| RB |
Garrison Hearst
|
60 |
20 |
0 |
| RB |
Kevan Barlow
|
40 |
10 |
0 |
| TE |
Jed Weaver |
0 |
10 |
0 |
| WR |
Terrell Owens
|
0 |
100,2 |
0 |
| WR |
Tai Streets |
0 |
30 |
0 |
| WR |
Cedrick Wilson
|
0 |
40 |
0 |
|
| |
Green
Bay |
Rush
|
Catch
|
Pass
|
| QB |
Brett Favre |
0 |
0 |
240,2 |
| RB |
Ahman Green |
110,1 |
40 |
0 |
| TE |
Bubba Franks |
0 |
20 |
0 |
| WR |
Javon Walker |
0 |
60,1 |
0 |
| WR |
Donald Driver |
0 |
60 |
0 |
| WR |
Robert Ferguson |
0 |
50,1 |
0 |
|
Game Prediction: SF
20, GB 24
Update: I have switched the
game scores on the news that Brett Favre is looking
better in practice. The 49ers have not won in Green Bay since
1990 and they have not won on the road yet this season. While
Rattay and company have looked great at home the past couple
of games, the Packers should take this game in a close, well-fought
battle.
Kevan Barlow and Garrison
Hearst are both expected to play without limitation. The
49ers intend to stick with the rotational system even more
so in colder weather games so I am changing the projections
for the runners.
Brett Favre's thumb is a major concern, but the Packers won
in Tampa Bay anyway. The biggest key statistic in this game
is that the 49ers are 5-1 at home but 0-4 on the road and
they have a short week and a road trip now.
Rattay has been hot and the Packers secondary is about as
tough as a bratwurst bun, so the 49ers should be posting some
nice points. This game could go either way and as unlikely
as it seems, the 49ers are in a nice position to step up to
their first road win by matching up a good rush defense against
Ahman Green and being able to hide their secondary problems
more thanks to Favre's reduced effectiveness.
Either way it should be yet another entertaining Packer-49er
matchup.
San Francisco Notes
The 49ers rise to 5-5 on the season with their Monday night
win over the Steelers.
Quarterbacks::
Tim Rattay is not making life any easier for Jeff Garcia.
Rattay threw for 254 yards and two scores against the Steelers
and completed 21 of 27 passes. In the two starts this season,
he has 490 yards and five touchdowns and most importantly,
he has thrown a score to Owens both games to keep him quiet.
Garcia may be ready to play this week but I am assuming here
that Rattay will play.
Running Backs: Kevan Barlow
ripped off a beautiful 78 yard touchdown run on Monday
night but later suffered a concussion and was held out of
the rest of the game. He ended with eight carries for 98 yards
and the one score and came within two yards of his first 100
yard effort. Garrison Hearst ran 20 times for 67 yards
which is more in line with what the Steelers typically would
allow. Hearst only has one 100 yard game this year and has
not scored in four weeks.
Receivers: As the hallmark
of most 49er wins, Terrell Owens had an early touchdown
grab and finished with eight catches for 155 yards, his best
game of the season. Tai Streets had no catches on his
two throws and Brandon Lloyd had three receptions for
15 yards. There was very little done by the wideouts outside
of Owens because there was no need.
While Streets has caught two touchdowns in the past four
games, he has not exceeded 34 yards during that time. Under
Rattay, the ball has been spread around and last week Lloyd
had four passes against Streets two. That will have to change
this week in Green Bay.
Match against the Defense: Whether
it is Rattay or Garcia, the quarterback should have
success against one of the worst secondaries in the league.
The Packers tightened up the last two weeks and held opponents
to under 200 yards with only one passing score but allowed
eight touchdowns in the three games before that.
The entire question comes down to Terrell Owens who
has been the heart of the passing game. Owens plays the left
side where previous opponents have fared very well. Morton
(109,1 TD), Moss (150, 1 TD and 87, 1 TD), Holt (67, 2 TD)
and even Pinkston (26, 1 TD) have done well. Owens is a lock
to get one score in this game based on the fact that all split
ends score on Green Bay. If there has been only one passing
score in a game against the Packers, it is that position that
scores it.
Garrison Hearst may have a decent game there as well
since the Packers have only an average rush defense at best
and allowed visitors like Alexander (115, 1 TD) and Holmes
(140, 1 TD) to have good games.
Green Bay Notes
The Packers come off a big win in Tampa Bay and at 5-5 draw
to within one game of the Vikings in the NFC North.
Quarterbacks::
Since Brett Favre broke his thumb in week seven, his
passing numbers have decreased each week and in Tampa Bay,
he only completed 13 of 28 passes for 92 yards and one score.
Favre only had 109 yards the previous week. To make matters
worse, he banged his thumb on a guard's helmet last week which
only increased the pain.
Favre enjoys great blocking and last week he was not sacked
- the first time that the Buccaneers had failed to reach a
quarterback in 69 games.
There is no indication that he will be rested this week,
but his thumb is obviously a problem.
Running Backs: Everyone
knew last week that Ahman Green was going to be the
focus of the offense, even the beer vendors were barking "Cold
Beer and Ahman's going to run". But it did not matter.
Green ran 21 times for 109 yards and one touchdown and Najeh
Davenport added 70 more yards on 13 carries as the Packers
simply bulldozed the Buccaneers flat. Green is now second
in the NFL with 1172 rushing yards.
Receivers: Favre's battered
thumb has slapped the brakes on the receivers and his last
two touchdowns were to Tony Fisher and Ahman Green - not a
wideout. Other than Javon Walker's two scores in week
nine, the running backs have last six touchdowns.
Until his thumb improves, this unit is mainly becoming tall
and lanky blockers. Robert Ferguson led receivers last
week with only four catches for 46 yards.
Match against the Defense: The
49er cornerbacks are among the league's worst and Favre's
thumb is the only thing that will get in the way of a big
passing game. Problem is that probably Favre will not be able
to take a great advantage. Look for Favre to throw mainly
short passes that favors no one.
Ahman Green will go against one of the best rushing defenses
that has been almost impenetrable at home but on the road
has given up big chunks to Marcel Shipp (35-165) recently.
The 49ers are not a good road team - they have not won on
the road this season and the Packers will use enough of Ahman
Green that he should be successful.
| Team Comparisons - Current team
rankings (1-32) for FF points scored or allowed
by position |
| Rank (1-32) |
QB
|
RB
|
WR
|
TE
|
PK
|
DEF
|
| SF Scores |
7
|
21
|
11
|
28
|
15
|
12
|
| GB Allows |
32
|
17
|
25
|
22
|
31
|
9
|
| SF AP |
25
|
-4
|
14
|
-6
|
16
|
-3
|
|
| Rank (1-32) |
QB
|
RB
|
WR
|
TE
|
PK
|
DEF
|
| GB Scores |
19
|
1
|
28
|
10
|
14
|
30
|
| SF Allows |
24
|
5
|
31
|
10
|
2
|
4
|
| GB AP |
5
|
4
|
3
|
0
|
-12
|
-26
|
|
Offensive ranks = #1 gains most points, Defensive
ranks = #1 allows least points
AP = Advantage Points, the net difference between a positional
rank gained or allowed by the teams.
|
SF
|
GB
|
2003 Game Averages
|
GB
|
SF
|
|
Gains
|
Allows
|
QB's
|
Gains
|
Allows
|
|
214
|
237
|
Pass yards
|
195
|
246
|
|
1.3
|
1.4
|
Pass TDs
|
1.9
|
1.4
|
|
0.9
|
1.0
|
Interceptions
|
0.9
|
1.4
|
|
20
|
20
|
Rush yards
|
1
|
8
|
|
0.4
|
0.5
|
Rush TDs
|
0.0
|
0.1
|
|
-----
|
---
|
RB's
|
---
|
-----
|
|
117
|
107
|
Rush yards
|
167
|
78
|
|
0.4
|
0.5
|
Rush TDs
|
1.3
|
0.5
|
|
36
|
35
|
Receive yards
|
58
|
42
|
|
0.1
|
0.1
|
Receive TD's
|
1.0
|
0
|
|
-----
|
---
|
WR's
|
---
|
-----
|
|
157
|
160
|
Receive yards
|
105
|
177
|
|
1.0
|
1.0
|
Receive TD's
|
0.5
|
1.1
|
|
-----
|
---
|
TE's
|
---
|
-----
|
|
20
|
42
|
Receive yards
|
32
|
27
|
|
0.1
|
0.3
|
Receive TD's
|
0.4
|
0.3
|
|
-----
|
---
|
PK's
|
---
|
-----
|
|
1.5
|
2.0
|
Field Goals
|
1.4
|
0.9
|
|
2.3
|
2.5
|
Extra Points
|
3.1
|
2.0
|
|
-----
|
---
|
DEF/ST
|
---
|
-----
|
|
0.5
|
0.5
|
Fumbles
|
0.3
|
0.4
|
|
1.4
|
0.9
|
Interceptions
|
1.0
|
1.0
|
|
0.1
|
0.3
|
Touchdowns
|
0.0
|
0
|
|
2.4
|
1.4
|
Sacks
|
1.9
|
1.9
|
|
0
|
0.0
|
Safeties
|
0.0
|
0
|
|
|
49ers (5-5) |
|
Score |
Opp. |
| 49-7 |
CHI |
| 24-27 |
@STL |
| 12-13 |
CLE |
| 7-35 |
@MIN |
| 24-17 |
DET |
| 19-20 |
@SEA |
| 24-7 |
TB |
| 13-16 |
@ARZ |
| 30-10 |
STL |
| Week 10 |
BYE |
| 30-14 |
PIT |
| Week 12 |
@GB |
| Week 13 |
@BAL |
| Week 14 |
ARZ |
| Week 15 |
@CIN |
| Week 16 |
@PHI |
| Week 17 |
SEA |
|
|
Packers
(5-5) |
|
Score |
Opp. |
| 25-30 |
MIN |
| 31-6 |
DET |
| 13-20 |
@ARZ |
| 38-23 |
@CHI |
| 35-13 |
SEA |
| 34-40 |
KC |
| 24-34 |
@STL |
| Week 8 |
BYE |
| 30-27 |
@MIN |
| 14-17 |
PHI |
| 20-13 |
@TB |
| Week 12 |
SF |
| Week 13 |
@DET |
| Week 14 |
CHI |
| Week 15 |
@SD |
| Week 16 |
@OAK |
| Week 17 |
DEN |
|
* Fantasy point rankings calculated using standard Huddle
fantasy points |