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Predictions & Projections
By David M. Dorey
 
The Huddle
WEEK 12
November 19, 2003
Season Ticket
Sun 1 PM Sun 1 PM Sun 1 PM Sun 4 PM Sun 8:30 PM
CAR at DAL NE at HOU SF at GB CHI at DEN WAS at MIA
DET at MIN NO at PHI Sun 4 PM OAK at KC Mon 9 PM
IND at BUF PIT at CLE CIN at SD TEN at ATL NYG at TB
JAX at NYJ SEA at BAL STL at ARZ *updated Times EST
   
Washington vs Miami Sun, Nov 23; 8:30 PM on ESPN at Pro Player Stadium
  Washington Rush Catch Pass
QB Patrick Ramsey Q Q Q
RB Trung Canidate 20 20 0
RB Ladell Betts D D D
WR Lavernues Coles 0 40 0
WR Rod Gardner 0 30 0
WR Patrick Johnson 0 40 0
WR Darnerian McCants 0 30 0
  Miami Rush Catch Pass
QB Brian Griese 0 0 170,1
RB Ricky Williams 110,2 10 0
TE Randy McMichael 0 40.1 0
WR Chris Chambers 0 30 0
WR Derrius Thompson 0 10 0
WR James McKnight 0 60 0

Game Prediction: WAS 3, MIA 24

Update: Patrick Ramsey still has not practiced this week and is questionable to play. His backup of Tim Hasselbeck is not attractive and if it is at all possible, Ramsey will go but it may be a game time decision. I am lowering Ramsey's numbers and not recommending that you start him if at all possible because it appears at best that he will play with a bad foot with little or no running game. This is a good week to stay away from Redskins players if possible.

Rock Cartwright still looks very questionable to play this week with an ankle injury and John Simon may get some plays in relief of Canidate but neither warrants projections.

Oronde Gadsden was signed this week and could see some plays.

While the coaching staff has made their decision on the starting quarterback, HC Dave Wannstedt is in no rush to make it public. Both quarterbacks have practiced with the first team and both looked good. I am leaving it with Brian Griese as the starter but Jay Fiedler is just as likely and after the terrible game by Griese last week, the team would most likely prefer to start Fiedler. I would expect them to post similar numbers as the running game will be showcased on Sunday.

The starting quarterback

The Redskins are only 1-4 on the road and have no running backs and a quarterback with a hurt foot. The Dolphins are only 2-3 at home but have a running back, a great defense and are still in the playoff hunt. When Washington faces a good secondary, on the road, and have no running back the outcome is predictable.

Washington Notes

The Redskins took only one game to erase the warm feelings of the Seattle win and drop to 4-6 with their loss to the Panthers.

Quarterbacks:: Patrick Ramsey has revealed that he has been nursing a slight fracture in his foot this season and that it may be affecting how he plants his feet on a pass. He does not expect to miss this week and he comes off his third consecutive game of two passing scores.

Running Backs: This position has become a weekly guessing game for Washington. Last week Rock Cartwright (a 5'7" fullback) was to be featured but he fumbled on his first carry at the goal line and only gained 32 yards on nine carries. He also sprained his ankle and is wearing a walking boot to heal it this week.

Trung Canidate stayed healthy but only managed 18 yards on ten carries. Ladell Betts has been out with a broken forearm. The Redskins are running out of healthy runners and the only one they have used does nothing when he runs.

Recently signed John Simon may get a shot since he has a jersey number that will not cause any problems with field officials but starting a career on the road in Miami for the Redskins is hardly setting anyone up to succeed. Until further word, I am considering the Canidate as the only willing and able runner this week.

Receivers: After both Laveranues Coles and Rod Gardner had great games against the Seahawks, they were largely ineffective last week in Carolina where the scores went to Patrick Johnson and Darnerian McCants. It was Johnson's first score this season but McCants now has five - one more than Gardner and two more than Coles.

Match against the Defense: The Redskins cannot run against an average team and heading to Miami where one of the best waits is a recipe for disaster. The longest run allowed by the Dolphins this season is only 19 yards and they just held Jamal Lewis to only 88 yards on 26 carries.

The passing game will be used early and often but should find limited success against a team that has allowed Carr, Brady and Manning to exceed 265 yards passing as a visitor. CB Patrick Surtain should return to the starting lineup Sunday after only participating on three plays last week. That is not a help. He will lineup against Coles on most plays.

What will happen is that the Redskins will be forced to throw and the top corners in Miami will keep Coles and Gardner to pedestrian numbers. Both McCants and Johnson could have decent games again this week since by sheer volume, someone will be catching passes.

Miami Notes

The Dolphins come off an electrifying win over the Ravens that featured no actual touchdowns by either team. They rise to 6-4 and remain two games behind the Patriots in the AFC East.

Quarterbacks:: Brian Griese should have another start here even though he only completed 13 of 32 passes for 126 yards last week. After his big first start in week eight, Griese has gotten a little worse every week and Jay Fiedler is looking better and better every week. Fiedler may be the #2 quarterback this week.

Running Backs: Ricky Williams finally turned in a 100 yard game for the first time in eight weeks. He ran for 105 yards and it required 36 carries to get there. Williams leads the league with 246 carries though he trails nine other runners in yardage.

Williams may have a slightly harder time this week since LG Jamie Nails (ankle) and RG Todd Perry (elbow) may not play. So much for running up the gut.

Receivers: Chris Chambers gained 34 yards on four catches last week which was actually pretty good against CB Chris McAllister. Since he strung three scoring games in a row, Chambers has gone two weeks without a score and only had 64 yards in that time. He pulls Champ Bailey this week - oh joy!

The biggest news is that after ten games, the Dolphins are starting to realize that the Derrius Thompson kid has not been doing much this season. He only has 15 catches for 206 yards and may be replaced this week by James McKnight. Lately McKnight and Kendall Newsome have been getting more play to the detriment of Thompson (though to the benefit of the team).

Match against the Defense: The Redskins on the road have always allowed a passing score with the exception of last week when Delhomme had none but threw for 317 yards. The Dolphins are not likely to start throwing a lot and with some decent secondary players for Washington, that idea is probably a bad one anyway.

When they do pass, Chambers will be drawing Champ Bailey and all the good numbers go to the Smoot side where Muhammad went nuts last week for 189 yards. Since Thompson is less a factor, it should provide a good chance for James McKnight to score though Randy McMichael is more likely a target near the endzone.

The Dolphins are going to try to run as always and against this team will have success. Troy Hambrick had 100 yards and two scores and Henry had 167 yards and two scores. Duckett had only 35 yards but scored twice. Notice the pattern? The Redskins threw everything at Stephen Davis last week and held him to only 92 yards and one touchdown, a relative victory compared to all other road games.

Team Comparisons - Current team rankings (1-32) for FF points scored or allowed by position
Rank (1-32)
QB
RB
WR
TE
PK
DEF
WAS Scores
13
30
6
32
16
18
MIA Allows
7
3
10
11
6
23
WAS AP
-6
-27
4
-21
-10
5
Rank (1-32)
QB
RB
WR
TE
PK
DEF
MIA Scores
29
24
26
8
19
4
WAS Allows
27
26
26
30
11
19
MIA AP
-2
2
0
22
-8
15
Offensive ranks = #1 gains most points, Defensive ranks = #1 allows least points
AP = Advantage Points, the net difference between a positional rank gained or allowed by the teams.
WAS
MIA
2003 Game Averages
MIA
WAS
Gains
Allows
QB's
Gains
Allows
207
213
Pass yards
179
249
1.5
0.6
Pass TDs
0.9
1.6
0.9
1.8
Interceptions
1.1
1.4
6
10
Rush yards
5
6
0.1
0.1
Rush TDs
0.0
0.1
---
---
RB's
---
---
77
75
Rush yards
87
121
0.3
0.5
Rush TDs
0.5
0.9
43
40
Receive yards
37
42
0.1
0.0
Receive TD's
0.0
0.3
---
---
WR's
---
---
157
131
Receive yards
94
163
1.4
0.6
Receive TD's
0.8
1.0
---
---
TE's
---
---
7
42
Receive yards
48
44
0.0
0.0
Receive TD's
0.1
0.4
---
---
PK's
---
---
1.6
1.4
Field Goals
1.5
1.1
1.9
1.5
Extra Points
1.8
2.9
---
---
DEF/ST
---
---
1.0
1.1
Fumbles
0.9
0.4
1.4
1.0
Interceptions
1.9
1.0
0.0
0.3
Touchdowns
0.1
0.3
1.3
1.9
Sacks
2.9
2.8
0.0
0.0
Safeties
0.1
0.0
Redskins (4-6)
Score Opp.
16-13 NYJ
33-31 @ATL
21-24 NYG
20-17 NE
25-27 @PHI
13-35 TB
7-24 @BUF
Week 8 BYE
14-21 @DAL
27-20 SEA
17-20 @CAR
Week 12 @MIA
Week 13 NO
Week 14 @NYG
Week 15 DAL
Week 16 @CHI
Week 17 PHI
Dolphins (6-4)
Score Opp.
20-21 HOU
21-10 @NYJ
17-7 BUF
Week 4 BYE
23-10 @NYG
24-10 @JAX
13-19 NE
26-10 @SD
17-23 IND
7-31 @TEN
9-6 BAL
Week 12 WAS
Week 13 @DAL
Week 14 @NE
Week 15 PHI
Week 16 @BUF
Week 17 NYJ

* Fantasy point rankings calculated using standard Huddle fantasy points