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Predictions & Projections
By David M. Dorey
 
The Huddle
WEEK 13
November 26, 2003
Season Ticket
Thu 12:30 Sun 1 PM Sun 1 PM Sun 4 PM Sun 8:30 PM
GB at DET ARZ at CHI MIN at STL CLE at SEA TB at JAX
Thu 4:05 ATL at HOU NE at IND NO at WAS Mon 9 PM
MIA at DAL BUF at NYG PHI at CAR DEN at OAK TEN at NYJ
*updated CIN at PIT SF at BAL KC at SD Times EST
   
Buffalo vs NY Giants Sun, Nov 30; 1 PM on CBS at Giants Stadium
  Buffalo Rush Catch Pass
QB Drew Bledsoe 0 0 190
RB Travis Henry 80,1 10 0
TE M. Campbell 0 20 0
WR Eric Moulds 0 60 0
WR Josh Reed 0 40 0
WR Bobby Shaw 0 50 0
  New York Giants Rush Catch Pass
QB Kerry Collins 0 0 240,1
RB Tiki Barber 80 30 0
RB Dorsey Levens 10,1 0 0
TE Jeremy Shockey 0 30 0
WR Amani Toomer 0 70,1 0
WR Ike Hilliard 0 80 0

Game Prediction: BUF 10, NYG 17

Update: Bledsoe missed practice on Thursday due to headaches and nausea as a result of a mild concussion but he is expected to practice before Sunday and play.

Shockey has been listed as questionable after revealing that he aggravated his knee injury on Monday night during pregame warmups. His knee will be evaluated prior to the game but I am assuming that he plays but is limited. I am lowering his numbers but still including him.

This game pits two teams that are reeling from losing streaks and fighting the urge to just give up this early in the season. The only break either team has received this year was to Henry's leg.

Buffalo Notes

The Bills drop to 4-7 and with that any hope that a turn around will change things this season. They have lost their last four games.

Quarterbacks:: Drew Bledsoe has hopped onto the train to nowhere and last week pulled down the blinds and went to sleep. He only completed 15 of 28 passes for 135 yards and no scores against a Colts defense that gave up three scores the previous week.

His pitiful tally the last six weeks is only one game above 202 yards passing, one touchdown against twelve turnovers. He has not exceeded 184 yards passing or scored at all in the past four weeks.

Running Backs: Travis Henry did play on his cracked leg but only managed 77 yards on 22 carries. The good news was that he could play. The bad news was that he did not play very well along with the rest of his team. To add insult, Sammy Morris scored the lone touchdown on his only carry in the game.

Receivers: Eric Moulds did suit up in spite of his ever-aching groin but only had three catches for 38 yards, marginally better than Josh Reed's 26 yards or Bobby Shaw's 27 yards. This is a passing attack going nowhere with a vengeance.

Mark Campbell completed the futility last week by having his first game of the season with no catches.

Match against the Defense: First consider that this is an offense that has averaged about 9 points a game - in total - over the past four weeks.

Bledsoe is a dud now that Moulds drags a leg when he goes out on passes and the rest of the receivers are even worse. The Giants are a team that can be beaten through the air - it happens all the time - but the Bills are not showing the ability to take advantage.

Travis Henry should have a decent game if the Bills just keep handing off and by this point, it is not a bad strategy.

NY Giants Notes

The Bills Giants drop to 4-7 and with that any hope that a turn around will change things this season. They have lost their last four three games.

Quarterbacks:: Like Bledsoe, Kerry Collins comes off his worst game of the season against the Bucs last Monday when he only managed 160 yards with two interceptions and two fumbles. His receivers were only marginally helpful and Amani Toomer arguably dropped one or two touchdowns. Collins had a brief two game spurt against the Vikings and Jets of 300+ yards and two scores each. The last three games he has only one score against five interceptions.

Running Backs: After two nice 100+ games, Tiki Barber only gained 55 yards on 13 carries and Dorsey Levens gained only one net yard on four tries. The entire rushing game has only produced five rushing scores in 11 games this season. Two of them were one yarders by Levens in the past two weeks and another was on Brian Mitchell's only carry this year.

Receivers: Though Ike Hilliard only had exactly two catches for 18 yards in the previous two weeks, he doubled that on Monday with four catches for 43 yards. Amani Toomer only managed 34 yards on four catches and has only one touchdown in the past eight games.

Jeremy Shockey may play this week and was a game time scratch last Monday. I am not including him at this point but expect a Friday update on his situation.

Match against the Defense: Here is where Collins should get his groove back. The Bills have allowed six passing scores in their last three games on the road. Trent Green (2), Quincy Carter (1) and even Vinny Testaverde (3) have all scored and more importantly, the Bills have only intercepted two passes in the past eight games.

The Bills play a scheme that limits the yardage of most receivers and only Andre Johnson and Dante Hall have gone over 100 yards thanks to long passes. But the Bills are getting worse and the Giants more desperate so something has to give.

Tiki Barber has an excellent chance to see Levens steal a touchdown but Barber should turn in a decent yardage.

Team Comparisons - Current team rankings (1-32) for FF points scored or allowed by position
Rank (1-32)
QB
RB
WR
TE
PK
DEF
BUF Scores
31
27
24
31
32
29
NYG Allows
12
25
18
2
4
26
BUF AP
-19
-2
-6
-29
-28
-3
Rank (1-32)
QB
RB
WR
TE
PK
DEF
NYG Scores
12
20
15
5
25
18
BUF Allows
3
18
6
26
17
25
NYG AP
-9
-2
-9
21
-8
7
Offensive ranks = #1 gains most points, Defensive ranks = #1 allows least points
AP = Advantage Points, the net difference between a positional rank gained or allowed by the teams.
BUF
NYG
2003 Game Averages
NYG
BUF
Gains
Allows
QB's
Gains
Allows
182
207
Pass yards
261
182
0.3
1.3
Pass TDs
1.0
1.0
1.3
0.8
Interceptions
1.4
0.4
3
9
Rush yards
5
8
0.2
0.0
Rush TDs
0.0
0.0
---
----- 
RB's
----- 
---
92
103
Rush yards
102
102
0.4
1.0
Rush TDs
0.4
1.0
26
46
Receive yards
47
23
0.1
0.3
Receive TD's
0.1
0.0
---
----- 
WR's
----- 
---
139
141
Receive yards
150
128
0.2
1.0
Receive TD's
0.8
0.6
---
----- 
TE's
----- 
---
17
19
Receive yards
65
31
0.0
0
Receive TD's
0.1
0.4
---
----- 
PK's
----- 
---
1.1
0.9
Field Goals
1.3
1.7
1.1
2.7
Extra Points
1.6
2.0
---
----- 
DEF/ST
----- 
---
0.4
0.9
Fumbles
0.8
1.1
0.4
1.4
Interceptions
0.8
1.2
0.1
0.2
Touchdowns
0.1
0.0
1.6
2.0
Sacks
2.2
3.3
0.3
0.1
Safeties
0
0.0
Giants (4-7)
Score Opp.
23-13 STL
32-35 DAL
24-21 @WAS
Week 4 BYE
10-23 MIA
6-17 @NE
10-14 PHI
29-27 @MIN
31-28 @NYJ
7-27 ATL
10-28 @PHI
13-19 @TB
Week 13 BUF
Week 14 WAS
Week 15 @NO
Week 16 @DAL
Week 17 CAR
Bills (4-7)
Score Opp.
31-0 NE
38-17 @JAX
7-17 @MIA
13-23 PHI
22-16 CIN
3-30 @NYJ
24-7 WAS
5-38 @KC
Week 9 BYE
6-10 @DAL
10-12 HOU
14-17 IND
Week 13 @NYG
Week 14 NYJ
Week 15 @TEN
Week 16 MIA
Week 17 @NE

* Fantasy point rankings calculated using standard Huddle fantasy points