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Predictions & Projections
By David M. Dorey
 
The Huddle
WEEK 13
November 26, 2003
Season Ticket
Thu 12:30 Sun 1 PM Sun 1 PM Sun 4 PM Sun 8:30 PM
GB at DET ARZ at CHI MIN at STL CLE at SEA TB at JAX
Thu 4:05 ATL at HOU NE at IND NO at WAS Mon 9 PM
MIA at DAL BUF at NYG PHI at CAR DEN at OAK TEN at NYJ
*updated CIN at PIT SF at BAL KC at SD Times EST
   
Kansas City vs San Diego Sun, Nov 30; 4 PM on CBS at Qualcomm Stadium
  Kansas City Rush Catch Pass
QB Trent Green 0 0 250,2
RB Priest Holmes 90,2 60 0
TE Tony Gonzalez 0 40,1 0
WR Johnnie Morton 0 40 0
WR Dante Hall 0 30 0
WR Eddie Kennison 0 60,1 0
  San Diego Rush Catch Pass
QB Doug Flutie 0 0 200,1
RB L. Tomlinson 100,1 40 0
TE S. Alexander 0 10 0
WR David Boston 0 80,1 0
WR Reche Caldwell 0 20 0
WR K. Osgood 0 30 0

Game Prediction: KC 31, SD 17

Chargers have not won on the road by more than a touchdown as the whole winning thing gets to be a burden. But the Chargers are one of the better "get blownout" teams in the NFL and the Chiefs take it running away late in the game. They opened the season with a 27-14 win over the Chargers and which team is worse now?

Kansas City Notes

The Chiefs rise to 10-1 with their win over the Raiders and are four games in the lead of the AFC West.

Quarterbacks:: After three monster weeks, Trent Green turned in a mild 244 yards and one touchdown last week. He has not thrown his last 156 passes without an interception - the longest streak in the league this season. He has thrown for scores in ten of the past eleven games.

Running Backs: Priest Holmes was in vintage form on Sunday, rushing for 91 yards and a score while adding six catches for 100 more yards. When he played against the Chargers in week one, he had two scores and 183 total yards.

The Chiefs went back to using Derrick Blaylock as a backup last week and he scored once during his three carries for 40 yards.

Receivers: The wideouts went back into hibernation last week and Johnnie Morton managed no catches while dropping a possible touchdown. Morton turns in a decent game about every three weeks and just had a good one two weeks ago.

Eddie Kennison has scored in every third game this season while doing little else. He is now on his third game since he scored in week 10, so by his perfect trend he is due. Then again, he did not score when he played the Chargers the last time.

Tony Gonzalez only had four catches for 36 yards and failed to score last week for the first time in three games.

Match against the Defense: When these team played in week one, Trent Green had 282 yards passing with one score to Johnnie Morton. The Chargers are no better on defense now.

If you have any KC players, start them since it literally gets no better than playing against the Chargers.

San Diego Notes

The Chargers fall to 2-9 and should be thinking draft strategy by now. Okay - after selecting a new coach.

Quarterbacks:: Doug Flutie has now split the difference between his huge game against the Vikings (248 yards, 4 TDs) and the Broncos (70 yards, 1 TD, 4 INT) by gaining 210 yards and two scores with no interceptions against the Bengals. He will face the Chiefs that gave up 202 yards and two scores to Drew Brees in week one.

Running Backs: LaDainian Tomlinson gained 95 yards on only 16 carries last week and scored once. He was effective running but since the Chargers trailed 28-13 at the half, the run game was largely abandoned. Tomlinson is growing more frustrated every week with receiving somewhat minimal play. In the past month, he has never had more than 16 carries in a game. For the season, he has only had over 16 carries in only four games. As General Custer finally realized at the Little Big Horn - "Hey - this sucks but what can ya do?"

In Tomlinson's favor, OT Solomon Page could be back this week.

Receivers: To the delight of the fantasy world, Flutie literally completed all passes except for two to either Tomlinson or David Boston who ended with nine catches for 139 yards and two scores. No other wideout had a single catch.

Have to believe future opponents are going to catch on to that plan.

Match against the Defense: Back when these teams played in week one, Tomlinson only gained 34 yards on 13 carries but with the Chiefs featuring one of the worst run defenses in the league, that is destined to increase sharply.

Flutie faces a secondary that is above average so expect only moderate numbers from him unless the run is once again abandoned and he gets to air it out to a defense that is tops at intercepting the ball.

Team Comparisons - Current team rankings (1-32) for FF points scored or allowed by position
Rank (1-32)
QB
RB
WR
TE
PK
DEF
KC Scores
6
3
18
1
9
3
SD Allows
32
24
31
32
28
13
KC AP
26
21
13
31
19
10
Rank (1-32)
QB
RB
WR
TE
PK
DEF
SD Scores
22
6
21
27
27
21
KC Allows
13
27
7
14
8
3
SD AP
-9
21
-14
-13
-19
-18
Offensive ranks = #1 gains most points, Defensive ranks = #1 allows least points
AP = Advantage Points, the net difference between a positional rank gained or allowed by the teams.
KC
SD
2003 Game Averages
SD
KC
Gains
Allows
QB's
Gains
Allows
261
251
Pass yards
185
211
1.7
2.4
Pass TDs
1.0
1.0
0.4
0.9
Interceptions
1.1
1.6
6
9
Rush yards
11
13
0.1
0.0
Rush TDs
0.2
0.1
---
---
RB's
---
---
105
117
Rush yards
111
129
1.3
0.6
Rush TDs
1.0
0.8
58
40
Receive yards
43
49
0.0
0.4
Receive TD's
0.0
0.2
---
---
WR's
---
---
136
170
Receive yards
126
135
0.8
1.2
Receive TD's
0.8
0.4
---
---
TE's
---
---
68
40
Receive yards
16
27
0.9
0.8
Receive TD's
0.2
0.3
---
---
PK's
---
---
1.3
1.7
Field Goals
1.0
1.3
3.8
3.2
Extra Points
2.3
2.0
---
---
DEF/ST
---
---
1.0
0.4
Fumbles
0.7
0.3
1.6
1.2
Interceptions
0.9
0.3
0.4
0.1
Touchdowns
0.1
0.1
2.4
2.0
Sacks
2.1
1.2
0.0
0.1
Safeties
0.0
0.1
Chiefs (10-1)
Score Opp.
27-14 SD
41-20 PIT
42-14 @HOU
17-10 @BAL
24-23 DEN
40-34 @GB
17-10 @OAK
38-5 BUF
Week 9 BYE
41-20 CLE
19-24 @CIN
27-24 OAK
Week 13 @SD
Week 14 @DEN
Week 15 DET
Week 16 @MIN
Week 17 CHI
Chargers (2-9)
Score Opp.
14-27 @KC
13-37 DEN
10-24 BAL
31-34 @OAK
21-27 @JAX
Week 6 BYE
26-20 @CLE
10-26 MIA
7-20 @CHI
42-28 MIN
8-37 @DEN
27-34 CIN
Week 13 KC
Week 14 @DET
Week 15 GB
Week 16 @PIT
Week 17 OAK

* Fantasy point rankings calculated using standard Huddle fantasy points