VOTED #1 FANTASY FOOTBALL SITE
1998, 1999, 2000, 2001 & 2002
PRIORITY NEWS   MESSAGE BOARDS JOIN   
HOME ARTICLES STATISTICS WEEKLY FEATURES TEAM LINKS NFL RESOURCES  
Predictions & Projections
By David M. Dorey
 
The Huddle
WEEK 13
November 26, 2003
Season Ticket
Thu 12:30 Sun 1 PM Sun 1 PM Sun 4 PM Sun 8:30 PM
GB at DET ARZ at CHI MIN at STL CLE at SEA TB at JAX
Thu 4:05 ATL at HOU NE at IND NO at WAS Mon 9 PM
MIA at DAL BUF at NYG PHI at CAR DEN at OAK TEN at NYJ
*updated CIN at PIT SF at BAL KC at SD Times EST
   
Miami vs Dallas Thu, Nov 27; 4 PM on CBS at Texas Stadium
  Miami Rush Catch Pass
QB Jay Fiedler 0 0 180,1
RB Ricky Williams 60 10 0
TE Randy McMichael 0 40,1 0
WR Chris Chambers 0 60 0
WR Derrius Thompson 0 10 0
WR James McKnight 0 30 0
  Dallas Rush Catch Pass
QB Quincy Carter 0 0 210,1
RB Richie Anderson 10 40 0
RB Troy Hambrick 40,1 10 0
TE Dan Campbell 0 20 0
WR Joey Galloway 0 30 0
WR Terry Glenn 0 50 0
WR Antonio Bryant 0 40,1 0

Game Prediction: MIA 13, DAL 17

The game favors the Cowboys for several good reasons. First - the Dolphins have not been playing well and scrambled to barely win last week at home against a bad Redskins team. Williams has not ran very well and now on the road against a tough defense will make him less a factor.

The Cowboys are at home with slightly more preparation time than the traveling Dolphins and in a game with less time to prepare, the better defense is almost always on the winning team since gameplans tend to more generic versions that are more easily defended.

It should be a lower scoring affair but an entertaining way to digest that Thanksgiving meal. The last time these two met on Thanksgiving the Dolphins won thanks to Leon Lett's slide into the blocked field goal but there is no snow in the forecast this time.

Miami Notes

The Dolphins rise to 7-4 in an very unimpressive win over the Redskins last week. They are two games behind the Patriots in the AFC East.

Quarterbacks:: After Brian Griese had thrown two interceptions last week he finally got the hook and Jay Fielder came in to lead the Fins on two touchdown drives to win the game. Since Fielder had no unusual soreness in his knee after the game, he is a lock to start this week. Griese started well with an 80 yard bomb to McKnight last Sunday but was ineffective from that point.

Running Backs: Ricky Williams turned in his second straight 100+ yard game and scored twice last week, looking stronger as the game continued. Perhaps the defense changes, but he ran far better after Fiedler came into to the game. Williams now goes on the road where he has not had a decent game since week two.

RG Todd Perry should be back in the lineup this week but LG Jamie Nails may not play because of a sprained ankle.

Receivers: The 80 yard scoring strike last week to James McKnight was the fourth longest scoring play in Dolphins history but he only managed two more catches for 16 yards which is much closer to his average. McKnight only has two games this season over 33 yards receiving.

Chris Chambers ended with only 34 yards and four catches and though Fielder has moved the offense better than Griese, Chambers has never been a big beneficiary. Two of his best games this season came in the first two weeks when Griese played though he did gain 118 yards and two scores against the Texans with Fiedler in week two. The Texans and the Cowboys are quite different in their ability to cover the pass.

Much like Chambers, Randy McMichael did better with Griese this season than with Fiedler. Problem is that the running game seems to open up better with Fiedler in the game though one big qualifier here is that McMichael has had his better games when the Fins face good cornerbacks so McMichael will likely come into heavier play this week.

Match against the Defense: The Dolphins managed to comeback and beat the Redskins last week but should have pummeled them out right from the start. Now they face one of the stingiest defenses in the league with relatively no time to prepare.

The Cowboys have allowed only three passing scores in the last four weeks and two of those were to Patrick Ramsey in trash time. When Brady had 212 yards two weeks again in NE, it was the only time since week four that a quarterback had exceeded 151 yards passing and Jay Fiedler will find a much tougher time locating open receivers this week.

With Chambers covered by CB Terrence Newman and Thompson able to take himself out of the game, it could open up for Randy McMichael more but Dallas has been very tough on tight ends the last eight weeks. Both Crumpler and Shockey scored on them the first two weeks when the defense was still coming together.

Ricky Williams faces a defense that has been very tough everywhere and more so at home. Stephen Davis only managed 59 yards last week and Henry was tops with only 80 yards there. Williams will dip back under the century mark this week.

Dallas Notes

The Cowboys come off a big emotional win over the Panthers and rise to 8-3 to remain tied with the Eagles in the NFC East.

Quarterbacks:: The Cowboys surprised the Panthers last week when they did not even try to run the ball much. Instead, they allowed Quincy Carter to throw a season high 44 passes for 29 completions and 254 yards with two touchdowns. Since the Panthers had a good run defense anyway, the Cowboys needed to score via the pass and did exactly that. This should be the case again this week.

Running Backs: Troy Hambrick only had 12 rushes for 26 yards last week and outside of his 100 yard game against the Redskins, he has not scored nor gained over 41 yards rushing since week seven. Since Adrian Murrell was cut again, Aveion Cason came back into the game plan and had 26 yards on six carries including a rushing score. Richie Anderson turned in six catches for 28 yards.

This is not a rushing team for the most part, at least not well and the gang will get carries largely to keep the defenses honest and helps kill the clock later in the game if Dallas has the lead.

Receivers: Terry Glenn comes off his best game in a month with 74 yards on five catches against the Panthers and Joey Galloway (3-50) and Antonio Bryant (3-35) did just enough to keep the chains moving. Galloway had a touchdown in the game as well.

Jeff Robinson had the other passing score but it was on his only catch of the season. No wonder he was not covered. Dan Campbell had six passes and three catches for 22 yards last week and the rookie Jason Witten had his best game of his career with six catches for 49 yards.

The passing game worked because it never locked on to any one receiver and that will again be important this week.

Match against the Defense: The Dolphins have a top ten rushing defense and the Cowboys do not run well anymore, so expect another lesser game from Hambrick. There is a decent chance for a rushing score though since the Fins have allowed one in four of their last five games. The scorers were more like Hambrick than Cason, so while he will have low yardage he could sneak in a touchdown.

The Dolphins have killed opponents when they had an average quarterback and been killed when the opposing quarterback was good (Manning, McNair, Brady). Where Carter falls seems to change but it is a safer assumption that he will not post big numbers against a secondary that has kept most opponents under 200 yards passing in the last month.

The most likely wideout to score would be Bryant as the #3. The good corner play of Miami can hold down Galloway and Glenn but several #3 receivers have scored against them (Walters, Givens, Calico). That will be the result of a single long pass and no receiver should rack up big yards.

Team Comparisons - Current team rankings (1-32) for FF points scored or allowed by position
Rank (1-32)
QB
RB
WR
TE
PK
DEF
MIA Scores
30
22
26
11
19
6
DAL Allows
1
3
2
1
1
6
MIA AP
-29
-19
-24
-10
-18
0
Rank (1-32)
QB
RB
WR
TE
PK
DEF
DAL Scores
25
17
22
22
30
12
MIA Allows
8
8
10
7
10
22
DAL AP
-17
-9
-12
-15
-20
10
Offensive ranks = #1 gains most points, Defensive ranks = #1 allows least points
AP = Advantage Points, the net difference between a positional rank gained or allowed by the teams.
MIA
DAL
2003 Game Averages
DAL
MIA
Gains
Allows
QB's
Gains
Allows
180
151
Pass yards
188
207
0.9
0.7
Pass TDs
1.1
0.7
1.2
0.7
Interceptions
1.2
1.7
5
3
Rush yards
14
10
0.0
0.0
Rush TDs
0.0
0.1
---
---
RB's
---
---
92
78
Rush yards
98
80
0.7
0.4
Rush TDs
0.7
0.6
34
30
Receive yards
48
41
0.0
0.2
Receive TD's
0.0
0.0
---
---
WR's
---
---
102
107
Receive yards
119
128
0.8
0.4
Receive TD's
0.8
0.7
---
---
TE's
---
---
44
13
Receive yards
21
38
0.1
0.0
Receive TD's
0.2
0.0
---
---
PK's
---
---
1.4
1.2
Field Goals
1.0
1.6
1.9
1.2
Extra Points
1.9
1.6
---
---
DEF/ST
---
---
0.9
0.6
Fumbles
0.9
1.1
1.8
1.1
Interceptions
0.7
1.1
0.1
0.1
Touchdowns
0.2
0.2
2.8
1.4
Sacks
2.1
1.9
0.1
0.0
Safeties
0.2
0.0
Dolphins (7-4)
Score Opp.
20-21 HOU
21-10 @NYJ
17-7 BUF
Week 4 BYE
23-10 @NYG
24-10 @JAX
13-19 NE
26-10 @SD
17-23 IND
7-31 @TEN
9-6 BAL
24-23 WAS
Week 13 @DAL
Week 14 @NE
Week 15 PHI
Week 16 @BUF
Week 17 NYJ
Cowboys (8-3)
Score Opp.
13-27 ATL
35-32 @NYG
Week 3 BYE
17-6 @NYJ
24-7 ARZ
23-21 PHI
38-7 @DET
0-16 @TB
21-14 WAS
10-6 BUF
0-12 @NE
24-20 CAR
Week 13 MIA
Week 14 @PHI
Week 15 @WAS
Week 16 NYG
Week 17 @NO

* Fantasy point rankings calculated using standard Huddle fantasy points