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Predictions & Projections
By David M. Dorey
 
The Huddle
WEEK 13
November 26, 2003
Season Ticket
Thu 12:30 Sun 1 PM Sun 1 PM Sun 4 PM Sun 8:30 PM
GB at DET ARZ at CHI MIN at STL CLE at SEA TB at JAX
Thu 4:05 ATL at HOU NE at IND NO at WAS Mon 9 PM
MIA at DAL BUF at NYG PHI at CAR DEN at OAK TEN at NYJ
*updated CIN at PIT SF at BAL KC at SD Times EST
   
San Francisco vs Baltimore Sun, Nov 30; 1 PM on FOX at Ravens Stadium
  San Francisco Rush Catch Pass
QB Jeff Garcia 10 0 230,2
RB Garrison Hearst 60 20 0
RB Kevan Barlow 20 0 0
TE Jed Weaver 0 20 0
WR Terrell Owens 0 80,1 0
WR Tai Streets 0 40 0
WR Cedrick Wilson 0 50,1 0
  Baltimore Rush Catch Pass
QB Anthony Wright 20 0 190,1
RB Jamal Lewis 120,2 10 0
TE Todd Heap 0 40 0
WR Travis Taylor 0 50,1 0
WR Frank Sanders 0 30 0
WR Marcus Robinson 0 40 0

Game Prediction: SF 17, BAL 24

The 49ers come in as a terrible 0-5 road team and gimpy Garcia back in time to see Ray Lewis blitzing. If they can give up 241 rushing yards to the Packers, what will Jamal Lewis do?

San Francisco Notes

The 49ers fall to 5-6 with their fifth straight road loss this season.

Quarterbacks:: Jeff Garcia missed his third game with a high left ankle sprain but should be ready to reclaim his old job this week. I am assuming that he plays, particularly after the performance turned in by Tim Rattay last week. He completed only 14 of 30 passes for 142 yards, with one touchdown and one interception. His passer rating was 57.9. He was also sacked four times and was unable to sustain drives.

Rattay had two great home games against the Rams and Steelers, but fell apart on the road in Green Bay. Then again, Garcia has not scored in his last three road trips either.

Running Backs: The 49er rushing attack was completely ineffective against the Packers and Garrison Hearst turned in 59 yards on 16 carries but had one 20 yard run to look that good. Kevan Barlow was limited to only four carries in the game and could still be feeling the effects of his concussion against the Steelers.

The 49ers also took another hit to the offensive line when OG Dwayne Ledford, who filled in for injured Ron Stone and now may be out for the remainder of the season with a high right ankle sprain.

Receivers: Terrell Owens scored his sixth touchdown of the season and scored in all three Rattay games but only ended with 49 yards on five catches. Basically, Owens has three monster games this year and the rest of the time he has been only average in production.

Tai Streets only had three catches for 26 yards last week and continues to nurse the tendonitis in both knees. Streets has been a relative non-factor now for the last two months.

Match against the Defense: The 49ers at home have been very different than the 49ers on the road this season and they have not won a road game for a full calendar year now. With Garcia returning to the lineup, things are not likely to get much better. While Hasselbeck managed a freak five touchdowns and 333 yards last week, the norm in Baltimore is less than 200 yards passing for opponents.

Another factor to consider is the pass rush of the Ravens against Garcia who returned from a sprained ankle. Since Baltimore has not given up a rushing score at home yet this season, the passing game will have to keep the 49ers moving so there should be plenty of throws and Terrell Owens gets the same matchup that Koren Robinson had last week. The game will rely on getting him the ball since Streets has struggled.

Hearst and Barlow will find a tougher venue to run than most weeks and had better hope that the overtime last week still has the defense tired.

Baltimore Notes

The Ravens come off one of their most exciting wins last week in overtime over the Seahawks. They rise to 6-5 and remain tied with the Bengals in the AFC North.

Quarterbacks:: Anthony Wright comes off a career best game of 319 yards and four scores. With such a huge win, HC Brian Billick is now saying that Wright may remain the starter for the rest of the season. Facing the softer 49er secondary may help his case.

Running Backs: Jamal Lewis rushed for 117 yards on 26 carries for his eighth 100+ yard game of the season.

Receivers: Now THAT was pulling a secret weapon out for the first time.

Marcus Robinson turned in an astounding seven catches for 131 yards and four touchdowns last week though he had never scored this season and only once had more than a single catch in any game. He is not even the normal starting wideout since Frank Sanders usually takes that blocking role. Robinson has never delivered on his promise after blowing out a knee a few years ago and his fifteen minutes of fame lasted a full sixty on Sunday. The more incredible reality was that he did all his damage to the Seahawks after the first half.

Travis Taylor had three catches for 57 yards and Frank Sanders had three as well for 66 yards but last Sunday was the "tell the grandkids" day for Robinson.

Match against the Defense: The 49ers are typically good against the run but last week surrendered 241 yards to Green, Davenport and Fisher. The road game before that Shipp had 165 yards. Now LB Jeff Ulbrich is listed as questionable with an ankle/quadriceps injury. Look for a big day from Lewis.

Do not look for a repeat performance from Robinson though he will likely be included more since he obviously clicks with Wright better than Sanders does. This should be a more typical Ravens homegame with great defense and rushing and lower scoring. Just like last week during the first half before the fuse was finished burning.

Team Comparisons - Current team rankings (1-32) for FF points scored or allowed by position
Rank (1-32)
QB
RB
WR
TE
PK
DEF
SF Scores
8
21
11
28
18
13
BAL Allows
11
12
13
23
24
28
SF AP
-3
-9
2
-5
6
15
Rank (1-32)
QB
RB
WR
TE
PK
DEF
BAL Scores
29
12
30
3
3
5
SF Allows
21
10
30
9
2
4
BAL AP
-8
-2
0
6
-1
-1
Offensive ranks = #1 gains most points, Defensive ranks = #1 allows least points
AP = Advantage Points, the net difference between a positional rank gained or allowed by the teams.
SF
BAL
2003 Game Averages
BAL
SF
Gains
Allows
QB's
Gains
Allows
206
205
Pass yards
168
234
1.2
1.3
Pass TDs
1.1
1.4
0.9
1.3
Interceptions
2.4
1.6
18
10
Rush yards
7
7
0.3
0.0
Rush TDs
0.0
0.1
---
---
RB's
---
---
113
92
Rush yards
131
95
0.3
0.4
Rush TDs
0.7
0.4
33
37
Receive yards
29
37
0.1
0.1
Receive TD's
0.0
0.0
---
---
WR's
---
---
153
133
Receive yards
79
170
1.0
0.9
Receive TD's
0.7
1.2
---
---
TE's
---
---
20
35
Receive yards
60
26
0.1
0.3
Receive TD's
0.4
0.2
---
---
PK's
---
---
1.4
1.9
Field Goals
2.4
1.0
2.1
2.1
Extra Points
2.2
2.0
---
---
DEF/ST
---
---
0.4
1.2
Fumbles
0.8
0.3
1.6
1.2
Interceptions
1.3
1.0
0.1
0.1
Touchdowns
0.3
0.0
2.2
2.7
Sacks
2.9
2.1
0.0
0.0
Safeties
0.0
0.0
49ers (4-6)
Score Opp.
49-7 CHI
24-27 @STL
12-13 CLE
7-35 @MIN
24-17 DET
19-20 @SEA
24-7 TB
13-16 @ARZ
30-10 STL
Week 10 BYE
30-14 PIT
10-20 @GB
Week 13 @BAL
Week 14 ARZ
Week 15 @CIN
Week 16 @PHI
Week 17 SEA
Ravens (6-5)
Score Opp.
15-34 @PIT
33-13 CLE
24-10 @SD
10-17 KC
Week 5 BYE
26-18 @ARZ
26-34 @CIN
26-6 DEN
24-17 JAX
22-33 @STL
6-9 @MIA
44-41 SEA
Week 13 SF
Week 14 CIN
Week 15 @OAK
Week 16 @CLE
Week 17 PIT

* Fantasy point rankings calculated using standard Huddle fantasy points