Green Bay (6-5) vs. Detroit (3-8)
Vegas Line
Total Points = 45
Predicted Outcome
Total Points =40
GB 23, DET 17
Trends
GB
Points for = 25, Points Against = 21
Over/Under = 6/5 (Away
= 3/2)
GB is under the last three games
DET
Points for = 20, Points Against = 24
Over/Under = 4/7 (Home
= 2/3)
Detroit is under three of the last four games.
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GB |
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DET |
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| Date |
Away |
Home |
Tot |
Rush |
Pass |
Tot |
Rush |
Pass |
| 9/14/2003 |
DET 6 |
GB 31 |
332 |
200 |
132 |
293 |
56 |
237 |
| 11/10/2002 |
DET 14 |
GB 40 |
503 |
150 |
353 |
362 |
126 |
236 |
| 9/22/2002 |
GB 37 |
DET 31 |
442 |
95 |
347 |
271 |
95 |
176 |
| 11/22/2001 |
GB 29 |
DET 27 |
339 |
104 |
235 |
360 |
167 |
193 |
| 9/9/2001 |
DET 6 |
GB 28 |
424 |
179 |
245 |
288 |
56 |
232 |
| 12/10/2000 |
DET 13 |
GB 26 |
330 |
128 |
202 |
293 |
103 |
190 |
| 10/8/2000 |
GB 24 |
DET 31 |
339 |
69 |
270 |
253 |
74 |
179 |
Motivation
Turkey Day is the biggest game on the Lions schedule. Detroit
is coming off two bad away losses (Seattle 14-35 and Minnesota
14-24) and now faces a Packers team that needs to run the
table to make the playoffs. Typically, the Lions really
get up for the Packers in Detroit. GB has won in the Motor
City each of the past two years, but by less than this
week's point spread.
Opinion
Vegas wants no part of the Packers at more than a touchdown
in this game. The pros think that Favre's thumb is not
right (he only attempted 15 passes last week with two interceptions)
and his history on turf and indoors is spotty at best. That
said, if this point spread continues to drift towards the
Lions, the wise guys like GB's running game vs. DET's rush
defense and the Packers receivers vs. the Lions defensive
backs enough to jump on this game if it gets below seven
points.
On the other hand, the handicappers don't like the Lions
either. Given how their offense has performed and how
few weapons QB Joey Harrington has, you can't count on
Detroit to score more than 14 points against the worst
defense. Without a running game and without any sort of
number one receiver, Harrington is forcing the ball into
places he has no business throwing into.
All things considered 45 points are too high for this
game. The pros like the Under more than either side in
this contest.
Miami (7-4) at Dallas (8-3)
Vegas Line
Total Points = 35
Predicted Outcome
Total Points = 31
Dallas 17, Miami 14
Trends
MIA
Points for = 18, Points against = 15
Over/Under = 3/8 (Away
= 0/5)
DAL
Points for = 12, Points against = 13
Over/Under = 5/6 (Home
= 3/3)
Under has won five of the last six for DAL
No recent meetings.
Motivation
The last time these teams met was the infamous Leon Lett
game where the Dallas DT had a mental lapse and touched
a blocked MIA field goal allowing the Dolphins to recover
and attempt a second three pointer that was good for the
win.
Both teams need this game. DAL needs a win to stay with
the Eagles in the NFC East and MIA has a slim one-game
lead over the Broncos for the last AFC playoff position.
Opinion
Vegas thinks this game sets up to be another defensive
battle where a turnover or mistake will win or lose the
game. The Dolphins got a spark from the return of QB Fiedler. But
like Flutie's return, that spark only seems to last one
game. Still he's the right choice in a low-scoring battle
where a bad pass will cost you the football contest.
Neither team should be able to run the ball. Dallas has
the NFL's #1 defense and the Dolphins have shut down opposing
rushers all season. Without a balanced attack, both QBs
will be asked to either win or lose this game. Given the
material each team has to work with, Vegas is taking a
pass on the sides and taking the Under in this game.
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