VOTED #1 FANTASY FOOTBALL SITE
1998, 1999, 2000, 2001 & 2002
PRIORITY NEWS   MESSAGE BOARDS JOIN   
HOME ARTICLES STATISTICS WEEKLY FEATURES TEAM LINKS NFL RESOURCES  
Predictions & Projections
By David M. Dorey
 
The Huddle
WEEK 14
December 3, 2003
Season Ticket
Sun 1 PM Sun 1 PM Sun 1 PM Sun 4 PM Sun 8:30 PM
CHI at GB IND at TEN TB at NO KC at DEN CAR at ATL
CIN at BAL OAK at PIT WAS at NYG MIA at NE Mon 9 PM
DAL at PHI SD at DET Sun 4 PM NYJ at BUF STL at CLE
HOU at JAX SEA at MIN ARZ at SF *updated Times EST
   
Houston vs Jacksonville Sun, Dec 7; 1 PM on CBS at ALLTEL Stadium
  Houston Rush Catch Pass
QB David Carr 0 0 170
RB Domanick Davis 40 10 0
RB Tony Hollings 30 0 0
TE Billy Miller 0 20 0
WR Corey Bradford 0 30 0
WR Andre Johnson 0 50 0
WR Jabar Gaffney 0 30 0
  Jacksonville Rush Catch Pass
QB Byron Leftwich 0 0 230,1
RB Fred Taylor 110,1 30 0
TE Kyle Brady 0 20 0
WR Jimmy Smith 0 80,1 0
WR Kevin Johnson 0 50 0
WR Troy Edwards 0 40 0

Game Prediction: HOU 9, JAX 20

Update: David Carr is back to practice and though not 100%, he appears likely to play. Problem is that he may not play the entire game since his shoulder still is sore and he already reinjured it last week. I am leaving his numbers along but realize that there is a chance he will start and later be replaced by Dave Ragone.

Domanick Davis still has not practiced and only did light running on Thursday. He is still questionable to play and if he cannot, then Tony Hollings and maybe also Jonathan Wells will fill in for him. His ankle has not recovered quickly from last week and he may still play, but in the best case he would be limited since he will not be 100% this week and faces one of the better rushing defenses. I am lowering his numbers and including Hollings but this may not be resolved until game time. Regardless, I would expect lowering rushing numbers from Houston.

These teams played in week four when the Texans won 24-20 with David Carr's dramatic last play leap over the goal line. This time around the game is in Jacksonville and Leftwich is better while Carr is banged up. Jacksonville takes on a whole new look in the passing game this time around with Jimmy Smith and Kevin Johnson instead of J.J. Stokes and Matthew Hatchette.

Houston still awaits their first back to back win.

Houston Notes

The Texans rise to 5-7 with their win over the Falcons last week.

Quarterbacks:: Tony Banks broke his hand last week - the bone was actually sticking out of his skin which is considered medically as "a really bad thing" and David Carr had to come into the game. Carr was only there for a series but long enough to re-aggravate his shoulder injury. He is expected to play this week and the rookie Dave Ragone will take the #2 role.

Back in week four when these teams met, David Carr threw for 234 yards and one score to Jabar Gaffney. He also rushed in another game-winning score as the clock ran out.

Running Backs: Domanick Davis ran for 101 yards and two scores last week but bruised his right quadricep and sprained his left ankle. He will likely not practice on Wednesday but is expected to be fine to play on Sunday. Back when these teams played before, Stacey Mack was still the starter and gained only 39 yards on 16 carries though he scored once. Domanick Davis had 16 carries for 53 yards.

Receivers: The injury to Carr has caused the wideouts to take it in the shorts the past few games. Last week Andre Johnson led all wide receivers with 30 yards on his only catch of the game.

In their previous game, Andre Johnson had eight catches for 97 yards while Gaffney had the lone passing score. That was his worst game of the season and while Tony Banks was no boon to Johnson's yardage, at least he had thrown touchdowns to him in weeks 11 and 12. Carr had only one game with a score thrown to Johnson.

When these teams last played, Jabar Gaffney had the lone passing score while Johnson had eight catches for 97 yards but the passing game has gone downhill since week four while the rushing game takes center stage.

Match against the Defense: Much of this will depend on the health of Carr and what Ragone could do if he has to step in. Back in week four Mack was unable to do much rushing but Davis ran pretty well - 53 yards on 16 carries in what was to become his march towards a starting role. The Jaguars rush defense has toughened up since then though, and no runner has gained over 68 yards in the past five games and that includes Jamal Lewis, Edgerrin James and Curtis Martin. Expect a lesser game from Davis.

Davis will get heavier use though in an attempt to keep Carr from having to do too much so volume could get him respectable numbers.

Other than one freak gain against Peyton Manning, the secondary has been pretty solid and has not allowed more than one score since week five. Since Carr is already banged up and an unknown rookie is holding the clipboard, expect lower numbers from the Texans passing attack.

Jacksonville Notes

The Jaguars rise to 3-9 with their win over the Buccaneers. I still contend they are the best of any bad team out there.

Quarterbacks:: Byron Leftwich turned his season around last week. After never throwing for more than 208 yards or one score - including none in the prior two games, he was threatened with benching and responded by playing one of his best games this season when he threw 20 of 34 for 224 yards and two scores against the visiting Buccaneers. Byron Leftwich threw for 231 yards and one touchdown back in week four when these teams last played.

HC Jack Del Rio made it official Monday that, unless both Byron Leftwich and David Garrard are hurt, Mark Brunell has taken his last snap as a Jaguar.

Running Backs: Fred Taylor comes off his third 100 yard game in the past four weeks by rushing for 118 yards against the Bucs last week. Taylor only managed 67 yards on 19 carries when he played the Texans but scored once.

Receivers: Jimmy Smith turned in his best game of the season last week when he had 17 passes that resulted in ten catches for 136 yards and one score. The other receivers mainly watched though Kyle Brady had his first score of the season.

The receivers are a different crew now than back in week four when Troy Edwards had 111 yards and one touchdown and the rest of the receivers - Hatchette, Stokes and Hankton only had two catches each for less than 25 yards individually against the Texans.

Match against the Defense: This could provide a feel good game for the Jaguars. At home, Fred Taylor faces a defense that has hardly stopped any runner in the past six weeks. He will have a nice game.

Leftwich can take the small confidence builder from last week and gain at least one passing score since everyone but Bledsoe has. The biggest games by wideouts have gone to the left which favors Smith who Leftwich favors anyway.

Look for a solid offensive showing but likely more rushing since the Texans will be unable to throw as well and the more running the Jaguars can do, the better off they will be.

Team Comparisons - Current team rankings (1-32) for FF points scored or allowed by position
Rank (1-32)
QB
RB
WR
TE
PK
DEF
HOU Scores
24
17
18
15
30
32
JAX Allows
11
7
14
19
22
18
HOU AP
-13
-10
-4
4
-8
-14
Rank (1-32)
QB
RB
WR
TE
PK
DEF
JAX Scores
19
10
20
19
26
30
HOU Allows
13
21
25
8
17
23
JAX AP
-6
11
5
-11
-9
-7
Offensive ranks = #1 gains most points, Defensive ranks = #1 allows least points
AP = Advantage Points, the net difference between a positional rank gained or allowed by the teams.
HOU
JAX
2003 Game Averages
JAX
HOU
Gains
Allows
QB's
Gains
Allows
188
214
Pass yards
212
229
1.2
1.2
Pass TDs
1
1.2
0.9
1.1
Interceptions
1.3
0.9
12
6
Rush yards
5
6
0.1
0.1
Rush TDs
0.2
0
---
---
RB's
---
---
100
78
Rush yards
116
107
0.9
0.6
Rush TDs
0.5
0.7
36
42
Receive yards
41
42
0
0
Receive TD's
0.3
0
---
---
WR's
---
---
121
132
Receive yards
143
159
0.9
1
Receive TD's
0.5
1
---
---
TE's
---
---
31
41
Receive yards
28
28
0.3
0.2
Receive TD's
0.2
0.2
---
---
PK's
---
---
0.9
1.8
Field Goals
1.2
1.6
2.2
2.1
Extra Points
1.8
2.3
---
---
DEF/ST
---
---
0.6
1.1
Fumbles
0.8
0.6
1
1.4
Interceptions
1.1
1.1
0
0.1
Touchdowns
0
0.3
1.3
1.6
Sacks
1.2
2
0
0
Safeties
0
0.2
Texans (5-7)
Score Opp.
21-20 @MIA
10-31 @NO
14-42 KC
24-20 JAX
Week 5 BYE
17-38 @TEN
14-19 NYJ
21-30 @IND
14-10 CAR
27-34 @CIN
12-10 @BUF
20-23 NE
17-13 ATL
Week 14 @JAX
Week 15 @TB
Week 16 TEN
Week 17 IND
Jaguars (3-9)
Score Opp.
23-24 @CAR
17-38 BUF
13-23 @IND
20-24 @HOU
27-21 SD
10-24 MIA
Week 7 BYE
17-30 TEN
17-24 @BAL
28-23 IND
3-10 @TEN
10-13 @NYJ
17-10 TB
Week 14 HOU
Week 15 @NE
Week 16 NO
Week 17 @ATL

* Fantasy point rankings calculated using standard Huddle fantasy points