VOTED #1 FANTASY FOOTBALL SITE
1998, 1999, 2000, 2001 & 2002
PRIORITY NEWS   MESSAGE BOARDS JOIN   
HOME ARTICLES STATISTICS WEEKLY FEATURES TEAM LINKS NFL RESOURCES  
Predictions & Projections
By David M. Dorey
 
The Huddle
WEEK 14
December 3, 2003
Season Ticket
Sun 1 PM Sun 1 PM Sun 1 PM Sun 4 PM Sun 8:30 PM
CHI at GB IND at TEN TB at NO KC at DEN CAR at ATL
CIN at BAL OAK at PIT WAS at NYG MIA at NE Mon 9 PM
DAL at PHI SD at DET Sun 4 PM NYJ at BUF STL at CLE
HOU at JAX SEA at MIN ARZ at SF *updated Times EST
   
NY Jets vs Buffalo Sun, Dec 7; 4 PM on CBS at Ralph Wilson Stadium
  New York Jets Rush Catch Pass
QB Chad Pennington 0 0 220,2
RB Curtis Martin 70,1 20 0
TE Anthony Becht 0 30,1 0
WR Reggie Swayne 0 40 0
WR Curtis Conway 0 50,1 0
WR Santana Moss 0 60 0
  Buffalo Rush Catch Pass
QB Drew Bledsoe 0 0 200,1
RB Travis Henry 60,1 20 0
TE M. Campbell 0 20 0
WR Eric Moulds 0 60,1 0
WR Josh Reed 0 40 0
WR Bobby Shaw 0 50 0

Game Prediction: NYJ 21, BUF 17

Update: Since the starting LT Jonas Jennings is out and RG Mike Pucillo is doubtful, I am lowering the rushing numbers for Henry who needs solid blocking to shine. Drew Bledsoe has returned to practice and appears probable to play.

The Jets already defeated the Bills 30-3 back in week six. The Bills look a lot better coming off a 24-7 win against the Giants but the anemic scoring of the previous five games is more indicative of what they can do. The Bills are little better than they were in week six and yet the Jets are improved.

Take this as a tougher fight in Buffalo this time, but one that Pennington can win.

NY Jets Notes

The Jets rise to 5-7 with their big win over the Titans on Monday night.

Quarterbacks:: Chad Pennington threw for 231 yards and two scores last week and in his five starts now has 12 touchdowns with no games less than 219 yards. When the Jets played the Bills back in week six, even Testaverde threw for three touchdowns against the Bills.

Running Backs: Curtis Martin only gained 70 yards on 22 carries against the Titans, but he finally scored for the first time this season. His production was a near mirror to his previous game against the Bills of 77 yards on 20 carries back in week six. This is the second consecutive week where Martin had every rushing play in the game and both were wins.

Receivers: Santana Moss had 76 yards on three catches last week and it was his first game since week four that he never scored. Moss started his seven game streak with his first touchdown against the Bills in week six.

Match against the Defense: The Jets waxed the Bills 30-3 in week six and this is a better team now. Pennington has replaced Testaverde and Curtis Martin had three 100 yard games since then and no longer is sharing any carries. In those odd vicious circle of the AFC East, the Jets have beaten the Bills in their last three meetings and never scored less than 30 points in doing so. In their last two meetings - both in New York, the Jets have outscored them 61 to 13 points. The game in Buffalo last year was won by the Jets 37-31.

The Bills have allowed multiple passing scores only twice this season - Trent Green had two and Testaverde had three.

One reason for that statistic is that the Bills have been bad at times against the run which lessened the need for opponents to pass. The Bills are an inconsistent team that can play well enough to stuff a bad team like the Giants, and yet lose at home to the Texans only two games prior. Likewise, Curtis Martin had 77 yards in their last meeting and in the two games last season he gained either 120 yards or merely 6 yards rushing.

The Jets are a better team this time around but they are visitors. Pennington only had 178 yards and two scores in his only game against them last season.

Buffalo Notes

Quarterbacks:: Drew Bledsoe lit up the Giants last week for 252 yards and two scores. Not that all opponents have not been doing likewise to the Giants. It was the first time Bledsoe had thrown a scoring pass in five games which is more telling. Which game is the anomaly and what four games are the standard?

Bledsoe threw for 202 yards against the Jets in week six, but never scored and had an interception and a lost fumble.

Running Backs: Travis Henry gained 113 yards on 26 carries last week and scored for the first time since week seven. It was his third 100 yard game this season. Henry only gained 53 yards on 18 carries in the last meeting against the Jets.

Receivers: Since the Giants were allowing lots of passing yards, Eric Moulds had 66 yards and five catches while Bobby Shaw had 87 yards and one touchdown. It was Moulds best game in a month and Shaw finally scored again after being blanked since week four. Josh Reed had one of his best efforts of the year with six catches for 61 yards.

Back in week six, Eric Moulds did not play and the best receiver was Bobby Shaw who had six catches for 58 yards.

Match against the Defense: The more important factor at play here is that the Jets have historically been a better team the deeper into the season while the Bills have been one to wilt. Take away the one 24 point win last week and the Bills have not scored over 14 points in their last four games. And this is against the team that popped them 30-3 seven weeks ago.

Look for Bledsoe to duck back under 210 yards passing where all but Manning and Collins have remained this season. The Jets are not the Giants even if they share a stadium.

Henry had little success in their first meeting but should do a little better this go around. The Jets have been soft against the run this season unless they get ahead and force opponents to throw which could happen here.

Team Comparisons - Current team rankings (1-32) for FF points scored or allowed by position
Rank (1-32)
QB
RB
WR
TE
PK
DEF
NYJ Scores
8
19
7
23
12
27
BUF Allows
3
18
8
21
13
22
NYJ AP
-5
-1
1
-2
1
-5
Rank (1-32)
QB
RB
WR
TE
PK
DEF
BUF Scores
31
26
26
29
32
29
NYJ Allows
7
28
12
11
7
5
BUF AP
-24
2
-14
-18
-25
-24
Offensive ranks = #1 gains most points, Defensive ranks = #1 allows least points
AP = Advantage Points, the net difference between a positional rank gained or allowed by the teams.
NYJ
BUF
2003 Game Averages
BUF
NYJ
Gains
Allows
QB's
Gains
Allows
230
187
Pass yards
189
220
1.8
1
Pass TDs
0.5
0.8
0.7
0.4
Interceptions
1.2
0.7
3
8
Rush yards
2
3
0
0
Rush TDs
0.2
0.1
----- 
---
RB's
---
----- 
99
94
Rush yards
95
132
0.4
0.9
Rush TDs
0.5
1.1
51
22
Receive yards
26
38
0.1
0
Receive TD's
0.1
0.1
----- 
---
WR's
---
----- 
154
135
Receive yards
145
140
1.5
0.6
Receive TD's
0.3
0.7
----- 
---
TE's
---
----- 
25
30
Receive yards
18
43
0.2
0.4
Receive TD's
0.1
0.0
----- 
---
PK's
---
----- 
1.7
1.5
Field Goals
1.1
1.2
2.3
1.9
Extra Points
1.3
2.3
----- 
---
DEF/ST
---
----- 
0.6
1
Fumbles
0.5
0.6
0.7
1.1
Interceptions
0.4
0.6
0
0
Touchdowns
0.1
0.2
2.7
3.4
Sacks
2
2.1
0
0
Safeties
0.3
0
Jets (5-7)
Score Opp.
13-16 @WAS
10-21 MIA
16-23 @NE
6-17 DAL
Week 5 BYE
30-3 BUF
19-14 @HOU
17-24 @PHI
28-31 NYG
27-24 @OAK
31-38 @IND
13-10 JAX
24-17 TEN
Week 14 @BUF
Week 15 PIT
Week 16 NE
Week 17 @MIA
Bills (5-7)
Score Opp.
31-0 NE
38-17 @JAX
7-17 @MIA
13-23 PHI
22-16 CIN
3-30 @NYJ
24-7 WAS
5-38 @KC
Week 9 BYE
6-10 @DAL
10-12 HOU
14-17 IND
24-7 @NYG
Week 14 NYJ
Week 15 @TEN
Week 16 MIA
Week 17 @NE

* Fantasy point rankings calculated using standard Huddle fantasy points