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Predictions & Projections
By David M. Dorey
 
The Huddle
WEEK 17
December 24, 2003
Season Ticket
Sat 1:30 PM Sat 8:30 PM Sun 1 PM Sun 1 PM Sun 4 PM
BUF at NE PHI at WAS CHI at KC JAX at ATL CAR at NYG
Sat 5 PM Sun 8:30 PM CLE at CIN NYJ at MIA MIN at ARZ
SEA at SF PIT at BAL DAL at NO STL at DET DEN at GB
  IND at HOU TB at TEN OAK at SD
   
NY Jets vs Miami Sun, Dec 28; 1 PM on CBS at Pro Player Stadium
  NY Jets at MIA Rush Catch Pass
QB Chad Pennington 0 0 220
RB Curtis Martin 50 10 0
TE Anthony Becht 0 30 0
WR Reggie Swayne 0 40 0
WR Curtis Conway 0 50 0
WR Santana Moss 0 60 0
  Miami vs NYJ Rush Catch Pass
QB Jay Fiedler 0 0 190,1
RB Ricky Williams 100,1 10 0
TE Randy McMichael 0 50 0
WR Chris Chambers 0 80,1 0
WR Derrius Thompson 0 30 0
WR James McKnight 0 30 0

Game Prediction: NYJ 6, MIA 20

Update: James McKnight is expected to miss the final game due to a sprained ankle.

A meaningless game between two teams that are bitterly disappointed over their seasons.

NY Jets Notes

The Jets fall to 6-9 and take no consolation from being the best record in the cellar of any division.

The Jets wind down the season with a depressing revelation - Chad Pennington may not be a savior quite yet. Last week he had two rushing touchdowns - his first of the season and while he had 229 yards passing, he threw for five interceptions which actually kills a drive pretty quickly. Pennington has not thrown a score in the last three games.

Curtis Martin ran well last week, gaining 84 yards on 25 carries against the stingy Patriot defense and he has three 100 yard games this season. Unfortunately he only has one touchdown and two fumbles on the year. Facing the Dolphins in Miami is not likely to raise he touchdown totals. Martin only had 32 yards on ten carries in his previous meeting against the Dolphins.

Santana Moss had 52 yards on five catches and was chosen as an alternate to the Pro Bowl since he has ten touchdowns on the season. The problem is that he has not scored in the last four games. One of his best games of the season did come back in week two against Miami when he had 142 yards and a touchdown - his first of the season.

Match against the Defense: The Jets already lost to the Dolphins 21-10 back in week two but Testaverde had his best game of the season then, throwing for 373 yards and one score. But Pennington has never thrown for more than 167 yards against the Fins and has never thrown a touchdown. He should remain around 200 to 230 yards passing as most have in Miami and has a chance at one touchdown but a motivated Dolphin defense should look to close the season on a high note.

Curtis Martin is not a good play here. The Dolphins are still sore about missing the playoffs and should be motivated to turn in a nice season finale.

Miami Notes

The Dolphins rise to 9-6 but have already missed out on the playoffs. HC Dave Wannstedt's job is likely in jeopardy after bringing in pricey defensive free agents with the same results as always.

Against the Bills, Jay Fiedler only completed 8 of 17 passes for 46 yards and one score. His best yardage of the year was only 239 yards and he had 190 yards and one score in the previous meeting against the Jets.

Ricky Williams had 111 yards on 29 carries last week for his seventh 100 yard effort of the year and he gained 125 yards and one score against the Jets in week two. Williams has been a workhorse to be certain, he leads the NFL with 372 carries but only has 1299 yards for an average of 3.5 yards per carry. Compare that to the #2 in attempts Jamal Lewis who has 12 less carries but 752 more yards.

Williams is reported to need shoulder surgery after the season is over but will once again shoot up with painkillers to play this week.

Chris Chambers caught his tenth touchdown last week but has not exceeded 100 yards since week one against the Texans. He had 91 yards in his last meeting against the Jets.

Match against the Defense: The Dolphins had a nice win as a visitor in week two and these two clubs are not that different since then. Expect that Williams nears the century mark from sheer volume of carries while the Miami defense tries to win this game.

The Jets secondary has handled the Fins well before the there is little reason to expect Fiedler to turn around his declining performance.

Team Comparisons - Current team rankings (1-32) for FF points scored or allowed by position
Rank (1-32)
QB
RB
WR
TE
PK
DEF
NYJ Scores
9
24
17
30
23
31
MIA Allows
7
13
3
13
12
14
NYJ AP
-2
-11
-14
-17
-11
-17
Rank (1-32)
QB
RB
WR
TE
PK
DEF
MIA Scores
25
19
24
26
11
6
NYJ Allows
3
16
23
5
1
12
MIA AP
-22
-3
-1
-21
-10
6
Offensive ranks = #1 gains most points, Defensive ranks = #1 allows least points
AP = Advantage Points, the net difference between a positional rank gained or allowed by the teams.
NYJ
MIA
2003 Game Averages
MIA
NYJ
Gains
Allows
QB's
Gains
Allows
202
188
Pass yards
159
199
1.0
0.7
Pass TDs
0.8
1.0
1.7
1.3
Interceptions
1.3
0.8
7
13
Rush yards
6
0
0.8
0.2
Rush TDs
0.3
0.0
---
---
RB's
---
---
100
91
Rush yards
116
132
0.2
0.7
Rush TDs
0.7
0.8
55
34
Receive yards
26
18
0.0
0.3
Receive TD's
0.0
0.0
---
---
WR's
---
---
127
113
Receive yards
109
153
1.0
0.3
Receive TD's
0.8
1.0
---
---
TE's
---
---
20
41
Receive yards
25
28
0.0
0.0
Receive TD's
0.0
0.0
---
---
PK's
---
---
1.2
1.5
Field Goals
1.7
0.7
2.0
1.7
Extra Points
2.2
2.2
---
---
DEF/ST
---
---
0.3
0.7
Fumbles
1.3
0.2
0.8
1.3
Interceptions
1.3
1.5
0.0
0.2
Touchdowns
0.3
0.2
1.2
2.0
Sacks
3.3
2.7
0.0
0.2
Safeties
0.0
0.0
Jets (6-9)
Score Opp.
13-16 @WAS
10-21 MIA
16-23 @NE
6-17 DAL
Week 5 BYE
30-3 BUF
19-14 @HOU
17-24 @PHI
28-31 NYG
27-24 @OAK
31-38 @IND
13-10 JAX
24-17 TEN
6-17 @BUF
6-0 PIT
16-21 NE
Week 17 @MIA
Dolphins (9-6)
Score Opp.
20-21 HOU
21-10 @NYJ
17-7 BUF
Week 4 BYE
23-10 @NYG
24-10 @JAX
13-19 NE
26-10 @SD
17-23 IND
7-31 @TEN
9-6 BAL
24-23 WAS
41-20 @DAL
0-12 @NE
27-34 PHI
20-3 @BUF
Week 17 NYJ

* Fantasy point rankings calculated using standard Huddle fantasy points