Indianapolis (14-4) at New England (15-2)
Total Points = 43.5
Total Points = 41
NE 24, IND 17
Points for =29, Points against = 21
Over/Under =11/7 (Away
Points for =22, Points against = 15
Over/Under =7/9/1 (Home
Last four meetings have gone over
NE has won the last six meetings ATS
NE is 8-1 ATS at home
IND is 5-0 ATS as a dog
Under is 6-1 in NE's last seven at home.
|| NE 38
|| IND 34
|| NE 38
|| IND 17
|| IND 13
|| NE 44
|| NE 23
|| IND 30
|| IND 16
|| NE 24
The Patriots won the 11/30 contest on a goal line stand
at their own one-yard line. Indianapolis contributed to
the loss by missing a number of kicks.
Here we go again. After Carolina and Indianapolis burned
the touts last week, you may have thought that the pros
would give a nod to one of the upstarts. But no...
their contrarian nature gets the best of them again this
week as they go against the hot hands.
Speaking of hot hands, what team is hotter than the Indianapolis
Colts? You may follow the NFL for your entire lifetime
and never see two straight games were a team didn't punt. No
one is stopping the Indianapolis offense, especially QB
Payton Manning. As one tout put it, you have a guy that
has a history of doing nothing in the post season and he
goes out and plays two perfect games, go figure.
Indianapolis has outgained the Patriots in four of the
last five meetings. Unfortunately, that yardage advantage
hasn't translated into points as New England has covered
the spread in each of these contests.
The reason for that success may be Patriots HC Bill Belichick. New
England's Head Coach is 9-1 ATS against Manning as a Head
Coach and as a Defensive Coordinator for the Jets. That
success may come down to design, the Patriots' secondary
plays tough over the middle of the field and the Colts
love to throw the ball between the hash marks. New England's
defensive design funnels WRs to New England's safeties
and that means to S Rodney Harrison who is still one of
the most feared hitters in the NFL. A big part of the
Colts offense is yards after the catch, and if they have
to throw to the sidelines, YAC is limited.
New England's offense doesn't have to play their "A" game
against a very weak Colts' defense. Indianapolis didn't
have to punt last week, but neither did Kansas City. The
Colts are giving up about five and a half yards per rush
and every member of their secondary went out of last week's
game with some kind of injury. The Patriots have their
own QB on a hot streak; Tom Brandy has never lost a playoff
Pretty tough to win two road games as dogs in the playoffs. Teams
in this situation are 7-17-1 ATS. Vegas thinks the public
money will come down on the Colts this week and they'll
take those extra points and play the Patriots
Well known touts on the Patriots: Andy Iskoe, Phil Steele,
Brent Crow, Mike Lee, Teddy Covers (lean), Scott Spencer.
Well known pros on the Colts: none (at deadline).
Carolina (13-5) at Philadelphia (13-4)
Total Points = 36
Total Points = 39
PHI 23, CAR 16
Points for =21, Points against = 19
Over/Under =10/7/1 (Away
Points for =23, Points against = 18
Over/Under = 9/7/1(Home
|| PHI 25
|| CAR 16
CAR is 5-1 in last six as a dog
PHI is 10-2 ATS is last 12
Over is 6-1-1 in PHI's last eight home games
The Eagles beat the Panthers in Carolina earlier this
season 25-19. Philadelphia has lost three straight NFC
This is the Eagles third straight trip to the NFC Championship
game. After two straight overtime games (a loss to San
Francisco and a victory over the Packers), they're pretty
happy and pretty lucky to be there.
The Eagles stats last week were terrible. Philadelphia
can't stop the run (GB 210 rushing yards (5.7 yards avg.
per rush) last week and lost). The Eagles can't protect
McNabb (the Packers had eight sacks) and, other than McNabb's
scrambles, they don't have a running game (Staley 45 rushing
yards, Buckhalter 12 rushing yards, McNabb 107 rushing
yards). Philadelphia was terrible on third down (PHI 4 - 17,
GB 10 - 19) and had to convert two fourth downs to keep
drives alive. Bottom line, the Eagles won ugly like they
have all season. If you're a stat guy, you've been betting
against Philadelphia all year, and losing money. All those
numbers may be meaningless again this week.
The previous game in this series is another example were
stats didn't translate into points. Carolina out rushed
(136-124) and out passed (200-159) Philadelphia at home
and lost the game on the scoreboard 25-16. Typical Eagles
victory. They let you move the ball between the 20's then
find a way to keep opposing teams out of the end zone.
Carolina looks like a team that matches up very well against
Philadelphia. The Panthers have a great rushing game and
the Eagles can't stop the rush. Carolina should be able
to control the clock. The Panthers have the better special
teams (especially kick returns with Westbrook out) so they
should win the field position game. If the Packers can
get eight sacks, there's no reason why the NFL's best front
four can't get a least five on McNabb.
So, why do the touts like (although it's not universal)
the Eagles? It comes down to experience. Philadelphia
has been in this game the last two seasons, the current
Panthers have not.
Notable touts on the Eagles: Phil Steele, Mike Lee, Andy
Notable touts on the Panthers: Teddy Covers (lean), Brent
Crow, Scott Spencer.