The season is slowly taking shape, and that makes it simpler to do predictions -- far, far from an exact science, of course, but easier nonetheless.

This is the time of year when the cream tends to begin its rise... and there are some exemplary matchups this week which further separate the have's from the wanna-be's.

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2003 PREDICTION RECORDS:
Straight-Up -- 15-8 (65%)
Against-The-Spread -- 12-11 (52%)

LAST WEEK: 5-2 Straight-Up, 5-2 Against-The-Spread

Week 4 Schedule (the top games of the week)

THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 18

Virginia Tech 27, Texas A&M (+14 1/2) 16 -- This Hokies team is arguably slightly less talented than others of the recent past, but at home before a Thursday national TV audience, it is still clearly the one to beat. A&M may be down a little this year, but the Aggies are unbeaten and tend to play tough as underdogs.

SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 20

Miami 29, at Boston College (+13) 21 -- The Golden Eagles are a solid bunch, and they have an amazing record of 14 straight home conference games in which they've covered the spread. In the last five meetings between these two in Boston, the 'Canes have won 'em all but only covered once.

Florida (-2 1/2) 31, Tennessee 23 -- The Gators have surpassed 60 points twice in their first three games, against inferior foes, and played Miami tough in between. Tennessee is unbeaten but mostly unimpressive. The road team has covered three straight in this series, but the friendly spread says that streak ends.

Florida State 31, Colorado (+19) 17 -- The Buffs are susceptible on defense, yielding points and yardage in big bunches in last week's loss to Washington State, but the Seminoles nearly were upset by Georgia Tech and Colorado is 22-6 ATS in its last 28 games as road underdogs.

Oklahoma (-17) 30, UCLA 7 -- This is a mismatch in favor of OU's defense, when you consider UCLA could only muster two field goals last week against a very mediocre Illinois team.

Michigan 27, at Oregon (+7 1/2) 24 -- The Wolverines have been fabulous, outscoring their first three opponents a combined 133-10 and blanking Notre Dame last week. But this game has all the makings of an ambush -- the unbeaten Ducks are balanced and confident, if not quite as talented. This game could be labeled the Ugly Uniform Bowl, but the game itself should be a thing of beauty for fans.

LSU (-2) 26, Georgia 20 -- Both teams are 3-0 and have feasted primarily on weak opposition, so something has to give. Nothing complicated here, I just like the Tigers at home in a big matchup.

Arizona State (+7) 33, at Iowa 28 -- My upset special, and it admittedly goes against the grain because the Hawkeyes have played exceptionally well while ASU has been good enough to win, but not much more. Last week Iowa won its rivalry game with Iowa State convincingly, and I'm predicting a letdown -- Iowa is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 immediately following the game with ISU.