The
first real BCS poll of the season came out this week,
and while there are some obvious differences when compared
to my humble rankings, an obvious pattern emerges --
Oklahoma, Miami and Virginia Tech will each determine
its own destiny.
In my systematically inclined poll, the trick is determining
which of the 1-loss teams deserve to be ranked the highest.
As I struggle with that lofty task -- there were 24 schools
sporting one defeat going into last week's schedule --
it dawned on me that I need to devise a system of sorts.
And so, here's my step-by-step "procedure" for
ranking teams with the same number of defeats, in order
of criteria: 1) head-to-head results (when and where
applicable); 2) overall strength of conference/schedule,
and 3) quality of conqueror (how good is the team that
beat the subject squad?).
Of course, I have to factor in things like locations
of losses (losing at home is, obviously, worse) and less
tangible factors like the general perception of how well
a team is performing. It's far from simple, but it sure
is fun.
So with all that to digest, please accept my latest
top 10:
Bob's Top 10
| 1. |
OKLAHOMA (7-0) |
No easy road
to the Sugar Bowl -- games against Oklahoma State
and Texas Tech still loom, plus the conference championship
game. |
| 2. |
MIAMI (7-0) |
The Canes' regular season
run may be about over -- it's going to be tough for
them to win at Blacksburg next week. |
| 3. |
VIRGINIA TECH (7-0) |
Must be careful not to get
caught looking ahead when it travels to West Virginia
for a Wednesday night clash. |
| 4. |
TCU (7-0) |
Playing just well enough to
stay unscathed -- Frogs figure to stumble at least
once over the next four weeks. |
| 5. |
NORTHERN ILLINOIS (7-0) |
Severe tests the next two
weeks, at Bowling Green and at home against Ball
State. Can't believe I'm writing this stuff about
the MAC! |
| 6. |
USC (6-1) |
A scenario for USC to play
in the Sugar Bowl -- VTech beats Miami, then loses
to Virginia in season finale as Troy wins out. |
| 7. |
LSU (6-1) |
Talented Tigers still control
own destiny toward trip to BCS bowl -- but SEC's
brutal schedule is a landmine every week. |
| 8. |
GEORGIA (6-1) |
Desperately wants another
shot at LSU in SEC Title Game, but Auburn or even
Ole
Miss might foil those plans. |
| 9. |
FLORIDA STATE (6-1) |
Among the country's finest
teams? Nah, I probably went overboard last week.
But
surviving at Virginia does show resiliency. |
| 10. |
WASHINGTON STATE (6-1) |
Like Pac-10 rival USC, Cougars
just an OT road loss from perfect. Must avoid letdown
against Oregon State before meeting Trojans. |
| Also considered: The entire Big-10
-- let's see... Purdue beat Wisconsin, which beat
Ohio State, which beat Bowling Green, which beat
Purdue. Iowa lost to Michigan State, which lost to...
Louisiana Tech? At home? I'm definitely confused
now. |
2003 PREDICTION RECORDS:
Straight-Up -- 40-20 (67%)
Against-The-Spread -- 29-31 (48%)
LAST WEEK: 8-0 Straight-Up, 5-3 Against-The-Spread
Week 9 Schedule (the top games of the week)
WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 22
No. 3 Virginia Tech (-12 1/2) 37, at West Virginia
20 -- Think the Hokies might get caught looking ahead
to next week's showdown with Miami? Think again,
because
West Virginia was an upset winner at Blacksburg last
season, 21-18, and the Hokies have undoubtedly vowed
revenge ever since.
THURSDAY, OCTOBER 23
Georgia Tech (+2 1/2) 23, Maryland 20 -- Tough to tell
which Yellowjackets team will show, but at home on
national TV, I'll take the slight dogs against the
Terps, who have won five in a row after starting
0-2. Tech had won four straight in this series at home
before
Maryland's 20-17 win in 2001. Terps rolled last season
at home.
SATURDAY, OCTOBER 25
Michigan 31, Purdue (+4 1/2) 28 -- I stop short of picking
the Boilermakers straight-up because, well, it's just
too atraditional a choice. But in the last nine meetings,
Michigan has won seven but is just 3-5-1 against the
spread. Wolverines unbeaten at home this season, Boilermakers
2-0 on the road against decent teams Wake Forest and
Wisconsin. Line opened at 6 1/2 points.
Bowling Green (-4) 35, No. 5 Northern Illinois 27 --
BG beat Purdue this season on the road -- I'm impressed
by that. NIU falls because its conference slate is surprisingly
staunch, and it can't/won't win them all.
Texas A&M (+6) 29, Oklahoma State 26 -- My upset
pick for this week, because the Cowboys were so sky-high
in their 51-49 thriller win over Texas Tech last week
that's there's nowhere to go but down... especially considering
the Pokes' anticipated clash with No. 1 Oklahoma next
week.
No. 7 LSU (-3 1/2) 20, Auburn 13 -- Wouldn't surprise
me if Auburn covered and still lost, because this one
is likely to be close throughout. But LSU is ultra-tough
at home, and unlikely to stumble twice there this season.
Auburn cruised last season at home, 31-7, but LSU won
last meeting at Baton Rouge in 2001.
No. 10 Washington State (-8) 38, Oregon State 20 --
Wazzou's chances of being flat the week prior to squaring
off with USC would be more pronounced if Oregon State
wasn't such a doggone good team. At home, the Cougars
should pull away. Last meeting was at Spokane in 2001,
won by the Cougars, 34-27.
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