An objective way to rank college
football (sort of)
Click here to go straight to the
bowl picks.
It appears that I've become somewhat infatuated
with figuring out
a way
to fairly
rank
major
college football teams.
I've utilized various philosophies, attempted to persuade
the masses of my perception of what is right, and been
both lauded and loathed because of it.
So finally, I just decided it was time to sit down and
come up with a basic, by-the-numbers system. After toiling
off and on the last several weeks, I present to you the
following outline for a scoring system that might help
settle the century-long debate about what constitutes a
Division I football champion.
Let me quickly point out that the following is really
a rough draft, and I've simplified it significantly for
ease of presentation. In reality, the exact scores can
broken down as much as is desired and needed in the interest
of fairness. So, instead of picking apart the specific
numbers, I'd like those of you kind enough to review my
system to focus on the general theme of what I'm obviously
attempting to accomplish.
To summarize the system, it gives numerical scores for
victories over quality, middle-of-the-pack, and bottom-feeder
teams, with higher scores achieved for road accomplishments
and three different levels to account for margin of victory.
You'll notice that the cut-off for victory margin is simply
more than 20 points. I don't want to be guilty of encouraging
the running up of scores here.
I weighted victories over quality foes, and losses to
weak teams, inproportional to the overall system. A contending
team can not only hurt itself by losing, but also if it
struggles to defeat a weaker team.
Games at neutral sites are averaged between the scores
for home and away. OK, see what you think:
COLLEGE FOOTBALL RATING SYSTEM
Victories
| Over Quality Opponents (defined
as teams in the AP Top 25 at time of applying system) |
| By 20+ points on the road |
25 units |
| By 20+ points at home |
20 |
| By 10-19 points on the road |
17.5 |
| By 10-19 points at home |
15 |
| By 4-9 points on the road |
15 |
| By 4-9 points at home |
12.5 |
| By 3 points or less on the road |
10 |
| By 3 points or less at home |
7.5 |
| |
|
| Over Mediocre Opponents (defined as all
teams not included above who have records of one under
.500 or better) |
| By 20+ points on the road |
15 units |
| By 20+ points at home |
12.5 |
| By 10-19 points on the road |
10 |
| By 10-19 points at home |
7.5 |
| By 4-9 points on the road |
7.5 |
| By 4-9 points at home |
5.0 |
| By 3 points or less on the road |
5.0 |
| By 3 points or less at home |
2.5 |
| |
|
| Over Weak Opponents (defined as all teams
with records two games below .500 or worse, and all
non-Division I teams) |
| By 20+ points on the road |
10 units |
| By 20+ points at home |
7.5 |
| By 10-19 points on the road |
7.5 |
| By 10-19 points at home |
5 |
| By 4-9 points on the road |
5 |
| By 4-9 points at home |
2.5 |
| By 3 points or less on the road |
2.5 |
| By 3 points or less at home |
0 |
Defeats
| To Quality Opponents |
| By 3 points or less on the road |
0 units |
| By 3 points or less at home |
-2.5 |
| By 4-9 points on the road |
-5 |
| By 4-9 points at home |
-5 |
| By 10-19 points on the road |
-7.5 |
| By 10-19 points at home |
-10 |
| By 20+ points on the road |
-12.5 |
| By 20+ points at home |
-15 |
| |
|
| To Mediocre Opponents |
| By 3 points or less on the road |
-5 units |
| By 3 points or less at home |
-7.5 |
| By 4-9 points on the road |
-7.5 |
| By 4-9 points at home |
-10 |
| By 10-19 points on the road |
-12.5 |
| By 10-19 points at home |
-15 |
| By 20+ points on the road |
-17.5 |
| By 20+ points at home |
-20 |
| |
|
| To Weak Opponents |
| By 3 points or less on the road |
-10 units |
| By 3 points or less at home |
-12.5 |
| By 4-9 points on the road |
-15 |
| By 4-9 points at home |
-15 |
| By 10-19 points on the road |
-17.5 |
| By 10-19 points at home |
-20 |
| By 20+ points on the road |
-20 |
| By 20+ points at home |
-25 |
Quite simply, a team's aggregate score is divided by the
number of games played to determine an average. It's not
altogether unlike the current BCS, although in my system
it's the high score that wins.
Applying my system to the present season, USC would finish
first with an average of 10.21 units, Oklahoma second at
9.81 and LSU third at 9.62. Interestingly, one-loss Miami
of Ohio is fourth, at 8.84, primarily because of two decisive
victories over Bowling Green that are considered "quality
wins."
W-L record isn't everything though... After Michigan comes
Kansas State, which has three defeats.
On closer examination of the Trojans, Sooners and Tigers,
it was USC's four decisive road wins over medium opposition
and its home rout of Washington State that lifted its score.
Oklahoma was No. 1, of course, before losing the one-sided
decision to Kansas State on a field which was neutral for
both. LSU's non-conference slate was almost entirely from
the "weak" category.
The polls stress more than simply winning, so I guess
my system should as well. Below is my system's top 10,
with boxes showing this year's individual game results
for USC, Oklahoma and LSU, for comparison.
My system still has some issues to be resolved, most assuredly,
but the primary premise seems valid.
My System's Top 10:
1. USC (10.21 units average)
2. Oklahoma (9.62)
3.
LSU (9.42)
4. Miami of Ohio (8.84)
5.
Michigan (8.13)
6. Kansas State (7.69)
7.
Tennessee (7.08)
8. Miami of Florida (6.88)
9.
Ohio State (6.54)
10. Florida State (6.18)
USC (11-1)
Won at Auburn, 23-0 (15 units)
Won vs. BYU, 35-18 (5 units)
Won vs. Hawai'i, 61-32 (12.5
units)
Lost at California, 34-31 in OT (-5 units)
Won at Arizona
State, 37-17 (10 units)
Won vs. Stanford, 44-21 (7.5 units)
Won at Notre Dame, 45-14
(10 units)
Won at Washington, 43-23 (12.5 units)
Won vs. Washington State,
43-16 (20 units)
Won at Arizona, 45-0 (10 units)
Won vs. UCLA, 44-20 (12.5
units)
Won vs. Oregon State, 52-27 (12.5 units)
Total = 122.5 units/12 games = 10.21
Oklahoma (12-1)
Won vs. North Texas, 37-3 (12.5 units)
Won at Alabama,
20-13 (5 units)
Won vs. Fresno State, 52-28 (12.5 units)
Won vs. UCLA, 59-24
(12.5 units)
Won at Iowa State, 53-7 (10 units)
Won vs. Texas at Dallas,
TX, 65-13 (22.5 units)
Won vs. Missouri, 34-13 (12.5 units)
Won at Colorado, 34-20
(10 units)
Won vs. Oklahoma State, 52-9 (12.5 units)
Won vs. Texas A&M,
77-0 (7.5 units)
Won vs. Baylor, 41-3 (7.5 units)
Won at Texas Tech, 52-20
(15 units)
Lost to Kansas State at Kansas City, Mo., 35-7
(-12.5 units)
Total = 120 units/13 games = 9.62
LSU (12-1)
Won vs. La-Monroe, 49-7 (7.5 units)
Won at Arizona, 59-13
(10 units)
Won vs. Western Illinois, 35-7 (7.5 units)
Won vs. Georgia,
17-10 (12.5 units)
Won at Mississippi State, 41-6 (10 units)
Lost vs. Florida,
19-7 (-10 units)
Won at South Carolina, 33-7 (10 units)
Won vs. Auburn, 31-7
(12.5 units)
Won vs. Louisiana Tech, 49-10 (7.5 units)
Won at Alabama,
27-3 (10 units)
Won at Mississippi, 17-14 (10 units)
Won vs. Arkansas, 52-20
(12.5 units)
Won vs. Georgia at Atlanta, Ga., 34-13 (22.5
units)
Total = 122.5 units/13 games = 9.42
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