From now until the start of the season, Dave
Foral (The Huddle's
IDP guru) will offer weekly, value-based rankings of defensive
linemen, linebackers
and defensive backs. The methodology
is one he has
used for several years and is composed of the following:
Past Performance - In assigning projections, Dave
looks at how the player performed both during the
entire previous
year, and in the last 4 games of the year.
If a starting player is a rookie, or a veteran involved in a trade or free-agent
move, his predecessor’s production is also looked at, and how these
numbers might be affected by a superior or inferior player. Lastly, if there
is a change
in coaching or scheme, that effect on how the IDP’s performance
is anticipated.
The scoring system used is:
Solo Tackle = 2 points
Assisted Tackle = 1 point
Fumble Recovery = 2 points
Safety = 2 points
Sack = 6 points
Touchdown = 6 points
Interception = 10 points
Intangibles - Once projected points
per game are complete, each IDP is evaluated on additional criteria
that will have a bearing on performance. A positive in any of these categories
results in a value of 1 given to the IDP in that category. These values are
then added to the fantasy points per game calculated using the "Past Performance
criteria above. The result is the fantasy "value" per game for each IDP.
- CY (Contract Year) - If a player is playing in the last
year
of his contract, odds are he will perform at
his highest level.
- HL (Health) - If a player participated in all eligible, regular
season games
last year, he has proven himself to be dependable and tough, and
is rewarded accordingly.
- DL, LB or DB - If an IDP is surrounded by best-in-class
talent at the other positions, he will be better allowed to perform
at his best. For
example, if a DB has one or two defensive linemen that are in the
top tier of projected rankings, it safe to assume that there will be a fair
share
of QB hurries and better chances for interceptions.
- SC (Schedule Strength) - Strength of schedule is taken
into
account. Against an “easy” schedule,
your DL and DB corps should prosper, as the opposing team will
likely
fall behind
and
resort
to passing situations. Therefore, the opportunities for sacks,
INTs and tackles down field increase. Against a “hard” schedule,
LB corps should prosper, as the better opponent will tend to
protect its
lead by running
the ball to chew up time. The more run plays, the more opportunities
to accumulate tackles in between the gaps and in the flats.
Once the fantasy "value" per game is established for each IDP, the rankings
and overall values are assigned based on the number of league owners and
number of starters
per
position.
The number of teams used in this analysis is 12 and the starters used are
1 DL, either 3 or 4 LBs, and either 1 or 2 DBs. The rankings provide you with
an order. The overall values give you an equal playing field by which to evaluate
individual defensive and offensive players alike.
If there are any questions about the IDP rankings not answered here, please
email Dave Foral.
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